An estimate of the transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7-N501Y in South East England, 22 December 2020
Paper prepared by the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).
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An estimate of the transmissibility and severity of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant prepared by the CMMID COVID-19 Working Group at LSHTM. It was considered at SAGE 74 on 22 December 2020.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This paper should be read alongside the SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 22 December 2020 released under SAGE 74.
This paper contains medium-term scenarios of the period following Christmas. These are not forecasts or predictions, but illustrative scenarios exploring potential implications for the epidemic with the lens of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant.
See more information on the new SARS-CoV-2 variant.
This paper has also been published on the CMMID repository.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions in this document have been made to remove any security markings.