Carbon leakage prospects under Phase III of the EU ETS and beyond
Report investigating the risk of carbon leakage under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) so far, and over Phase III and beyond.
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The UK government recognises industry concerns around competitiveness and carbon leakage and is committed to ensuring that sectors genuinely at significant risk of carbon leakage are protected from this risk. In June 2014, we published a research project commissioned by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and undertaken by Vivid Economics and Ecofys, which investigates the occurrence of carbon leakage so far and the fundamental drivers of carbon leakage for a selection of industrial sectors and assesses the measures in place for its mitigation.
The report models the risk of carbon leakage for 24 industrial sectors, and was produced in consultation with industry stakeholders. Modelling analysis shows that in the absence of any mitigating policy measures (such as free allocation of allowances), no allowance for carbon abatement potential, and no increase in carbon regulation outside of the European Union, a number of sectors are at risk of leakage. Given these assumptions, the modelling analysis shows higher rates of carbon leakage than would be expected to occur in reality. The views expressed in the report are those of its writers, and do not represent an official position of the UK government.