Development of interim national guidance on non-stationary fluvial flood frequency estimation
New tools and techniques to help us detect and take account of non-stationarity in flood frequency estimation for flood scheme appraisal.
Documents
R package files
The zip files contain results on change point tests, multi-temporal trend testing, split sample tests and non-stationary flood frequency analysis.
Results for change point tests, multi-temporal trend testing, split sample tests and shapefile of results for gauging stations 21032 to 77001
Results of non-stationary flood frequency analysis using time as a covariate for gauging stations 22001 to 76015
Results of non-stationary flood frequency analysis using physical covariates for gauging stations 1001 to 43005
Results of non-stationary flood frequency analysis using physical covariates for gauging stations 43006 to 108001
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Details
This project has developed new tools and techniques to help us detect and take account of non-stationarity in flood frequency estimation for flood scheme appraisal.
You should apply this guidance:
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in the appraisal of all projects. After 1 July 2021 you should submit a short form business case or outline business case to the Environment Agency for assurance and approval. A project that is submitted before then could also be assessed against this guidance to check that it would not lead to different decisions (provided this would not unduly slow completion or significantly add to the cost)
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to your FCERM strategy if you have not already submitted it to the Environment Agency for assurance and approval. We would not usually expect this advice to be applied for existing approved plans and strategies until the next review, unless specific investment projects within them are planned before this. If this is the case however, new project appraisals should adopt the new guidance
You should use this guidance to understand how and when non-stationarity should be included in the appraisal of FCERM projects schemes and strategies. This guidance should be used with the Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management full appraisal guidance.
Updates to this page
Published 26 February 2021Last updated 3 March 2021 + show all updates
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The documents list has been updated to include the R package and digital outputs from the project.
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First published.