Research and analysis

DHSC/ONS/GAD/HO: Direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity, 15 July 2020

Paper prepared by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), Office for National Statistics (ONS), Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) and Home Office (HO).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 7 August 2020
• Last updated: 18 September 2020 — See all updates

Documents

Direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity - 15 July 2020

PDF, 2.73 MB, 188 pages

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Direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity (update) - September 2020

PDF, 3.55 MB, 190 pages

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Details

Joint paper on direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity. It was considered at SAGE 48 on 23 July 2020.

It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

September update

The document released in September is a development of the original document and was not tabled at SAGE.

Some minor elements of this paper’s summaries of estimates have been corrected to better reflect the content presented in the methodological annexes. The analyses’ results and conclusions drawn remain unchanged, but the consistency of how results are presented throughout the paper has improved:

• the medium-term QALY impact of Category C3 as presented in Annex C3 has been added to Figures 2 and 3; summary Table 2; the summary of impacts at the start of Annex C; and Annex F
• in Figure 2, the Category D QALY impact has been corrected to match Annex D and summary Table 2
• in Table 2, the Category D2 QALY impact for April 2020 to March 2021 has been corrected from 17,000 to minus 17,000, to match Annex D and Figures 2 and 3
• in Table 52 in Annex F, Category C3 QALY impacts from mortality and morbidity now correctly reflect estimates in Annex C3
• in Table 53 in Annex G, the summary of QALYs lost due to excess deaths in the unmitigated scenario category B has been corrected to ‘5M to 10M QALYs lost’, matching the estimates presented in the third column

Published 7 August 2020
Last updated 18 September 2020 + show all updates

1. 18 September 2020

   Added a development of the original paper.

2. 7 August 2020

   First published.