Combining probabilities from different factors to improve the design of flood defences
This project mapped the dependencies between environmental events to find ways of using joint probabilities of them happening when designing flood defences.
Documents
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Details
The combined effect of two or more extreme environmental factors (waves, tide, surge, river flow, rainfall, swell and wind) usually make it more likely that floods will happen. This project used dependence mapping and developed test practice guidelines to encourage using probability methods that combine factors to improve how flood defences are designed.
The results of this project are relevant to most flood risk and defence design calculations. The results would be used mainly by practitioners, such as flood defence designers, but would also be of interest to policy makers, regulators and researchers.
The technical reports are aimed at various audiences from non-specialist users of joint probability methods (encouraging them to adopt the methods without the need for specialist advice) to more experienced users. They also present detailed results from the river flow, surge and daily precipitation analysis, including some time-lagged and spatially separated dependence analyses. These will be useful for hydrologists.
This project ran from 2001 to 2005 at a cost of £225,191.