Research and analysis

SPI-M-O: Medium-term projections, 29 September 2021

Medium-term projections prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 15 October 2021

Documents

SPI-M-O: Medium-term projections, 29 September 2021

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Details

Medium-term projections from SPI-M-O. These were considered by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser and UK Chief Medical Officer on 30 September 2021 during a week in which no SAGE was held. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

These are not forecasts or predictions, and cannot reflect recent changes in transmission that have not yet filtered through into surveillance data, such as hospital admissions and deaths. They do not account for the impact of future policy or behavioural changes that might affect transmission, nor seasonal effects that may affect transmission. The potential impact of vaccinations and school opening/closures is included. They are based only on the observable trends and data available at the time the projections were produced.

Projections are particularly uncertain during periods of transition, for example when significant interventions are introduced or relaxed.

See more information on the medium-term projections.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 15 October 2021