COVID-19 compared with NSRA pandemic influenza planning assumptions (Draft), 4 March 2020
Draft paper prepared for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Paper by the SAGE secretariat on the understanding of COVID-19 relative to the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) pandemic influenza planning assumptions. It was considered at SAGE 13 on 5 March 2020.
This is an update of the papers tabled at SAGE 11 and 12. The final version was tabled at SAGE 14.
These outputs should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather draft planning assumptions.
It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. These modelling outputs are subject to uncertainty given the evidence available at the time, and dependent on the assumptions made.
Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions within this document have been made to remove any security markings.