Combining factors for better predictions of extreme water levels in estuaries
This project developed better ways of estimating how often extreme water levels might happen by combining all the factors that cause them.
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This project improved the methods for determining how likely extreme water levels are to happen in estuaries. It improved the scientific information on which guidance for operating authorities, about designing estuary flood defences, is based. It combined the best of the existing approaches into a new method for assessing overall extreme water levels in estuaries and tidal rivers.
This project looks at tides, surges, flows, wind and waves simultaneously, all of which affect water levels in estuaries and rivers. It includes a review of
- data sources
- single variable extrapolation methods
- data requirements
- methods of assessing and representing dependence between variables
- multi-variable extrapolation methods
The statistical methods created, tested and validated make it easier to estimate how often extreme conditions might happen when brought about by the combined effect of several factors. These methods are now routinely used in UK studies.
This project ran from 1997 to 2000 at a cost of £196,420.