Out of court disposals pilot: cautions reoffending analysis
Analysis of the 12-month proven reoffending outcomes for offenders given cautions under the adult out of court disposal pilot (2014 to 2015).
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Between November 2014 and October 2015, 3 police forces piloted a simplified OOCD framework, A final evaluation report for the pilot was produced by Sheffield Hallam University in conjunction with Ipsos MORI. The original evaluation included an analysis of 3-month proven reoffending in the pilot compared to the counterfactual areas for offenders given an OOCD during the first 3 months of the pilot. The impact evaluation did not find a statistically significant difference between reoffending in the counterfactual and pilot areas.
The summary provides a follow-up analysis of the proven 12-month reoffending outcomes between the pilot and counterfactual areas for those receiving Simple or Conditional Cautions. The study used a quasi-experimental methodology. Counterfactual areas were chosen to be a good comparison for the pilot areas and some differences between the areas were accounted for through modelling. There are, however, likely to be unobserved differences between the areas compared.