Research and analysis

Transmission-reducing interventions: prediction of reduction in overall attack rate and peak incidence from simple models, 24 February 2020

Paper prepared by Professor Julia Gog, Cambridge University, predicting transmission reduction by non-pharmaceutical interventions.

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 12 June 2020

Documents

Transmission-reducing interventions: prediction of reduction in overall attack rate and peak incidence from simple models - 24 February 2020

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Details

Paper prepared by Julia Gog, Cambridge University, predicting the reduction in overall attack rate and peak incidence of COVID-19 from simple models. It was considered at SAGE 10 on 25 February 2020.

These results should not be interpreted as a forecast, but rather illustrative outputs under a set of assumptions to inform wider discussion. These modelling outputs are subject to uncertainty given the evidence available at the time, and dependent on the assumptions made.

It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 12 June 2020