Reasonable worst-case planning scenario, 29 March 2020
Paper prepared by Cabinet Office.
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Paper by Cabinet Office and endorsed by SPI-M-O and SAGE on a reasonable worst case (RWC) scenario. It was considered at SAGE 21 on 31 March 2020.
These outputs should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather scenarios to inform planning at the time. Reasonable worst case scenarios are considered for planning to ensure that we are able to respond to a range of scenarios.
SAGE provides scientific advice to government. It does not make decisions on what scenario government should be planning for. The Cabinet Office Civil Contingencies Secretariat advised that government should plan based on the RWC scenario presented.
It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. These modelling outputs are subject to uncertainty given the evidence available at the time, and dependent on the assumptions made.
Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions in this document have been made to remove any security markings.