Potential effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on a COVID-19 epidemic in the UK, 26 February 2020
Paper on the effect of behavioural and social interventions on the reasonable worst case scenario prepared for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Paper addressing the potential effectiveness of key behavioural and social (non-pharmaceutical) interventions on containing, delaying and reducing the health impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK.
The paper focuses on:
- school closures
- isolation of individuals with COVID-19 symptoms
- voluntary isolation of households with an individual who has symptoms
- broader social distancing measures
The paper was discussed at SAGE 11 on 27 February 2020.
This evidence was often complied very rapidly during a fast-moving response and should be viewed in this context. The paper presented here is the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing, and the conclusions were formed on this basis. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded at a later date.
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Published 20 March 2020Last updated 13 May 2022 + show all updates
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First published.