Research and analysis

NERVTAG: Long term evolution of SARS-CoV-2, 10 February 2022

Updated paper prepared by the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 18 February 2022

Documents

NERVTAG: Long term evolution of SARS-CoV-2, 10 February 2022

PDF, 140 KB, 15 pages

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Details

Paper by NERVTAG on scenarios for the longer term evolution of SARS-CoV-2. It was considered at SAGE 105 on 10 February 2022.

The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing and is an update of a previously published paper ‘Long term evolution of SARS-CoV-2, 26 July 2021’ from SAGE 94. This update includes consideration of the Omicron variant, which emerged several months after the original paper was written. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

The following members of NERVTAG authored this paper: Julian Hiscox, Wendy Barclay, Ravindra Gupta, Peter Horby, Maria Zambon, Paul Kellam.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 18 February 2022