Proposed changes for calculating alcohol-related mortality
Applies to England
Read the full outcome
Detail of outcome
There was a positive response to updating the attributable fractions used for the calculation of alcohol-related harm with the consultation questions finding consensus. In addition, other issues for consideration that were raised through responses have been explored.
Public Health England (PHE) will implement the updated attributable fractions as proposed in the consultation document. The affected indicators will be formally reviewed by PHE’s Indicator Methodology Review Group who will ensure that they are statistically robust. In accordance with the findings of the consultation, PHE will produce and publish a new time series of data going back to 2016.
Updated data will be made available in the Local Alcohol Profiles for England (LAPE) in October 2021.
Detail of feedback received
The original consultation proposed the following questions about the change in methodology:
- do you agree with the proposal to update the AAFs in this way?
- the change will improve the accuracy of published statistics but will result in a break in the data series at the date the correction is implemented – is this an acceptable scenario for you?
- is the proposed date of introduction (2016) to align with the alcohol consumption prevalence data used appropriate?
- do you think your stakeholders and partners will readily understand and accept that the reduction is a result of a change in methodology and not necessarily a real reduction in the harm alcohol causes to individuals?
- based on the latest evidence, the new AAFs changed the upshift (the extent to which people in surveys may underestimate their drinking) down to 40% from the 59% used previously – is this your preferred approach?
Responses to the questions of the consultation were positive and there was general support for the change in methodology along these lines.
Other issues raised for consideration included the time lag between prevalence and outcome involved in the calculation, potential changes to the routine updating of AAFs, specific methodological points about the upshift and whether to include one at all, why former and never drinkers have been distinguished for particular diseases, potentially accounting for differences in deprivation, ethnicity, region and others in the calculation, the potential to embargo the update, and the provision of a clear explanation of change. These issues have all been addressed in the response document.
Original consultation
Consultation description
This consultation gathered views on our proposed changes to the methods used to calculate and update attributable fractions for alcohol-related mortality and hospital admissions.
Alcohol consumption is a known risk factor for many chronic diseases, such as coronary heart disease and stroke. In 2018 there were approximately 24,720 alcohol-related deaths, and during 2018 and 2019 approximately 357,660 hospital admissions in England. This represented 2.1% of total hospital admissions, 62% of which were males and over half (57%) were aged between 45 and 74 years old.
Public Health England (PHE) has recently updated the estimated risks for developing diseases associated with drinking alcohol compared to those who do not drink (relative risk) currently used to produce the alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) for indicators in Local Alcohol Profiles for England (LAPE). PHE published alcohol-attributable fractions for England: an update, this identified the most recent and robust evidence on the relative risks of disease associated with alcohol consumption, and the proportion of disease cases that can be attributed to alcohol. It updates the AAF estimates that were last published in 2013.
PHE proposes using these updated AAFs for its next publication of alcohol-related mortality and admissions. The consultation presents analysis showing the impact of changing to the updated AAFs on the rates of alcohol-related mortality and hospital admissions as currently published.
Documents
Updates to this page
Published 1 March 2021Last updated 28 September 2021 + show all updates
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Added Response to consultation on proposed changes to the calculation of alcohol-related mortality and hospital admissions.
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Updated consultation dates to run from 1 March 2021 to 12 April 2021.
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First published.