New modelling tools for estuary morphological forecasts
A project developing modelling tools to deliver 50 year morphological forecasts and enable estimates of the associated flood risks.
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Details
Estuaries and associated flood risks, sediment regimes and morphology have an impact on local populations and economic activity. Management to minimise flood risk and threats to habitats, such as various human activities and climate change, needs to be informed by robust and credible tools.
The UK Estuaries Research Programme (ERP) was formulated to:
- develop techniques to predict large scale, long-term morphological changes
- measure the resulting sediment-related impacts
- assess the consequences of sediment-related impacts for the management of estuaries
This project aims to help Defra in its responsibilities relating to proposed ‘estuarine interventions’, such as:
- engineering works
- dredging and discharges
- long-term planning to accommodate climate change
Improvements in the UK`s forecasting capabilities are essential to inform shorter-term management and longer-term strategic policy planning.
Outcome
This project develops new modelling tools capable of delivering 50 year morphological forecasts. This combines ‘bottom-up’ (B-U) and ‘top-down’ (T-D) models and enables estimates of the associated flood risks. This will also provide the basis for the sedimentary and dynamical module of an Estuary Management System (EMS) to be delivered in Phase 3 of the ERP.
Several models were applied for different intervention and climate change scenarios to identify impacts on the levels and form of eight UK estuaries.
This project ran from 2004 to 2007 at a cost of £539,190.