SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 3 March 2021
Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
Documents
Details
Consensus statement from SPI-M-O on COVID-19. It was considered by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser and UK Chief Medical Officer on 4 March 2021 during a week in which no SAGE was held, and also presented at the next meeting, SAGE 83 on 11 March 2021.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This paper contains estimates of the reproduction number (R) and growth rate for the UK, 4 nations and NHS England regions.
Different modelling groups use different data sources to estimate these values using mathematical models that simulate the spread of infections. Some may even use all these sources of information to adjust their models to better reflect the real-world situation. There is uncertainty in all these data sources, which is why estimates can vary between different models, and why we do not rely on one model. Evidence from several models is considered, discussed, combined, and the growth rate and R estimates are then presented as ranges.
See the R value and growth rates, and further background..
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions in this document have been made to remove any security markings.