PHE: Estimates of impact of interventions based on time use, 2 April 2020
Paper prepared by the Public Health England (PHE) Modelling Group.
Documents
Details
Paper by PHE on estimates of impact of interventions based on time use. It was considered at SAGE 22 on 2 April 2020.
This is 1 of 4 papers informing the SPI-M-O consensus view: 13 April review of social distancing measures as published under SAGE 22 and should be read in that context alongside the other documents for SAGE 22. The SPI-M-O consensus view summarises the main insights across the available evidence and modelling at the time.
These results should not be interpreted as a forecast, but rather illustrative outputs under a set of assumptions to inform wider discussion. These modelling outputs are subject to uncertainty given the evidence available at the time, and dependent on the assumptions made.
It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.