Research and analysis

SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 10 June 2020

Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 10 July 2020

Documents

SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19 - 10 June 2020

PDF, 2.98 MB, 9 pages

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Details

Consensus statement from SPI-M-O to SAGE. It was considered at SAGE 41 on 11 June 2020.

It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.

Note that ‘regions’ in points 8 and 26 refers to English NHS regions. Also note that the footnote on page 4 should read: “The growth rate, λe^λt is the slope of the exponential curve y=e^λt, where y is the number of new infections, and t is time, given in days. This approximates to λ at small values of t.”

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 10 July 2020