SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 27 April 2020
Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Consensus statement from SAGE subgroup on modelling, SPI-M, on COVID-19. It was discussed at SAGE 29 on 28 April 2020.
This paper contains estimates of R for some regions of the UK. Please note that these are illustrative examples from a single modelling group, and not an agreed consensus estimate from SAGE.
R is an average value that can vary in different parts of the country, communities, and subsections of the population. It cannot be measured directly so there is always some uncertainty around its exact value. Regional estimates are subject to greater uncertainty given the lower number of cases and increased variation. It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.