SPI-M-O: COVID-19 planning scenarios and current estimates of severity and length of stay in hospital, 11 May 2020
Planning scenarios from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Paper on planning scenarios by SPI-M-O. This was considered at SAGE 35 on 12 May 2020.
The paper is an assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. These modelling outputs are subject to uncertainty given the evidence available at the time, and dependent on the assumptions made. Please note that this was superseded by the May reasonable-worst case planning scenario (RWCS) agreed by SAGE and released under SAGE 38.
These outputs should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather scenarios to inform planning at the time. They do not represent the full range of possible outcomes and no likelihood is attached to any of these scenarios at this stage. The scenarios should not be considered a RWCS. It is possible that future incidence and demand could be considerably higher or lower than that presented here.
SAGE provides scientific advice to government. It does not make decisions on what scenario government should be planning for.
Annex C on short-term forecasts reflect the process and data sources at the time of writing. For a more complete set of caveats and sources, please see the cover notes for the short-term forecasts released under SAGE 35.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions in this document have been made to remove any security markings.