Research and analysis

National Transport Model (NTMv2R): analytical review

Analysis of an innovative workstream to allow stakeholders to gain understanding of the National Transport Model's (NTMv2R) methodologies and behaviour.

• From: Department for Transport
• Published: 14 December 2020

Applies to England, Scotland and Wales

Documents

National Transport Model (NTMv2R): Analytical Review

PDF, 2.39 MB, 110 pages

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Details

Our National Transport Model is a tool that we use in the Department for Transport (DfT) to estimate the impact of transport policies and forecasting assumptions on key travel indicators such as traffic levels, congestion and vehicle emissions.

In April 2019, we published our latest appraisal and modelling strategy (AMS), which was designed to keep guidance relevant and fit for purpose over the coming years.

The AMS, which includes a focus on innovative or new techniques, also stresses the importance of opening up our National Transport Model. Therefore, alongside the most recent update of the National Transport Model (NTMv2R), we launched a workstream aiming to fulfil our AMS objective of opening up the model to allow stakeholders to gain a full and widespread understanding of both the model’s methodologies and its behaviour.

We are presenting the results in this analytical review, which details how we exposed the National Transport Model to various stress tests and developed an innovative backcast methodology.

This report is being published alongside a peer review and a detailed overview of the model’s structure and its recent update.

Published 14 December 2020