Research and analysis

SPI-M-O: COVID-19 short-term forecasting: Proposed process for discussion, 2 April 2020

Paper on a proposed process for short-term forecasting by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 11 September 2020

Documents

Short-term forecasting: Proposed process for discussion (S0104) - 2 April 2020

PDF, 251 KB, 3 pages

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Details

SPI-M-O paper on a proposed process for short-term forecasting. This was considered at SAGE 22 on 2 April 2020, and tabled alongside a pilot forecast.

This is a draft proposal for discussion, and was superseded by an update draft released under SAGE 23.

Please note that this paper is not representative of the forecasting outputs or process that was eventually piloted and adopted for use. The short-term forecasts developed over the period to reflect changing data availability and context.

It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the available data and evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 11 September 2020