Guidance

Income-related benefits: estimates of take-up 2017 to 2018: statistical notice

Published 30 January 2020

Applies to England, Scotland and Wales

© Crown copyright 2020

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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-related-benefits-changes-to-the-estimates-of-take-up-2017-to-2018-statistical-notice/income-related-benefits-estimates-of-take-up-2017-to-2018-statistical-notice

This statistical notice advises users of 4 methodological changes to the income-related benefits: estimates of take-up Official Statistics publication.

The changes will take effect for the 2017 to 2018 publication, due for release on 27 February 2020.

Comparisons to earlier years should be treated with caution as these changes have only been applied to the 2016 to 2017, and 2017 and 2018 results. A decision was taken to provide updated results for 2016 to 2017 to give a comparison to the previous year.

The 4 changes are:

  1. improvements to the modelling of State Pension receipt

  2. Pension Credit (PC) calculations now take into account mixed-age couples[footnote 1] working-age benefits (Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA), Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) and Income Support (IS))

  3. savings information is now taken into account in capital calculations

  4. Support for Mortgage Interest (SMI) entitlement is removed from estimated IS and PC entitlement amounts

These changes provide an improved approach to estimating eligibility of caseload and expenditure take-up which:

  • reduce the estimated number of Entitled Non Recipients (ENRs)
  • reduce the estimated unclaimed amount

Further details on these changes will be presented in the income-related benefits: estimates of take-up background and methodology report that will be published on 27 February 2020.

If you have any queries about these changes, please send them by email to: [email protected]

Background

1. The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) uses a complex methodology to estimate the take-up of income-related benefits.

2. The following changes were made in the Policy Simulation Model (PSM) stage of the methodology – where the average number of entitled non-recipients and average amount of benefit unclaimed are calculated.

3. Improving the State Pension modelling by making use of more information from respondents.

4. PC calculations now take into account mixed-age couples working-age benefits (IS, ESA and JSA). This involves removing the calculated IS, ESA and JSA amount from PC.

5. When no capital income is declared savings information is used in capital calculations.

6. SMI used to be paid within PC. SMI is now paid out separately as a loan. SMI has therefore been removed from the PC calculations.

Effect of the changes

These changes improve the estimation of eligibility and so reduce the estimated number of ENRs and the estimated unclaimed amount.

For example, for 2017 to 2018, it is estimated that these changes affect the estimated PC take-up rate by approximately 2 percentage points (increase) for caseload and 4 percentage points (increase) for expenditure.

Changes to HB, IS and ESA are negligible (increase is less than 1 percentage point) for both caseload and expenditure. The exact scale of the effect could vary between years.

  1. A mixed-age couple is one where one member is aged above the PC qualifying age, and the other is aged below the PC qualifying age ↩

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