Research and analysis

Impact of Interventions TFG: The UK’s 4 nations’ autumn interventions (update), 26 November 2020

Update paper prepared by the Impact of Interventions Task and Finish Group (TFG) of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 27 November 2020

Documents

The UK’s 4 nations’ autumn interventions (version 2) - 26 November 2020

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Details

Paper on the UK’s 4 nations’ autumn interventions. It was considered at SAGE 70 on 26 November 2020.

The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

A previous version, version 1, of this paper analysed older PHE data and was presented to SAGE 69 on 19 November. Soon after version 1 of this paper was finished, at SPI-M’s request, PHE helpfully released a large amount of data including approximately 8 million negative test results not previously shared with SPI-M modellers. This, version 2, of this paper presents the analysis of this more recent and reliable data. Only the data from England are changed. The conclusions of the 2 papers are the same except that in version 1:

• the patterns in England described here emerged 4 days earlier
• epidemics shrank in all English LTLAs under tier 3 restrictions

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 27 November 2020