Estimate of the number and proportion of offenders on licence recalled to custody in June 2024
Published 25 October 2024
Applies to England and Wales
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1. Background, data and sources
Currently, all offenders serving determinate and indeterminate sentences released on licence can be recalled back to custody. Probation can request a recall if the offender breaches their licence conditions, if their risk has escalated beyond what can be safely managed in the community (and that risk cannot be managed by additional licence conditions or controls).
Over the past 10 years, the number of prisoners in custody on recall has more than doubled, from 5,260 on 30 June 2014 to 12,199 on 30 June 2024[footnote 1]. This note explains a proxy estimate used in the Lord Chancellor’s Oral Statement (Sentencing Review and Prison Capacity) of 22 October 2024 on the current recall rate of offenders in the licence population.
Probation caseload
Probation Service regions submit monthly ‘probation listings’ which include information on offenders starting and terminating probation supervision each month, as well as those supervised on the probation caseload at the end of each quarter. This data is used in this ad hoc to estimate the number of offenders on the probation caseload who were on licence at the end of May 2024.
Recalls
Prison establishments record details for individual inmates on the prison IT system (Prison-NOMIS). The information recorded includes details such as date of birth, sex, religion, nationality, ethnic origin, custody type, offence, reception and release dates and, for sentenced prisoners, sentence length. This dataset is used in this ad hoc to estimate the number of recall admissions that were received into custody in June 2024.
As the figures in this ad hoc have been drawn from administrative IT systems, as with any large-scale recording system, they are subject to possible errors with data entry and processing. In addition, as they are based on different sources and methodology, this dataset will not align with regularly published recall and caseload data from Offender Management Statistics.
Further information on recalls, as well as recall statistics more generally, can be found as part of the quarterly publication documentation in the Guide to Offender Management Statistics.
2. Table
Table 1. Number of recalls, offenders on licence caseload, and the proxy proportion of the licence caseload recalled in a month
| Number of recalls (June 2024) |
Number of offenders on licence caseload (31 May 2024) |
Proxy proportion of licence caseload recalled (June 2024) |
|---|---|---|
| 3,112 | 47,753 | 6.52% |
In June 2024, there were an estimated 3,112 offenders admitted to custody on recall. There were 47,753 offenders who were estimated to be on the probation licence caseload on 31 May 2024. The number of those recalled in June equates to 6.5% of the licence caseload in May.
Limitations
This estimate is a proxy indication of the recall rate using the volume of recalls compared to the population under supervision, but has the following limitations:
- it is a ratio rather than a rate; the populations in scope for the two halves of the calculation are not the same, meaning it is an estimate only
- as this ratio compares the number of recalls in a given month against a snapshot of the licence population at that time, regardless of how long they have been on licence, it should be considered an estimate only and does not represent the proportion of offenders that are recalled at any point in their licence period
- the number of recalls may not be the same as the number of individuals recalled, for example, it is possible that a small number of individuals could have been recalled twice in the same month
- it compares a snapshot with a time range; the probation caseload data shows how many are being supervised at the end of May 2024, but does not include those who joined or left the supervision caseload within June 2024
- a change in this ratio could be the result of changes in the caseload rather than any change in the tendency of individuals to be recalled
- it is dependent on the accuracy and timeliness of recording around the caseload and recalls, and in particular the transfer of those recalled out of the post-release caseload back into the pre-release Probation caseload
3. Contacts
Media contacts
Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office.
020 3334 3536
Statistical contacts
Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to Analysis at the Ministry of Justice: [email protected]
Ministry of Justice
Analysis Directorate: Sentencing and Offender Management Analysis
10th Floor
102 Petty France
London
SW1H 9AJ