LSHTM: autumn and winter scenarios 2021 to 2022, 13 October 2021
Papers prepared by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).
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Paper from LSHTM summarising modelling on scenarios for COVID-19 over autumn and winter, with a supplementary paper on contingency measures (Plan B). It was considered at SAGE 96 on 14 October 2021.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
These papers should be read alongside the accompanying modelling papers from SAGE 96:
- SPI-M-O: Summary of modelling for scenarios for COVID-19 autumn and winter 2021 to 2022, 13 October 2021
- University of Warwick: Projections of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease until June 2022 - the action of waning efficacy and boosters, 12 October 2021
- Imperial College London: autumn and winter 2021 to 2022: potential COVID-19 epidemic trajectories - Part 1, 13 October 2021
- University of Bristol: Trade off between population immunity and return-to-work for COVID-19 control, autumn and winter 2021 scenarios, 12 October 2021
The supplementary paper should also be read alongside the following paper from SAGE 96:
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.