Probabilistic flood forecasting scoping study
A study investigating international approaches to probabilistic flood forecasting and considering the issues associated with the introduction of these techniques.
Documents
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Details
Background
Flood forecasts form an important component of the overall flood warning process. However, they’re subject to uncertainties arising from measurement errors and model calibration, as well as other factors, such as rainfall forecasts. Probabilistic flood forecasting techniques attempt to reflect these uncertainties. International research suggests that they should provide stakeholders, such as local authorities, the emergency services and Environment Agency staff, with better information for managing flood events as they develop.
Objectives
The introduction of probabilistic flood forecasting into Environment Agency operational practice will be a major system development over the next few years. This study was commissioned as part of the joint Defra / Environment Agency programme of research to investigate international approaches to probabilistic flood forecasting. It also aimed to consider some of the issues associated with the introduction of these techniques.
This report covers:
- sources of uncertainty in the flood forecasting process
- current approaches within the Environment Agency to assessing uncertainty in flood forecasts
- international research on ensemble flood forecasting techniques
- possible applications of decision support systems
- risk-based forecasting techniques in other (non-water) sectors
Findings
The findings from this project consider:
- research needs
- system development requirements
- process and policy implications
Key stakeholders will need to translate the findings into specific tasks with associated budgets and timescales and consider the highlighted policy and process implications. A programme of regular review and updating of the strategy will also be required.
This project ran from 2006 to 2007 at a cost of £75,932.