SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 12 May 2021
Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Consensus statement from SPI-M-O on COVID-19. It was considered at SAGE 89 on 13 May 2021. The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This paper contains SPI-M comments on surge vaccination. Please note that this is the view of SPI-M from an epidemiological perspective relating to transmission only, and advice on surge vaccination – incorporating any operational considerations – is the responsibility of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI).
This statement should be read alongside the following papers also released under SAGE 89.
- “JUNIPER: Potential community transmission of B.1.617.2 inferred by S-gene positivity - briefing note, 11 May 2021”
- “CMMID COVID-19 Working Group: Modelling importations and local transmission of B.1.617.2 in the UK, 12 May 2021”
This paper contains estimates of the reproduction number (R) and growth rate.See the latest R value and growth rates, and further background. The devolved administrations publish estimates for their own nations.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions in this document have been made to remove any security markings.