Guidance

Country policy and information note: security situation, Ukraine, June 2022 (accessible)

Updated 27 July 2022

Version 1.0

June 2022

Preface

Purpose

This note provides country of origin information (COI) and analysis of COI for use by Home Office decision makers handling particular types of protection and human rights claims (as set out in the Introduction section). It is not intended to be an exhaustive survey of a particular subject or theme.

It is split into 2 parts: (1) an assessment of COI and other evidence; and (2) COI. These are explained in more detail below.

Assessment

This section analyses the evidence relevant to this note - that is information in the COI section; refugee/human rights laws and policies; and applicable caselaw - by describing this and its inter-relationships, and provides an assessment of, in general, whether one or more of the following applies:

• a person is reasonably likely to face a real risk of persecution or serious harm

• that the general humanitarian situation is so severe that there are substantial grounds for believing that there is a real risk of serious harm because conditions amount to inhuman or degrading treatment as within paragraphs 339C and 339CA(iii) of the Immigration Rules/Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)

• that the security situation is such that there are substantial grounds for believing there is a real risk of serious harm because there exists a serious and individual threat to a civilian’s life or person by reason of indiscriminate violence in a situation of international or internal armed conflict as within paragraphs 339C and 339CA(iv) of the Immigration Rules

• a person is able to obtain protection from the state (or quasi state bodies)

• a person is reasonably able to relocate within a country or territory

• a claim is likely to justify granting asylum, humanitarian protection or other form of leave, and

• if a claim is refused, it is likely or unlikely to be certifiable as ‘clearly unfounded’ under section 94 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002.

Decision makers must, however, still consider all claims on an individual basis, taking into account each case’s specific facts.

Country of origin information

The country information in this note has been carefully selected in accordance with the general principles of COI research as set out in the Common EU [European Union] Guidelines for Processing Country of Origin Information (COI), April 2008, and the Austrian Centre for Country of Origin and Asylum Research and Documentation’s (ACCORD), Researching Country Origin Information – Training Manual, 2013. Namely, taking into account the COI’s relevance, reliability, accuracy, balance, currency, transparency and traceability.

The structure and content of the country information section follows a terms of reference which sets out the general and specific topics relevant to this note.

All information included in the note was published or made publicly available on or before the ‘cut-off’ date(s) in the country information section. Any event taking place or report/article published after these date(s) is not included.

All information is publicly accessible or can be made publicly available. Sources and the information they provide are carefully considered before inclusion. Factors relevant to the assessment of the reliability of sources and information include:

• the motivation, purpose, knowledge and experience of the source

• how the information was obtained, including specific methodologies used

• the currency and detail of information

• whether the COI is consistent with and/or corroborated by other sources.

Multiple sourcing is used to ensure that the information is accurate and balanced, which is compared and contrasted where appropriate so that a comprehensive and up-to-date picture is provided of the issues relevant to this note at the time of publication.

The inclusion of a source is not, however, an endorsement of it or any view(s) expressed.

Each piece of information is referenced in a footnote. Full details of all sources cited and consulted in compiling the note are listed alphabetically in the bibliography.

Feedback

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Independent Advisory Group on Country Information

The Independent Advisory Group on Country Information (IAGCI) was set up in March 2009 by the Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration to support him in reviewing the efficiency, effectiveness and consistency of approach of COI produced by the Home Office.

The IAGCI welcomes feedback on the Home Office’s COI material. It is not the function of the IAGCI to endorse any Home Office material, procedures or policy. The IAGCI may be contacted at:

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Email: [email protected]

Information about the IAGCI’s work and a list of the documents which have been reviewed by the IAGCI can be found on the Independent Chief Inspector’s pages of the gov.uk website.

Assessment

This section was updated on 16 June 2022

1. Introduction

1.1 Basis of claim

1.1.1 That the security situation in Ukraine is such that there are substantial grounds for believing there is a real risk of serious harm due to a serious and individual threat to a civilian’s life or person by reason of indiscriminate violence in a situation of international or internal armed conflict, as defined in paragraphs 339C and 339CA(iv) of the Immigration Rules;

and/or

1.1.2 That the general humanitarian situation in Ukraine is so severe that there are substantial grounds for believing that there is a real risk of serious harm because conditions amount to torture or inhuman or degrading treatment as defined in paragraphs 339C and 339CA(iii) of the Immigration Rules/Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

2. Consideration of issues

2.1 Credibility

2.1.1 For information on assessing credibility, see the instruction on Assessing Credibility and Refugee Status.

2.1.2 Decision makers must also check if there has been a previous application for a UK visa or another form of leave. Asylum applications matched to visas should be investigated prior to the asylum interview (see the Asylum Instruction on Visa Matches, Asylum Claims from UK Visa Applicants).

2.1.3 In cases where there are doubts surrounding a person’s claimed place of origin, decision makers should also consider the need to conduct language analysis testing (see the Asylum Instruction on Language Analysis).

2.2 Exclusion

2.2.1 Decision makers must consider whether there are serious reasons for considering whether one (or more) of the exclusion clauses is applicable. Each case must be considered on its individual facts and merits.

2.2.2 If the person is excluded from the Refugee Convention, they will also be excluded from a grant of humanitarian protection (which has a wider range of exclusions than refugee status).

2.2.3 For guidance on exclusion and restricted leave, see the Asylum Instruction on Exclusion under Articles 1F and 33(2) of the Refugee Convention, Humanitarian Protection and the instruction on Restricted Leave.

Official – sensitive: Start of section

The information on this page has been removed as it is restricted for internal Home Office use.

Official – sensitive: End of section

2.3 Convention reason(s)

2.3.1 A severe humanitarian situation and/or a state of civil instability and/or where law and order has broken down, which might exist in some places outside of government control, do not of themselves give rise to a well-founded fear of persecution for a Refugee Convention reason.

2.3.2 In the absence of a link to one of the 5 Refugee Convention grounds necessary to be recognised as a refugee, the question to address is whether the person will face a real risk of serious harm and qualify for Humanitarian Protection (HP).

2.3.3 However, before considering whether a person requires protection because of the general humanitarian and/or security situation, decision makers must consider if the person faces persecution for a Refugee Convention reason. Where the person qualifies for protection under the Refugee Convention, decision makers do not need to consider if there are substantial grounds for believing the person faces a real risk of serious harm meriting a grant of HP.

2.3.4 For further guidance on Convention reasons see the instruction on Assessing Credibility and Refugee Status.

2.3.5 For guidance on Humanitarian Protection see the Asylum Instruction, Humanitarian Protection.

2.4 Risk

2.4.1 Paragraphs 339C and 339CA(iv) of the Immigration Rules sets out that a real risk of serious harm can include a ‘serious and individual threat to a civilian’s life or person by reason of indiscriminate violence in situations of international or internal armed conflict’. However, it only applies to civilians who must be non-combatants, but could include former combatants who have genuinely and permanently renounced armed activity.

a. Is there an international or internal armed conflict?

2.4.2 There is an international armed conflict taking place within Ukraine.

2.4.3 On 24 February 2022, following months of Russian military build-up near the border with Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a ‘special military operation’ which culminated in a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border from the north, east and south, launching missiles at major cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa. The vast majority of the fighting in the first month, and during subsequent months of the invasion has taken place in the northern, eastern and southern regions of Ukraine (see Security incidents and developments).

b. Is there indiscriminate violence taking place?

2.4.4 There is evidence that indicates that Russian forces are carrying out indiscriminate attacks across a number of regions in Ukraine.

2.4.5 Throughout the conflict, despite Russian claims that armed attacks have only been directed against military facilities, civilian infrastructure across Ukraine has been deliberately and repeatedly attacked by Russian heavy missiles and airstrikes. There have been reports of schools, hospitals and residential buildings all being deliberately shelled by Russian forces, as well as firing at civilian evacuation routes from cities across Ukraine. The city of Mariupol in the Donetsk region has been one of the worst affected areas (see Security incidents and developments, Casualties and Weaponry and tactics used).

2.4.6 There have been reports of Russian troops systematically abducting civilians in occupied areas of Ukraine, including mayors, members of local councils, activists and journalists. Following release, multiple abductees reported being tortured or otherwise pressured into cooperating with Russian troops. Additionally, following the withdrawal of Russian forces from the city of Bucha in the Kyiv region of Ukraine, there were reports that Russian troops had carried out extra-judicial killings of civilians. There have also been reports of sexual violence committed against Ukrainian citizens in areas occupied by Russian forces. The ICC, the Ukrainian government and several other European countries have initiated War Crimes investigations as a result of the concerns (see Security incidents and developments, Weaponry and tactics used and War Crimes and Crimes against Humanity).

c. Is the indiscriminate violence at “such a high level” that “a civilian faces a risk to their life or person simply by being there”?

2.4.7 The vast majority of the violence since the invasion began has taken place in northern, eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. At the time of writing, it is considered that there is a real risk of serious harm by reason of indiscriminate violence in the Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Kyiv City regions of Ukraine.

2.4.8 It should be noted that while the numbers of reported fatalities in Ukraine represent a small percentage of the population in each of the regions, it is very likely that the true number of civilian deaths across Ukraine is higher. The armed conflict in Ukraine is continuing and it is not clear when the true figures regarding civilian casualties will be known.

2.4.9 Decision makers should note that as the conflict continues, the levels of violence in each region may increase or decrease depending on the situation. Decision makers will therefore need to access up to date reporting on the conflict in Ukraine in order to assist them with their assessment on whether or not violence is at such a high level that a civilian faces a risk to their life or person simply by being present in a certain region.

2.4.10 Even where there is not in general a real risk of serious harm by reason of indiscriminate violence in a situation of armed conflict, decision makers must consider whether there are particular factors relevant to the person’s circumstances which might nevertheless place them at risk. The more a person is able to show that they are specifically affected by factors particular to their personal circumstances, the lower the level of indiscriminate violence required for them to be at a real risk of serious harm.

2.4.11 OHCHR reported that the vast majority of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes. They additionally stated that the actual figures of civilian casualties may be considerably higher as many reports are still pending corroboration (see Casualties).

2.4.12 While accurate reliable fatality numbers are difficult to obtain during times of conflict, the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), recorded the following cumulative civilian casualties by the following dates:

Date	Civilians killed	Civilians injured	Total
1 April 2022	1,276	1,981	3,257
2 May 2022	3,153	3,316	6,469
1 June 2022	4,148	4,945	9,094
15 June 2022	4,452	5,531	9,983

2.4.13 Based on information obtained by OHCHR, there have been roughly 270 civilians being killed per week of the invasion, although these figures are likely to be higher in reality. There are also reports of mass graves being used in the besieged city of Mariupol and in the formally occupied town of Bucha. Also, while the true numbers of civilian fatalities are likely to be higher than the figures reported by OHCHR, at the time of writing they make up between 0.001% and 0.002% of the total population of Ukraine (see Casualties).

2.4.14 For guidance on considering serious harm where there is a situation of indiscriminate violence in an armed conflict, including consideration of enhanced risk factors, see the Asylum Instruction, Humanitarian Protection.

2.4.15 For further guidance on assessing risk, see the instruction on Assessing Credibility and Refugee Status.

d. Humanitarian situation

2.4.16 Available evidence indicates that civilians in areas which have been affected by the violence or are under Russian siege may not have access to food, water, electricity, heating, medical supplies, shelter, phone coverage and basic household items (see Security incidents and developments and Weaponry and tactics used).

2.4.17 When these cumulative factors are considered alongside a person’s individual circumstances, the humanitarian situation may be so severe a person is likely to face a real risk of serious harm with conditions amounting to torture or inhuman or degrading treatment as defined in paragraphs 339C and 339CA(iii) of the Immigration Rules/Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Each will case need to be considered on its facts, with the onus on the person to demonstrate that they face a real risk of serious harm.

2.5 Protection

2.5.1 Due to levels of indiscriminate violence in certain regions at the time of writing, protection from the state is unavailable.

2.5.2 For further guidance on assessing the availability of state protection, see the instruction on Assessing Credibility and Refugee Status.

2.6 Internal relocation

2.6.1 Due to the levels of indiscriminate violence in certain regions and the unpredictable and fast moving nature of the conflict, internal relocation within Ukraine is not considered reasonable at the time of writing.

2.6.2 For further guidance on internal relocation see the instruction on Assessing Credibility and Refugee Status.

2.7 Certification

2.7.1 Where a claim is refused, it is unlikely to be certifiable as ‘clearly unfounded’ under section 94 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002.

2.7.2 For further guidance on certification, see Certification of Protection and Human Rights claims under section 94 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002 (clearly unfounded claims).

Country information

This section was updated on 1 April 2022

3. Map of Ukraine and population of regions

3.1 Map

^{[footnote 1]}

3.2 Population

3.2.1 According to the CIA World Factbook, Ukraine has an estimated population of 43,745,640 (July 2021 estimate)^{[footnote 2]}.

3.2.2 The below table has been compiled by CPIT using estimated population data on 1 January 2021 by Citypopulation.de^{[footnote 3]}:

Region	Population	Region	Population
Cherkasy	1,178,266	Luhansk	2,121,322
Chernihiv	976,701	Lviv	2,497,750
Chernivtsi	896,566	Mykolaiv	1,108,394
Crimea	1,901,578	Odesa	2,368,107
Dnipropetrovsk	3,142,035	Poltava	1,371,529
Donetsk	4,100,280	Rivne	1,148,456
Ivano-Frankivsk	1,361,109	Sumy	1,053,452
Kharkiv	2,633,834	Turnopil	1,030,562
Kherson	1,016,707	Vinnytsia	1,529,123
Khmelnytskyi	1,243,787	Volyn	1,027,397
Kirovohrad	920,128	Zakarpattia	1,250,129
Kyiv	1,788,530	Zaporizhia	1,666,515
Kyiv City	2,962,180	Zhytomyr	1,195,495

This section was updated on 1 April 2022

4. Limits on reporting, propaganda and misinformation

4.1.1 Throughout the invasion of Ukraine there have been a number of misleading claims that have gone viral^{[footnote 4] [footnote 5]}. At 17.59 on 2 March 2022, the BBC stated the following in a post on its live coverage of the Ukraine invasion entitled ‘Why it’s so difficult to count victims in war’:

‘One challenge in this conflict has been to independently confirm an accurate number of victims.

‘Russia and Ukraine both say they have killed thousands of opposing troops. Now Moscow says nearly 500 of its soldiers have been killed, while Ukraine has not yet given an updated figure for military casualties but says at least 2,000 civilians have died.

‘…In a war, countries use information as part of their strategy. It helps galvanise support for a cause or, in the case of losses, opposition to it. So there can be a lot of disinformation around.

‘Ukraine, which has enjoyed widespread support from countries around the world, is keen to show the scale of the destruction and human suffering caused by Russia’s unprovoked aggression.

‘For Russia, news of mass casualties among Russian troops, and the Ukrainian population, could potentially spread the anti-war sentiment even further and turn into an existential threat to President Vladimir Putin’s rule.

‘The UN and human rights groups are often the go-to sources for accurate estimates. But they too have been struggling.

‘Many of their teams have had to relocate and the security situation means that in many cases they are unable to visit places attacked to investigate them.

‘Numbers are released only after workers corroborate information from multiple sources, including survivors, witnesses, open source investigation, and reports from authorities or other organisations.

‘That takes time, and that is why UN figures are often below other estimates, including those from governments.

‘On Tuesday, the agency estimated that at least 136 civilians had been killed so far. But the real number, spokeswoman Liz Throssell warned, was “likely to be much higher”.’^{[footnote 6]}

This section was updated on 1 April 2022

5. Background and timeline to conflict

5.1 Background

5.1.1 The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) (which describes itself as ‘independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank whose members include ‘government officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders’^{[footnote 7]}) published a background of the Ukraine invasion on their website.

5.2 Timeline leading to conflict

5.2.1 Below is a timeline compiled using various sources highlighting important events which took place in the lead up to the conflict in Ukraine:

January 2021: President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, appeals to Joe Biden, now U.S president, to let Ukraine join NATO^{[footnote 8]}.

April 2021: Russia masses troops near Ukraine’s borders in what it claims are training exercises^{[footnote 9]}.

Autumn 2021: Russia begins massing troops near Ukraine border once again^{[footnote 10]}.

7 December 2021: President Joe Biden warns President Vladimir Putin of sanctions and aid for Ukraine military if Russia were to invade Ukraine^{[footnote 11]}.

17 December 2021: Russia issue a list of demands it says must be met to lower tensions in Europe^{[footnote 12]}.

14 January 2022: Ukrainian government websites are hit by a suspected Russian cyber-attack^{[footnote 13]}.

17 January 2022: Russian forces arrive in Belarus for join military drills^{[footnote 14]}.

24 January 2022: NATO puts forces on standby and reinforces eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets^{[footnote 15]}.

26 January 2022: The United States presents a written response to Russia’s security demands, repeating its commitment to upholding NATO’s ‘open-door’ policy while offering ‘pragmatic’ discussions of Moscow’s concerns^{[footnote 16]}.

28 January 2022: President Vladimir Putin says Russia’s main security demands have not been addressed^{[footnote 17]}.

2 February 2022: The United States says it will send 3,000 extra troops to eastern Europe to help shield NATO allies in eastern Europe from any spill over from the crisis^{[footnote 18]}.

15 February 2022: Russia states that some of its troops are returning to base after exercises near Ukraine. Russia’s parliament asks Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent^{[footnote 19]}.

18 February 2022: According to the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Russia had amassed up to 190,000 troops in and near Ukraine^{[footnote 20]}.

20 February 2022: Russia’s strategic nuclear forces held exercises overseen by President Vladimir Putin. The U.S. accused Russian troops massed near Ukraine’s border of advancing and being ‘posed to strike’^{[footnote 21]}.

21 February 2022: In a televised address, Putin says Ukraine is an integral part of Russian history, has never had a history of genuine statehood, is managed by foreign powers and is a puppet regime. He also signs agreement to recognise the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent and order Russian troops there^{[footnote 22]}.

22 February 2022: Western nations enact sanctions on Russian parliament members, banks and other assets. Germany halts final certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline^{[footnote 23]}. Putin, in a television address, demands Ukraine demilitarise and says the Minsk peace agreement over breakaway republics no longer exists, blaming Kyiv for killing the deal^{[footnote 24]}.

23 February 2022: Separatists in Ukraine asked Moscow to help repel ‘aggression’, with explosions rocking the breakaway eastern city of Donetsk^{[footnote 25]}.

24 February 2022: Russian President Putin authorizes “special military operations” in eastern Ukraine and asks Ukrainian forces to lay down their arms in a televised address. Russian forces begin missile and artillery attacks on Ukrainian forces and air bases, striking areas in major cities^{[footnote 26]}.

This section was updated on 1 April 2022

6. Actors

6.1 Ukraine and Russia militaries

6.1.1 On 15 February 2022 the Independent published an article entitled ‘How do Russia and Ukraine’s militaries compare?’ which included the following image comparing Ukraine and Russia’s military^{[footnote 27]}:

The Russia-Ukraine military imbalance

Comparison of selected military statistics for Russia and Ukraine in 2022.

Ground Forces	Russia	Ukraine
Active personnel	850,000	200,000
Tanks	12,420	2,596
Armoured vehicles	30,122	12,303

Air Forces	Russia	Ukraine
Total aircraft	4,173	318
Fighter aircraft	772	69
Attack helicopters	544	34

Naval Forces	Russia	Ukraine
Naval fleet	605	38
Frigates	11	1
Destroyers	15	0

6.1.2 See also:

• The International Institute for Strategic Studies – ‘If New Looks could kill: Russia’s military capability in 2022’,15 February 2022

• Reuters, ‘Factbox: How Ukraine’s armed forces shape up against Russia’s’, 24 February 2022

• The Telegraph – ‘How Russia’s vast military compares with Ukraine’s compact army and NATO’s forces’, 26 February 2022

• Armedforces.eu – ‘Ukraine vs Russia - Comparison military strength’, no date

• Globalfirepower.com, ‘Comparison of Ukraine and Russia Military Strengths (2022)’, no date

This section was updated on 15 June 2022

7. Security incidents and developments

7.1 February and March 2022

7.1.1 On 3 March 2022 the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project’s (ACLED) (‘a disaggregated data collection, analysis, and crisis mapping project’^{[footnote 28]}) published a regional overview of events that took place between 19 and 25 February 2022 in Europe. The overview, citing various sources, stated:

‘Months of Russian military buildup near the border with Ukraine, and the recent escalation of the war in the Donbas region, culminated in a full-scale invasion on 24 February [2022]. Hours before the attack, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” in Ukraine, accusing NATO of closing in on Russia’s borders and Ukraine of “militarization and nazification”. Russian troops breached the Ukrainian border from the north, east, and south, and launched missiles targeting major Ukrainian cities, such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Odesa, as well as airports in Lutsk, and Ivano-Frankivsk. Despite Russian claims that armed attacks have only been directed against military facilities, Russian forces also targeted civilian infrastructure, bombing hospitals, residential areas, and kindergartens in several cities. During the first week of the invasion 19 – 25 February 2022 there were 134 battles and 540 shelling/missile incidents reported across the country. In response to the invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared martial law.’^{[footnote 29]}

7.1.2 At 19:49 on 24 February 2022 the UK’s Ministry of Defence (UKMOD) published the below map on Twitter showing Russian attacks and troop locations^{[footnote 30]}:

7.1.3 On 6 March 2022 the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) published a fact sheet which stated:

‘Casualties from explosive weapon use (ground and air-launched) were recorded in areas affected by active hostilities, and are reportedly high in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr.

‘Civilian infrastructure and civilian housing across the country continue to be attacked by heavy missiles and airstrikes in breach of the International Humanitarian Law. The humanitarian situation in the range of the settlements located along the contact line dramatically deteriorated - regional authorities report outages of electricity, water supply, and heating… On 4 March, the Russian military troops shelled and later occupied Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in Energodar city, which resulted in the ignition of the premises nearby. This event puts at risk the lives and health of millions of people, living in Ukraine and neighboring countries.’^{[footnote 31]}

7.1.4 On 10 March 2022 ACLED published an overview, citing various sources, of events in Europe between 26 February and 4 March 2022 which stated:

‘In Ukraine, the second week of the full-scale Russian invasion was marked by increased targeting of civilians by the Russian military, which included deliberate shelling of hospitals, kindergartens, and residential buildings. In addition, Russian forces shelled humanitarian corridors set up for residents of Volnovakha and Mariupol in the Donetsk region, killing civilians. According to estimates from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), 532 civilians were killed and 675 were wounded across Ukraine as of 4 March. However, the actual numbers could be much higher…. Russian forces also seized Europe’s largest nuclear power station in Zaporizhia, with fighting causing a fire to break out on the site, raising fears of a possible nuclear disaster.

‘Overall, the invasion contributed to the 166% increase in violence in Ukraine over the past month relative to the past year flagged by ACLED’s Conflict Change Map, which first warned of increased violence to come in the country last month. Previously peaceful regions — such as Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, and Kyiv — experienced greater than 1000% increases in violence last week relative to the past month (over 2000% percent in Kyiv), as flagged by ACLED’s Subnational Surge Tracker.’^{[footnote 32]}

7.1.5 The UKMOD posted the following image on Twitter showing Russian attacks and troop locations as of 14:40 on 4 March 2022:

^{[footnote 33]}

7.1.6 The below graph was produced by CPIT using information obtained from ACLED’s data export tool and shows the number of security events across Ukraine between 24 February and 4 March 2022^{[footnote 34]}. Security events include battles, explosions/remote violence, protests, riots, violence against civilians and strategic developments. ALCED provided the following definitions for each of the different security events:

‘Battles are violent clashes between at least two armed groups. Battle types are distinguished by whether control of a location is unchanged as a consequence of the event; whether a non-state group has assumed control of a location, or whether a government has resumed control of that location.

‘Explosions/Remote violence refers to events where an explosion, bomb or other explosive device was used to engage in conflict. They include one-sided violent events in which the tool for engaging in conflict creates asymmetry by taking away the ability of the target to engage or defend themselves and their location.

‘Strategic developments include incidences of looting, peace-talks, high profile arrests, non-violent transfers of territory, recruitment into non-state groups etc.

‘Protests are non-violent demonstrations, involving typically unorganized action by members of society

‘Riots are a violent demonstration, often involving a spontaneous action by unorganized, unaffiliated members of society.

‘Violence against civilians involves violent attacks on unarmed civilians.’^{[footnote 35]}

7.1.7 For definitions of the different sub-events associated which each security events see the document entitled ‘Event Definitions’.

Security events across Ukraine 24-2-22 to 4-3-22

Black sea	1
Cherkasy	2
Chernihiv	35
Chernivtsi	0
Crimea	1
Dnipropetrovsk	1
Donetsk	142
Ivano-Frankivsk	1
Kharkiv	69
Kherson	37
Khmelnytskyi	1
Kirovohrad	1
Kyiv	111
Kyiv City	27
Luhansk	70
Lviv	4
Mykolaiv	23
Odesa	19
Poltava	3
Rivne	0
Sumy	46
Ternopil	0
Vinnytsia	4
Volyn	2
Zakarpattia	0
Zaporizhia	59
Zhytomyr	17

7.1.8 On 10 March 2022 the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) published a fact sheet which stated:

‘From 24 February to 9 March, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 1,506 civilian casualties in the country: 549 killed and 957 injured, as a result of the Russian military offensive in eastern, northern, and southern regions of Ukraine - 40% of them in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The confirmed numbers of civilian deaths (549) in the first 12 days is already higher than the total number of deaths in the past six years of conflict (355). OHCHR estimates that the real figures are considerably higher due to delays in receiving information from conflict-affected locations.

‘Civilian infrastructure and civilian housing across the country continue to be attacked by heavy missiles and airstrikes in breach of International Humanitarian Law. According to the Government of Ukraine, relentless shelling across the country has damaged or destroyed more than 210 schools, 34 hospitals, and more than 1,500 residential buildings.

‘Kyiv region (Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel, Ivankiv), Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, Kramatorsk, continue to experience heavy shelling, with reported power and water cuts. The safe passage of civilians out of hardest-hit areas and safe delivery of humanitarian supplies into those areas was not agreed upon and residents are now facing critical risks due to lack of access to life-saving humanitarian relief, including water, food, and medical supplies.

‘The volatile security in eastern, southern and central areas continue to pose risks to civilians and humanitarian actors alike.’^{[footnote 36]}

7.1.9 On 17 March 2022 ACLED published an overview, citing various sources, of events in Europe between 5 and 11 March 2022 which stated:

‘Russian forces continued their invasion of Ukraine last week. Three weeks into the invasion, the Ukrainian government continued to hold all the major cities, except Kherson and the regions occupied since 2014, including Donetsk, Luhansk, and the Crimean peninsula. Heavy fighting ensued in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv, which were partially encircled by Russian troops. After surrounding Kherson, the city of Melitopol in the Zaporizhia region, and Mariupol in the Donetsk region, Russia effectively cut off Ukraine from the Azov Sea and linked the Russian-controlled territories in Donbas and Crimea by land.

‘Russian forces continued targeting civilians last week, deliberately shelling hospitals, kindergartens, and residential buildings, as well as firing at civilian evacuation routes from Mariupol, Volnovakha, and other cities. The Russian military continued heavy shelling of Mariupol throughout last week, amid reports of mass fatalities. Civilians trapped in the besieged city faced a lack of access to food, electricity, water, and heat. These events contributed to the 234% increase in violence in Ukraine last month relative to the past year …’^{[footnote 37]}

7.1.10 The UKMOD published the following image on Twitter showing Russian attacks and troop locations as at 13:33 on 11 March 2022:

^{[footnote 38]}

7.1.11 On 18 March 2022 ACLED published an analysis of the conflict in Ukraine which contained the following map showing incidents of violence that took place between 5 and 11 March 2022:

^{[footnote 39]}

7.1.12 The below graph^{[footnote 40]} was produced by CPIT using information obtained from ACLED’s data export tool and shows the number of security events across Ukraine between 5 and 11 March 2022:

Security events across Ukraine 5-3-22 to 11-3-22

Black sea	1
Cherkasy	1
Chernihiv	29
Chernivtsi	0
Crimea	1
Dnipropetrovsk	4
Donetsk	133
Ivano-Frankivsk	1
Kharkiv	53
Kherson	39
Khmelnytskyi	2
Kirovohrad	0
Kyiv	87
Kyiv City	15
Luhansk	62
Lviv	0
Mykolaiv	20
Odesa	5
Poltava	3
Rivne	2
Sumy	43
Ternopil	0
Vinnytsia	2
Volyn	2
Zakarpattia	0
Zaporizhia	44
Zhytomyr	16

7.1.13 On 16 March 2022 the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) published a fact sheet which stated:

‘From 24 February to 16 March, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 2,032 civilian casualties in the country: (780 killed and 1,252 injured) as a result of the military offensive… OHCHR’s figures do not yet include civilian casualties in the most heavily affected areas (Mariupol, Volnovakha, Izium) due to limited humanitarian access for corroboration. According to Mariupol authorities, the number of civilian casualties in the city alone reached 20,000 people.

‘Main areas of conflict continue to be in the northeast, southeast, and eastern parts of the country. Clashes and bombardments continue in Kyiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Mariupol, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions.

‘The number of airstrikes affecting civilians and civilian infrastructure has significantly increased, endangering the lives of civilians as well as humanitarian personnel operating in conflict areas. As a result of attacks on water infrastructure in Donetsk region, 2.2 million people received water by schedule, while 650,000 people are cut off water supply.

‘… Since the beginning of the military offensive, 43 incidents of attacks on health care have been documented via the WHO’s Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA) – including health care facilities damaged or destroyed and ambulances hit, affecting access to and availability of health services.’^{[footnote 41]}

7.1.14 On 24 March 2022 ACLED published an overview, citing various sources, of events in Europe between 12 and 18 March 2022 which stated:

‘The Russian invasion of Ukraine entered its fourth week last week. Fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces continued in the northern, eastern, and southern regions of Ukraine. Since the start of the invasion on 24 February, Russian forces have failed to capture any regional centers other than Kherson, though have continued advances against Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Mykolaiv. The city of Mariupol in the Donetsk region remains under Russian siege, with Russian troops engaging in the continuous bombarding of civilian infrastructure and blocking civilian access to food, water, electricity, and heat. Local authorities estimate that around 2,500 people have died in Mariupol during the siege. The Russian military also continued to fire on civilian evacuation routes last week, predominantly in the Kyiv region. Additionally, Russian troops systematically abducted civilians in the occupied areas last week, including mayors, members of local councils, activists, and at least one journalist. After being released, multiple abductees reported being tortured or otherwise pressured into cooperating with Russian troops and being filmed repeating pro-Russian narratives. The ongoing invasion drove the 259% increase in violence in Ukraine over the past month relative to the past year…’^{[footnote 42]}

7.1.15 The UKMOD published the following image on Twitter showing Russian attacks and troop locations as at 12:58 on 18 March 2022:

^{[footnote 43]}

7.1.16 On 24 March 2022 ACLED published an analysis of the conflict in Ukraine which contained the following map showing incidents of violence that took place between 12 and 18 March 2022^{[footnote 44]}:

7.1.17 The below graph was produced by CPIT using information obtained from ACLED’s data export tool and shows the number of security events across Ukraine between 12 and 18 March 2022^{[footnote 45]}:

Security events across Ukraine 12-3-22 to 18-3-22

Black sea	0
Cherkasy	3
Chernihiv	27
Chernivtsi	0
Crimea	1
Dnipropetrovsk	13
Donetsk	116
Ivano-Frankivsk	1
Kharkiv	48
Kherson	28
Khmelnytskyi	0
Kirovohrad	2
Kyiv	73
Kyiv City	13
Luhansk	70
Lviv	3
Mykolaiv	17
Odesa	14
Poltava	0
Rivne	3
Sumy	20
Ternopil	0
Vinnytsia	2
Volyn	0
Zakarpattia	0
Zaporizhia	44
Zhytomyr	11

7.1.18 On 27 March 2022 UNHCR published a fact sheet which stated:

‘Main areas of conflict continue to be in the northeast, southeast, and eastern parts of the country, particularly Kyiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions. Private houses, multistory building, and medical facilities had been destroyed on a massive scale… The intensity of the fighting, and notably the indiscriminate airstrikes hitting civilians and private and communal infrastructure, continues to trigger fear and large-scale displacement inside Ukraine and to neighboring countries. On 24 March, an office of Nova Poshta was attacked by shelling while distributing humanitarian aid to residents of Kharkiv, resulting in six civilians dead and 15 wounded (Kharkiv Regional Military Administration).

‘… Despite the successful evacuation from Sumy, attempts to evacuate civilians in a more predictable and systematical manner from the most affected areas continue to be hindered by ongoing hostilities. On 21 March, several evacuation buses were shelled in different areas in Zaporizhya region when they were leaving Mariupol – five children were reportedly injured. On 23 March, Ukrainian authorities reported that a convoy of 11 buses driving towards Mariupol to evacuate civilians was diverted by Russian armed forces.’^{[footnote 46]}

7.1.19 On 31 March 2022 ACLED published an overview, citing various sources, of events in Europe between 19 and 25 March 2022 which stated:

‘In Ukraine, 24 March marks one month since Russia launched its large-scale invasion. Fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces continued in the northern, eastern, and southern regions of Ukraine throughout last week. Russian forces continued to shell civilian infrastructure in various parts of the country. The city of Mariupol in the Donetsk region remains under siege while Russian forces continue their bombardment. Despite several successful evacuations of civilians, around 160,000 people remain in the city with no access to electricity, heating, phone coverage, food, and water. Evidence of mass graves in Mariupol continues to grow, while reports also suggest that constant shelling has prevented people from burying the dead. Additionally, last week, Ukrainian authorities accused Russia of forcibly deporting thousands of civilians from Mariupol and other Ukrainian cities to Russia.

‘While Russian troops have been on the offensive in Ukraine for the better part of the past month, Ukrainian forces carried out several successful counterattacks last week, forcing the occupying troops to retreat. In the Kyiv region, reports suggest that Ukrainian troops managed to push Russian forces that have been positioned outside the capital city for weeks as much as 15 miles further back. The ongoing invasion has driven the 189% increase in violence in Ukraine over the past month…’^{[footnote 47]}

7.1.20 On 1 April 2022 ACLED published an analysis of the conflict in Ukraine which contained the following map showing incidents of violence that took place between 19 and 25 March 2022^{[footnote 48]}:

7.1.21 The UKMOD published the following on Twitter image showing Russian attacks and troop locations as at 12:56 on 25 March 2022:

^{[footnote 49]}

7.1.22 The below graph was produced by CPIT using information obtained from ACLED’s data export tool and shows the number of security events across Ukraine between 19 and 25 March 2022^{[footnote 50]}:

Security events across Ukraine 19-3-22 to 25-3-22

Black sea	0
Cherkasy	0
Chernihiv	15
Chernivtsi	0
Crimea	0
Dnipropetrovsk	11
Donetsk	101
Ivano-Frankivsk	1
Kharkiv	41
Kherson	23
Khmelnytskyi	1
Kirovohrad	0
Kyiv	59
Kyiv City	13
Luhansk	68
Lviv	1
Mykolaiv	19
Odesa	11
Poltava	0
Rivne	2
Sumy	14
Ternopil	0
Vinnytsia	3
Volyn	1
Zakarpattia	0
Zaporizhia	27
Zhytomyr	12

7.2 April to June 2022

7.2.1 On 21 April 2022 UNHCR published a fact sheet which stated:

‘As of today, more than 5 million refugees have fled Ukraine, making this the fastest growing refugee crisis since World War II. A further 7.7 million people have been displaced internally within Ukraine. Some 13 million people are estimated to be stranded in affected areas or unable to leave due to heightened security risks, destruction of bridges and roads, as well as lack of resources or information on where to find safety and accommodation. Many people who are trapped are unable to meet their basic needs including food, water and medicines.

‘… UNICEF and WASH partners reported that 1.4 million people are currently without running water across eastern Ukraine and that an additional 4.6 million people across Ukraine are at risk of losing access to piped water. Missile attacks were reported around Kherson, Kyiv, Mariupol and Mykolaiv, as well as in the western city of Lviv on 18 April. Mariupol is expected to be completely cut off and the situation in Kherson remains dire.^{[footnote 51]}

7.2.2 On 22 April 2022 OHCHR updated their figures on the reported number of civilian casualties in Ukraine:

‘From 4 a.m. on 24 February 2022, when the Russian Federation’s armed attack against Ukraine started, to 24:00 midnight on 21 April 2022 (local time), the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 5,381 civilian casualties in the country: 2,435 killed and 2,946 injured.

‘… Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes.’ ^{[footnote 52]}

7.2.3 On 28 April ACLED published an overview, citing various sources, of events in Europe between 16 – 22 April which stated:

‘Heavy fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces continued in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine over the past two weeks. During this period, over two-thirds of all political violence in the country was recorded in the eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv.

‘…Russian forces also intensified attempts to advance in the Luhansk region yet failed to capture new territories. In the meantime, following clashes with Russian troops, Ukrainian forces managed to regain control over a dozen settlements in the Kharkiv region. Additionally, Ukrainian forces carried out several successful attacks on Zmiinyi Island, off the southern coast of the country, part of the region of Odesa, killing dozens of Russian soldiers. These trends contribute to the 140% increase in violence in the Odesa region last week relative to the past month flagged by ACLED’s Subnational Surge Tracker, which first warned of increased violence to come in the Odesa region in the past month.

Russian missile attacks continued across Ukraine over the past two weeks, often targeting civilian infrastructure and wounding civilians.^{[footnote 53]}

7.2.4 On 28 April ACLED published an analysis of the conflict in Ukraine which contained the following map showing incidents of violence that took place between 16 and 22 April 2022.^{[footnote 54]}

7.2.5 At 10:13 on 24 April 2022 the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence (UKMOD) published the below map on Twitter showing Russian attacks and troop locations:

^{[footnote 55]}

7.2.6 The below graph was produced by CPIT using information obtained from ACLED’s data export tool and shows the number of security events across Ukraine between 25 March 2022 and 24 April 2022^{[footnote 56]}:

Security events across Ukraine 25-3-22 to 24-4-22

Black sea	1
Cherkasy	0
Chernihiv	72
Chernivtsi	0
Crimea	3
Dnipropetrovsk	57
Donetsk	774
Ivano-Frankivsk	0
Kharkiv	227
Kherson	134
Khmelnytskyi	4
Kirovohrad	6
Kyiv	117
Kyiv City	13
Luhansk	362
Lviv	8
Mykolaiv	44
Odesa	21
Poltava	9
Rivne	3
Sumy	28
Ternopil	2
Vinnytsia	3
Volyn	4
Zakarpattia	0
Zaporizhia	198
Zhytomyr	24

7.2.7 On 3 June UNHCR published a fact sheet which stated:

‘Since the onset of the Russian invasion, one-third of Ukrainians have been forced from their homes. This is the largest human displacement crisis in the world today. Over 7.1 million people remain displaced by the war within Ukraine and 15.7 million people are estimated to urgently require humanitarian assistance and protection.

‘Many people who are trapped are unable to meet their basic needs including food, water and medicines. The delivery of life-saving aid remains challenging, with a lack of safe humanitarian access. We continue striving to reach hard-hit areas with life-saving assistance as part of inter-agency humanitarian convoys. UNHCR continues to call for the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure, respect for international humanitarian law, and for neighbouring countries to continue keeping their borders open to those fleeing.

As of 27 May, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 8,766 civilian casualties in the country: 4,031 killed – including 261 children – and 4,735 injured. OHCHR notes that the actual figures are likely considerably higher.

‘Eastern Ukraine remains the centre of current fighting, though shelling and airstrikes persist in other regions. Intense hostilities are ongoing in Sievierodonetsk in Luhansk oblast, including heavy fighting taking place within the city’s streets and reports of large-scale destruction to infrastructure and housing, cutting off access to electricity, gas and water supplies. On 31 May, a chemical plant was bombed in the city, and remaining residents were warned to stay indoors.’^{[footnote 57]}

7.2.8 On 3 June OCHR updated their figures on the reported number of civilian casualties in Ukraine:

‘From 4 a.m. on 24 February 2022, when the Russian Federation’s armed attack against Ukraine started, to 24:00 midnight on 2 June 2022 (local time), the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 9,197 civilian casualties in the country: 4,183 killed and 5,014 injured.

Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes.

OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration. This concerns, for example, Mariupol (Donetsk region), Izium (Kharkiv region), and Popasna (Luhansk region), where there are allegations of numerous civilian casualties.’^{[footnote 58]}

7.2.9 On 1 June ACLED published an overview, citing various sources, of events in Europe between 21 - 27 May which stated:

‘In Ukraine, fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to center on the eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv last week. Half of all political violence recorded last week occurred in the Donetsk region, where Russian and Russian-led forces claimed advancements in the Lyman area.

‘…Dozens of civilians were reportedly killed by Russian shelling and airstrikes in the eastern and southern regions of the country last week.‘^{[footnote 59]}

7.2.10 On 10 June ACLED published an analysis of the conflict in Ukraine which contained the following map showing incidents of violence that took place between 28 May and 3 June 2022’.^{[footnote 60]}

7.2.11 At 13:20 on 24 May 2022 UKMOD published the below map on Twitter showing Russian attacks and troop locations:

^{[footnote 61]}

7.2.12 At 11:27 on 1 June 2022 the UKMOD published the below map on Twitter showing Russian attacks and troop locations:

^{[footnote 62]}

7.2.13 The below graph was produced by CPIT using information obtained from ACLED’s data export tool and shows the number of security events across Ukraine between 25 April 2022 and 3 June 2022^{[footnote 63]}:

Security events across Ukraine 25-4-22 to 3-6-22

Black sea	0
Cherkasy	2
Chernihiv	37
Chernivtsi	2
Crimea	4
Dnipropetrovsk	106
Donetsk	1389
Ivano-Frankivsk	2
Kharkiv	474
Kherson	149
Khmelnytskyi	3
Kirovohrad	4
Kyiv	18
Kyiv City	5
Luhansk	469
Lviv	12
Mykolaiv	104
Odesa	46
Poltava	7
Rivne	2
Sumy	110
Ternopil	0
Vinnytsia	4
Volyn	0
Zakarpattia	1
Zaporizhia	206
Zhytomyr	6

This section was updated on 15 June 2022

8. Impact on civilians

8.1 Casualties

8.1.1 According to Ukraine’s Health Ministry, on 24 February 2022, the first day of the conflict, 57 people were killed and 169 were wounded^{[footnote 64]}.

8.1.2 On 25 February 2022 the United Nations Human Rights Office spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani said that it had reports of at least 127 civilian casualties in Ukraine during the first day of the conflict, of which 25 were killed and 102 were injured. She also stated that these figures were likely to be a significant under-estimate of the true number of civilian casualties^{[footnote 65]}.

8.1.3 On 27 February 2022 the BBC published an article entitled ‘Ukraine conflict: The civilian lives lost to Russia’s war’ which stated ‘The number of civilians killed during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is rising by the day. By Sunday, Ukraine’s human rights commissioner put the number of civilian victims alone at 210, including several children (see BBC article for some specific examples cited – include link)

8.1.4 On 17 March 2022 OCHR published a Ukraine Humanitarian Situation Impact report, in which they stated:

‘Over three weeks of active hostilities, civilian casualties have risen to 2,032 including 780 killed, according to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).

‘…millions of people are now on the move, forced to shelter in crowded spaces with limited sanitation facilities and access to health services, the risk of infection disease outbreaks continues to rise. The World Health Organization (WHO) says that nearly half of all attacks on health systems across the globe so far this year – 43 out of 89 – have occurred in Ukraine.’^{[footnote 66]}

8.1.4 On 1 April 2022 the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) published a civilian casualty update covering the first month of the invasion which stated:

‘From 4 a.m. on 24 February 2022, when the Russian Federation’s armed attack against Ukraine started, to 24:00 midnight on 31 March 2022 (local time), the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 3,257 civilian casualties in the country: 1,276 killed and 1,981 injured. This included:

‘Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes’^{[footnote 67]}

8.1.5 On 22 April 2022 OHCHR published a statement from High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet:

‘The Russian invasion nearly two months ago has plunged Ukraine into a human rights and humanitarian crisis that has devastated the lives of civilians throughout the country and beyond, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said on Friday, as she called for all parties to respect international human rights law and international humanitarian law, in particular the rules governing the conduct of hostilities.

“Over these eight weeks, international humanitarian law has not merely been ignored but seemingly tossed aside,” Bachelet said.

‘Russian armed forces have indiscriminately shelled and bombed populated areas, killing civilians and wrecking hospitals, schools and other civilian infrastructure, actions that may amount to war crimes.

‘The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) has also documented what appears to be the use of weapons with indiscriminate effects, causing civilian casualties and damage to civilian objects, by Ukrainian armed forces in the east of the country.

‘Since 24 February to midnight on 20 April, HRMMU has documented and verified 5,264 civilian casualties – 2,345 killed and 2,919 injured. Of these, 92.3 per cent (2,266 killed and 2,593 injured) were recorded in Government-controlled territory. Some 7.7 per cent of casualties (79 killed and 326 injured) were recorded in Donetsk and Luhansk regions controlled by Russian armed forces and affiliated armed groups.’^{[footnote 68]}

8.1.6 On 26 May 2022 in a speech delivered to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Neil Bush the head of the UK’s Delegation noted:

‘The people of Ukraine have now endured three months of suffering at the hands of the Russian government and the Russian military, following the latest invasion. As of Monday, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 8,462 civilian casualties, of which nearly 4,000 are fatalities. The true figure is likely to be significantly higher, and rises every day. We may not know the true human cost of this war for years to come.

‘…As verified by OHCHR, most of the civilian causalities recorded were caused by explosive weapons with a wide area impact, including shelling from heavy artillery, rocket systems, missiles and air strikes. As Russian military operations faltered in the first weeks of the invasion, we saw the indiscriminate and widespread use of weapons in civilian areas. In the Chernihiv region north of Kyiv, an estimated 3,500 buildings were destroyed or damaged during Russia’s abandoned advance towards Kyiv. 80% of these were residential buildings. This illustrates Russia’s preparedness to use artillery and wide area weapons in civilian areas, with no regard for the men, women and children who live there.^{[footnote 69]}

8.1.5 On 3 June, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) published a quote from the ICRS’s director General Robert Mardini on the impact of 100 days of international armed conflict in Ukraine:

‘”It would be hard to exaggerate the toll that the international armed conflict in Ukraine has had on civilians over the last 100 days. The scale of destruction in cities defies comprehension. Homes, schools and hospitals have been destroyed and civilians have suffered the horrors of conflict, with lives lost and families torn apart.

…’ It’s also important to remember that some regions have suffered not 100 days of armed conflict, but eight years of it, and many people have endured multiple tragedies. Many residents have been forced to flee their homes more than once, rebuilding their lives from scratch each time.’ ^{[footnote 70]}

8.1.6 The below graph was produced by CPIT using information obtained from ACLED’s data export tool and shows the number of fatalities across Ukraine of both combatants and civilians between 24 February 2022 and 3 June 2022 (the latest data set available at the time of writing). The following should be noted regarding reliability of fatality numbers: ‘ACLED advises caution in using fatality numbers from any conflict data source. Fatality information is the most biased, and least accurate, part of any conflict report and extreme caution should be employed when using any fatality number from any source’6. For more information regarding methodology used by ACLED as well as a specific Ukraine conflict guide see the Resource Library page of the ACLED website.

Combatant and civilian fatalities across Ukraine 24-2-22 to 3-6-22

Black sea	37
Cherkasy	1
Chernihiv	604
Chernivtsi	0
Crimea	0
Dnipropetrovsk	104
Donetsk	2092
Ivano-Frankivsk	0
Kharkiv	1423
Kherson	637
Khmelnytskyi	2
Kirovohrad	10
Kyiv	988
Kyiv City	86
Luhansk	1930
Lviv	42
Mykolaiv	431
Odesa	67
Poltava	11
Rivne	9
Sumy	230
Ternopil	0
Vinnytsia	14
Volyn	4
Zakarpattia	0
Zaporizhia	643
Zhytomyr	57

8.1.6 The below graph was produced by CPIT using information obtained from ACLED’s data export tool and shows the number of civilian fatalities across Ukraine between 24 February 2022 and 3 June 2022. (Note: these figures are likely to be much higher in reality).

Civilian fatalities across Ukraine 24-2-22 to 3-6-22

Black sea	0
Cherkasy	0
Chernihiv	270
Chernivtsi	0
Crimea	0
Dnipropetrovsk	16
Donetsk	930
Ivano-Frankivsk	0
Kharkiv	478
Kherson	92
Khmelnytskyi	0
Kirovohrad	3
Kyiv	659
Kyiv City	29
Luhansk	269
Lviv	7
Mykolaiv	111
Odesa	13
Poltava	1
Rivne	9
Sumy	59
Ternopil	0
Vinnytsia	5
Volyn	4
Zakarpattia	0
Zaporizhia	58
Zhytomyr	27

8.1.7 On 2 June 2022 the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) published an updated civilian casualty figure for the period covering 24 February 2022 to 2 June 2022.

‘From 4 a.m. on 24 February 2022, when the Russian Federation’s armed attack against Ukraine started, to 24:00 midnight on 2 June 2022 (local time), the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 9,197 civilian casualties in the country: 4,183 killed and 5,014 injured. This included:

• a total of 4,183 killed (1,584 men, 1,049 women, 99 girls, and 102 boys, as well as 67 children and 1,282 adults whose sex is yet unknown)

• a total of 5,014 injured (999 men, 695 women, 116 girls, and 141 boys, as well as 170 children and 2,893 adults whose sex is yet unknown)

  • In Donetsk and Luhansk regions: 5,264 casualties (2,400 killed and 2,864 injured)

    • On Government-controlled territory: 4,514 casualties (2,253 killed and 2,261 injured)

    • On territory controlled by Russian affiliated armed groups: 750 casualties (147 killed and 603 injured)

  • In other regions of Ukraine (the city of Kyiv, and Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Rivne, Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr regions), which were under Government control when casualties occurred: 3,933 casualties (1,783 killed and 2,150 injured)

‘Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes.’^{[footnote 71]}

8.1.8 The below table has been compiled by CPIT using information provided by OHCHR^{[footnote 72] [footnote 73] [footnote 74] [footnote 75] [footnote 76] [footnote 77] [footnote 78]} and shows the number of civilian casualties across Ukraine during the first four weeks of the Russian invasion, and during the months April and May 2022:

Date	Civilian fatalities	Civilian injuries	Casualty total
24 Feb - 7 March 2022	474	861	1,335
14 March 2022	691	1,143	1,834
21 March 2022	953	1,557	2,510
28 March 2022	1,179	1,860	3,039
31 March 2022	1,232	1,935	3,167
30 April 2022	2,899	3,235	6,134
31 May 2022	4,113	4,916	9,029

8.1.9 For incidents that have resulted in potential civilian impact or harm since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine see the interactive map produced by and published by Bellingcat.

8.2 Weaponry and tactics used

8.2.1 On 27 February 2022 Bellingcat (which describes itself as ‘an independent international collective of researchers, investigators and citizen journalists using open source and social media investigation to probe a variety of subjects’^{[footnote 79]}) published an article entitled ‘Invasion of Ukraine: Tracking use of Cluster Munitions in Civilian Areas’ which stated:

‘As the war between invading Russian and Ukrainian forces grinds on, the civilian casualty count is rising.

‘In the early days of the conflict, the use of cluster munitions even appear to have impacted sites around schools and hospitals.

‘Cluster munitions are a type of weapon that deploy a large number of smaller sub-munitions over a target. These sub-munitions then spread and explode over a larger area, increasing the potential for damage and casualties.

‘Due to the wide harm they can cause, cluster munitions are widely criticised as weapons that pose “an immediate threat to civilians during conflict” and for the “long-lasting” problems they can cause if sub-munitions do not explode upon first impact.

‘More than 100 countries have banned their use and signed up to the Convention on Cluster Munitions. However, neither Russia nor Ukraine (which also possesses cluster munitions) has put their name to this agreement.

‘Russia has continued to use them, most notably in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and later in Syria.

‘Ukraine strongly denied using cluster munitions during the conflict with Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country in 2015, despite a Human Rights Watch (HRW) report that stated they likely had.

‘In recent days, social media images and videos have allowed Bellingcat – along with other conflict monitors and open source researchers – to geolocate the impact sites of several cluster munitions to civilian areas within Ukraine.

‘We have also been able to determine the probable direction from which the missiles came, providing a clue as to who may have fired them.

‘In some instances, the number of casualties appears to have been significant.

‘For example, HRW have investigated and verified use of cluster munitions that landed just outside a Ukrainian hospital, pointing the finger of blame at Russia and calling for Russian forces to “stop using cluster munitions and end unlawful attacks with weapons that indiscriminately kill and maim”.

‘However, images and videos posted online demonstrate even wider use of these weapons in civilian areas.’^{[footnote 80]}

8.2.2 See the full article for information regarding the use of cluster munitions by Russian forces in areas such as Kharkiv and Okhtyrka.

8.2.3 On 1 March 2022 Reuters published an article entitled ‘Ukraine’s Kharkiv struck by cluster bombs, experts say’ which stated:

‘Multiple cluster bombs were fired on Ukraine’s second largest city Kharkiv on Monday, two munitions experts said after reviewing footage posted on social media.

‘Reuters geo-located two separate videos that show thuds and flashes over a wide residential area in the city of 1.4 million in northeast Ukraine. Reuters was unable to obtain the original footage to confirm the time and date of the recordings, which were posted online on Monday.

‘Kharkiv has been the target of some of the worst aerial attacks since Ukraine was invaded by Russian forces on Feb. 24.

‘”Kharkiv appears to have been the target of multiple cluster munition attacks yesterday,” said Sam Dubberley, head of the Digital Investigations Lab at New York-based Human Rights Watch. “We have geo-located one showing what appears to be several civilian victims a short way away.”

‘Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former British Army officer and biological and chemical weapons specialist, agreed that cluster munitions were most likely used in Kharkiv.

‘”This does look very much like cluster bombs, and similar to those I’ve seen going off in Iraq and Syria,” he said in an email to Reuters. “The multiple explosions on impact of each warhead would suggest a cluster munition.”

‘Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States accused Russia on Monday of attacking Ukrainians with cluster bombs and vacuum bombs, weapons that have been condemned by a variety of international organizations.

‘When asked about allegations that Russia was using cluster munitions and vacuum bombs, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “It’s undoubtedly fake news.” Russian operations are focused on military targets, not civilian ones, he said.’^{[footnote 81]}

8.2.4 On 4 March 2022 CNN published an article entitled ‘Russia sends a message to all of Ukraine by hitting these civilian areas in this city’ which stated:

‘Three schools shelled, one of them with a gaping hole on the side of the building. Multiple rockets raining on panicking shoppers outside a supermarket. People walking through a park forced to rush to safety as shells explode around them.

‘These were some of the attacks that residents of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, endured in recent days as Russian forces targeted residential areas, hitting civilian infrastructure such as schools, shops, hospitals, apartment blocks and churches.

‘CNN has geolocated and verified 13 incidents involving civilians over the past three days, as attacks intensified on Kharkiv, a city of about 1.5 million people. following Ukraine’s resistance.

‘Most of the attacks took place in the northeastern part of Kharkiv in the residential area of Saltivka. But other districts in the northwest, southeast and southwest of the city were also affected. The city’s Freedom Square, the center of public life in Kharkiv, was hit with was believed to be a cruise missile, an adviser to Ukraine’s interior minister said.

‘In 24 hours, 34 civilians were killed and 285 injured – including 10 children – in the Kharkiv region, the Ukrainian State Emergency Service said on Thursday morning.

‘As the Kharkiv offensive ramped up, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague announced on Wednesday that he had launched an investigation into alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Ukraine.

‘Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky referred to Russia’s relentless bombardment of Kharkiv, including the deliberate targeting of residential areas with “jet artillery,” as a “war crime” in a late-night address on Monday.

‘CNN has analyzed and verified digital evidence, including videos and photos, of several indiscriminate attacks in Kharkiv.

‘At least three schools in Kharkiv were hit by Russian military strikes on Tuesday, according to videos and photos posted to social media.

‘In one clip, a school in the northern Saltivka neighbourhood is pictured with a gaping hole in the wall, rubble and broken glass strewn across the courtyard.

‘”School number 17 of Kharkiv city,” someone can be heard saying in the video. “It flew right here, everything is in ruins, everything is fallen out, shell fragments everywhere, everything is in smoke.”

The other two schools hit in shelling were just over a kilometer (around 0.6 miles) apart, in an industrial district in Kharkiv’s southeastern area.

‘…On Tuesday [1 March 2022], two apartment buildings were directly hit, just outside City Kharkiv municipal hospital No 3. The strikes also hit an office building.

‘In one video, a fire rages at a damaged apartment complex just across the street from the hospital.

‘”The building is gone,” someone in the video says.

‘Another video shows children and family fleeing the apartment complex, and at least two bodies on the ground.

‘”…animals, simply animals,” someone said, appearing to refer to those responsible for the military strikes. “People were driving here.”

‘”A house,” another person said, adding, “Look at what they’ve done.”

‘CNN could not identify any military targets in the area.

‘…Five residential neighborhoods of Kharkiv were hit on Monday, according to a CNN analysis.

‘What appeared to be surveillance-style footage of an apartment complex on Velyka Kil’tseva Street captured panicked residents rushing for safety as rockets exploded around them.

‘The intense shelling – at least eight explosions are seen but there are more heard – lasts for 20 seconds. As the munitions rain down, people are seen running away. One individual is seen falling to the ground as explosions dot the ground around. A parked car explodes after taking a direct hit. After the hail of strikes stop, the individual that fell appears to crawl away, but then stops moving. Their condition is unknown to CNN.

‘… The Saltivka neighborhood was also hit by a multiple-launch rocket system, or MLRS, attack on Monday.

‘Videos geolocated by CNN show multiple rockets exploding closely together near the Equator supermarket, while shoppers scramble to safety.

‘One video shows a rocket booster lodged in the street pavement, as some people look at it.

‘According to the Kharkiv City Council, that shelling left one female civilian dead, and 31 wounded. The wounded are made up of 15 servicemen and 16 civilians, says the city council in a press statement. CNN cannot independently verify these numbers.

‘Dan Kaszeta, a defense specialist and an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank in London, said the images were consistent with a multiple rocket launch system attack.

‘”The appearance of at least one image of a rocket booster section lends credence to this having been a rocket attack,” he said.’^{[footnote 82]}

8.2.5 On 4 March 2022 Human Rights Watch published an article entitled ‘Ukraine: Cluster Munitions Launched Into Kharkiv Neighbourhoods; Russian Forces Indiscriminate Attacks May Amount to War Crimes’ which stated:

‘Russian forces fired cluster munitions into at least three residential areas in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, on February 28, 2022, Human Rights Watch said today. These attacks killed at least three civilians.

‘Interviews with 2 witnesses and an analysis of 40 videos and photographs reveal the use of submunitions delivered by Russian-made 9M55K Smerch cluster munition rockets. The United Nations reported nine civilian deaths and 37 injuries in attacks across the city that day.

‘“Kharkiv is under relentless attack from Russian forces and civilians are hiding in basements to evade explosions and debris,” said Steve Goose, arms director at Human Rights Watch. “Using cluster munitions in populated areas shows a brazen and callous disregard for people’s lives.”

‘Cluster munitions open in the air and disperse dozens, or even hundreds, of small submunitions over a large area. They often fail to explode on initial impact, leaving unexploded submunition duds that act like landmines if they are touched.

‘The use of inherently indiscriminate weapons in populated areas is prohibited under international humanitarian law, the laws that govern the conduct of war. An international treaty bans cluster munitions because of their widespread indiscriminate effect and long-lasting danger to civilians. Russia and Ukraine are not state parties to this treaty.

‘Given the inherently indiscriminate nature of cluster munitions and their foreseeable effects on civilians, their use as documented in Kharkiv might constitute a war crime.

‘Human Rights Watch verified and analyzed 25 videos and photographs posted on social media showing the 3 attacks or their immediate aftermath in the north, northeast, and southeast areas of the city and another 15 images taken by 2 witnesses after one of the attacks in the Shevchenkivskyi district.

‘… One of the videos analyzed, posted to Telegram at 11:29 a.m. local time on February 28, shows multiple explosions consistent with the use of cluster munitions in the northeastern Moskovskyi district. Two more videos, one posted to Telegram at 12:55 p.m. that day and one posted to Twitter at 2:23 p.m., recorded from the center of the city toward the Shevchenkivskyi district, show similar explosions.

‘The explosion signatures and rocket remnants found in the vicinity of the attacks confirm that the explosions were from submunitions delivered by 9M55K Smerch cluster munition rockets. The launcher for these rockets, a BM-30, has 12 barrels and the rockets are often fired in volleys. Each 9M55K cluster munition rocket contains 72 9N235 fragmentation submunitions.

‘Another video posted on Telegram, recorded by a security camera in the southeastern Industrialnyi district, shows at least 15 consecutive explosions in a residential street that are consistent with submunitions. The footage shows a time stamp of 10:42 a.m. on February 28. In the video, at least four people in civilian clothes can be seen on a path diving to take cover. Several cars are hit, setting one of them ablaze.’^{[footnote 83]}

8.2.6 On 8 March 2022 HRW published an article entitled ‘Ukraine: Russian Assault Kills Fleeing Civilians’ which stated:

‘For several hours on March 6, 2022, Russian forces bombarded an intersection on a road that hundreds of civilians were using to flee the Russian army’s advance in northern Ukraine to Kyiv, Human Rights Watch said today. The repeated nature of the attacks, which according to the government killed at least eight civilians, suggests that Russian forces violated their obligations under international humanitarian law not to conduct indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks that harm civilians, and failed to take all feasible measures to avoid civilian casualties.

‘According to witnesses, about a dozen Ukrainian security force members and at least two military vehicles were at the intersection during the attack, but they were vastly outnumbered by the large number of fleeing civilians. Some security forces were helping the civilians carry their luggage and children. Witnesses described hearing and seeing exchanges of fire between Ukrainian and Russian forces not in the immediate vicinity of the intersection, but at some distance away. While other witnesses could not be precise about where the exchanges of fire took place, the New York Times, which had journalists on the scene, reported that Ukrainian forces fired mortar rounds in the direction of the Russian forces from a military position about 180 meters from the intersection. Nevertheless, explosive projectiles fired by Russian forces repeatedly hit the intersection.

“Scores of civilians fleeing northern Ukraine to escape Russian shelling and potential occupation found themselves victims of yet another Russian assault,” said Richard Weir, crisis and conflict researcher at Human Rights Watch. “The hours-long bombardment on a location with evacuating civilians raises concerns that Russian forces were conducting indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks, and failing to take all feasible precautions to minimize civilian casualties.”’^{[footnote 84]}

8.2.7 On 30 March 2022, in an oral update on the situation of human rights in Ukraine, Michelle Bachelet, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights^{[footnote 85]}, stated that:

‘The persistent use of explosive weapons with wide area effects in populated areas is of immense concern. These weapons include missiles, heavy artillery shells and rockets, and airstrikes, causing massive destruction of and damage to civilian objects. In addition, my Office has received credible allegations that Russian armed forces have used cluster munitions in populated areas at least 24 times. We are also investigating allegations that Ukrainian armed forces have used such weapons.

‘Homes and administrative buildings, hospitals and schools, water stations and electricity systems have not been spared. To date we have verified 77 incidents in which medical facilities were damaged to various degrees, including 50 hospitals, 7 psycho-neurological facilities and 20 other medical facilities. Overall, 55 medical establishments were damaged, 10 destroyed, and two were looted. Actual numbers are again likely to be considerably higher, and reports of additional incidents are being corroborated by the Human Rights Monitoring Mission.

‘Indiscriminate attacks are prohibited under international humanitarian law and may amount to war crimes. The massive destruction of civilian objects and the high number of civilian casualties strongly indicate that the fundamental principles of distinction, proportionality and precaution have not been sufficiently adhered to.

‘Civilians are enduring immeasurable suffering, and the humanitarian crisis is critical. In many areas across the country, people urgently need medical supplies, food, water, shelter and basic household items.

‘… In several besieged cities, my Office has noted a significant increase in mortality rates among civilians that can be attributed to disrupted medical care coupled with conflict-related deprivation and stress.

‘People with disabilities and older people face a particularly appalling humanitarian situation. Long-term care facilities are suffering a lack of food, heating, electricity, water and medication. Many residents who have chronic health conditions rely on others for care and are struggling to access bomb shelters or safe areas. At least one facility for bedridden patients and other people with disabilities, mostly older people, came under fire while its residents were inside, with dozens of alleged casualties. My colleagues in Ukraine are working to establish the fate and whereabouts of survivors. Moreover, displaced people with disabilities, now staying at poorly equipped temporary facilities, often lack access to health care and rehabilitation services.

‘… Since the beginning of the invasion, Russian armed forces have carried out attacks and military strikes on and near large cities, including Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sievierodonetsk, Sumy, and Mariupol, and the capital, Kyiv.

‘In the besieged city of Mariupol, people are living in sheer terror. The situation is worsening by the day, with constant shelling, fighting in the streets and people struggling to survive with the bare minimum of life’s necessities including food, water and medical supplies.’^{[footnote 86]}

8.2.8 On 21 April 2020 the Guardian Newspaper published an article accusing Russian troops of using a number of weapons widely banned across the world, to kill hundreds of civilians in the Ukrainian region of Kyiv:

‘Evidence collected during a visit to Bucha, Hostomel and Borodianka, where Russian occupiers have been accused of atrocities against residents, showed that Russian troops had used cluster munitions, cluster bombs and extremely powerful unguided bombs in populated areas, which have destroyed at least eight civilian buildings.’^{[footnote 87]}

8.2.9 On 17 May 2020, the Institute for the Study of War published an assessment of Russia’s offensive in Ukraine, in which the following was noted:

‘Russian forces have intensified artillery fire on Ukrainian border settlements in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts over the past few weeks. The Ukrainian Northern Operational Command reported that Russian forces shelled the border between Sumy Oblast and Russia over 70 times on May 17

‘…Russian forces continued to launch rocket and airstrikes on Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts in an effort to disrupt transportation infrastructure in the region. Southern Operational Command also reported that Russian forces struck maritime infrastructure 70 km southwest of Mykolaiv Oblast.’^{[footnote 88]}

8.2.10 In a report tilted ‘Anyone Can Die at Any Time’ published in June 2022 which provides an overview of the security situation in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Amnesty International noted:

‘At the beginning of their invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces launched a relentless campaign of indiscriminate bombardments against Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-biggest city. They shelled residential neighbourhoods almost daily, killing hundreds of civilians and causing wholesale destruction. Many of the attacks were carried out using widely banned cluster munitions.

…’Continuing attacks have forcibly displaced hundreds of thousands of residents.

…’The repeated bombardments of residential neighbourhoods in Kharkiv are indiscriminate attacks which killed and injured hundreds of civilians, and as such constitute war crimes. This is true both for the strikes carried out using cluster as well as those conducted using other types of unguided rockets and unguided artillery shells, which are indiscriminate when used in the vicinity of concentrations of civilians. The continued use of such inaccurate explosive weapons in populated civilian areas, in the knowledge that they are repeatedly causing large numbers of civilian casualties, may even amount to directing attacks against the civilian population.’^{[footnote 89]}

8.3 War Crimes and Crimes against Humanity

8.3.1 On 28 February 2022 the ICC announced their decision to open a formal War Crimes investigation in Ukraine, following international condemnation of the Russian invasion and the unprovoked escalation of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. In the statement ICC Prosecutor, Karim A.A. Khan QC noted that there are ‘reasonable grounds to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine’’^{[footnote 90]}

8.3.2 In March 2022 Anton Drobovych, the Chief of the Ukrainian Institute of National Remembrance stated that ‘signs of war crimes, political repression, and genocide are (being) observed in the Russian army’s actions on the territory of Ukraine’^{[footnote 91]}

8.3.3 On 30 March 2022, in a televised announcement, Ukraine’s Chief Prosecutor Iryna Venediktova announced a decision by her office to open an investigation into suspected war crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine:

‘Vladimir Putin is the 21st century’s central war criminal and his forces may be committing crimes against humanity in Ukraine, or even genocide, the country’s prosecutor general has said.

Iryna Venediktova said her team had already drawn up 2,500 possible war crimes cases to pursue from the month-long Russian invasion and identified several hundred suspects. The devastation in cities like the shattered southern port of Mariupol may class as crimes against humanity because of the systematic nature of the destruction.

‘…War crimes under investigation include attacks on civilians such as the bombing of Mariupol’s drama theatre which was used as a shelter by residents. Cases also include the use of prohibited weapons. Ms Venediktova said: “If they have done it systematically, to bomb hospitals, bomb kindergartens, schools, it’s not only war crimes, it’s crimes against humanity.

‘…She said prosecutors with the help of allied countries were looking at a multi-pronged campaign to pursue cases in different courts and different jurisdictions.

‘…Poland, Germany, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, France, Slovakia, Sweden, Norway and Switzerland have all opened independent investigations into Russia’s activity in Ukraine within the first month of the conflict.’^{[footnote 92]}

8.3.4 On 4 April 2022, Reuters published an article entitled ‘In Ukrainian street, a corpse with hands bound and a bullet wound to the head’ which stated:

‘A man lay sprawled by the roadside in the Ukrainian city of Bucha on Sunday [3 April 2022], his hands tied behind his back and a bullet wound to his head, one of hundreds of local residents that officials say have been found dead in the wake of five weeks of Russian occupation.

Bucha’s deputy mayor, Taras Shapravskyi, said 50 of the dead residents, found after Russian forces withdrew from the city late last week, were the victims of extra-judicial killings carried out by Russian troops, and the officials have accused Moscow of war crimes.

‘…three bodies seen by Reuters reporters on Sunday – the corpse with the hands bound and two others which did not have bound hands – bore bullet shots to the head consistent with what Bucha mayor Anatoliy Fedoruk and his deputy described as executions.

‘In all three cases, there were no signs of any other significant injuries elsewhere in the body. All three people shot in the head were male, and all three were dressed in civilian clothing.’^{[footnote 93]}

8.3.5 On 5 April 2022 Sky News published an article entitled ‘Ukraine war: Mass graves, evidence of torture and bodies in basements – the Bucha left behind by Russian troops’ which stated:

‘The bodies of around 300 civilians have been found in Bucha since Russian troops took control of the town, about 16 miles northwest of Kyiv, in the early days of the invasion, Mr Matuyk [an individual tasked with retrieving and burying bodies in Bucha] said. He predicted more would be discovered.

‘Most of the victims were men, but he thought about 30% had been women and children.

…‘Russian troops finally pulled out of Bucha around four days ago as part of a wider withdrawal from across the Kyiv region.

‘But as Ukrainian forces pushed back into the town, they found bodies left in the streets and in basements.

‘Asked whether any of the corpses had revealed evidence of torture, Mr Matuyk said: “Yes, sure. For example, on Sunday, 20 out of 30 people had their hands tied.

‘”They died kneeling down, shot in the back of the head. We have also been collecting bodies from the streets of people who were killed riding their bicycles. Anyone who was outside riding or walking was killed systematically. It’s terrible…”

‘…In the basement at the holiday camp, three of the corpses had been shot in the head, Ukrainian officials said.

‘A fourth man had been killed by a blow to the head from a rifle butt, while the fifth victim had been shot multiple times in the chest.

‘… However, in another part of the town, one resident described to Sky News how she personally witnessed a Russian soldier shoot one of her neighbours dead.

‘Iryna, 47, said the soldier had challenged the man for stepping outside his apartment block. ‘”They asked for his papers. He said: ‘I don’t have my documents with me. I live on the ground floor and I’ll get them now’,” she recalled. ‘Iryna said she and her husband watched from their flat in the same block as he turned around to go back inside and retrieve his papers. ‘But the man, who was not quite 50 years old, had barely stepped away when the soldier shot him in the back of the head, she said.’ “He didn’t even see it coming, he didn’t even have time to say anything,” said Iryna. “My husband and I heard a pop. And he fell.” ‘They did not dare step outside to recover the body, so it lay on the ground for hours. ‘Eventually, Iryna said her husband and some other neighbours dug a grave in the mud outside the back of the apartment block. ‘The bodies of two other residents have also been buried there. ‘They too were indiscriminately killed by the Russian soldiers, according to Iryna’.’^{[footnote 94]}

8.3.6 On 6 May 2022 Amnesty International published a report titled ‘ He’s not coming back”, War crimes in Northwest areas of Kyiv Oblast’ that included allegations of Russian crimes committed against the civilian population in areas that of occupation:

‘During the initial phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in late February and early March, towns and villages northwest of the capital, Kyiv, saw some of the most serious violence. On 1 and 2 March, as Russian forces attempted to advance on Kyiv, Russian airstrikes hit tall apartment blocks in Borodyanka, about 56 kilometres northwest of Kyiv along the main road to the capital. At least 40 civilians were killed in these attacks, which were disproportionate and indiscriminate, and apparent war crimes.

By early March, Russian forces were occupying much of the region northwest of the capital. Civilians in several Russian-held towns and villages, most notably Bucha, faced extensive abuses, including extrajudicial executions, reckless shootings, and torture.

In early April, after the Russian military withdrew from the area, Ukrainian authorities said that at least 300 civilians had been killed in Bucha alone. Journalists who visited the town saw dead bodies left splayed in residential yards and on the streets. Amnesty International documented 22 cases of unlawful killings by Russian forces in Bucha and nearby areas northwest of Kyiv, most of which were apparent extrajudicial executions.

Amnesty International researchers spent 12 days in April investigating killings in Bucha, Borodyanka, Novyi Korohod, Andrivka, Zdvyzhivka, Vorzel, Makariv, and Dmytrivka. In all, they collected testimonies from 45 people who witnessed or had first-hand knowledge of the killing of their relatives and neighbours by Russian soldiers, as well as 39 others who witnessed or had first-hand knowledge of air strikes that hit large apartment buildings.’^{[footnote 95]}

8.3.7 On 6 June, Pramila Patten, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict advised the Security Council that allegations of sexual violence by Russian troops in Ukraine are mounting.

‘As of 3 June, the Human Rights Monitoring Team of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights had received reports of 124 alleged acts of conflict-related sexual across Ukraine.

Women and girls constituted most of the alleged victims, while some reporting instances of sexual violence were also men and boys. A national hotline on domestic violence, human trafficking and gender-based discrimination has been set up, and has received multiple shocking reports ranging from gang rape, to coercion, where loved ones are forced to watch an act of sexual violence committed against a partner or a child.’^{[footnote 96]}

8.4 Damage to infrastructure

8.4.1 On 3 March 2022 the BBC published an article entitled ‘Ukraine conflict: Before and after images reveal Russian destruction’ which stated:

‘Russian missile attacks have devastated cities, towns and villages across Ukraine. These before and after images show some of the destruction caused to civilian areas since the Russian invasion last week.

‘While Russian forces remain some distance from the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, there have been a number of deadly aerial attacks on the city.

‘The apartment block below was hit by a Russian missile in the early hours of last Saturday [26 February 2022].

‘… Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, has been the focus of intense aerial bombardments by the Russians for several days now and the centre of the city has been badly damaged.

‘Ukrainian officials said residential and other areas in the city had been “pounded all night” on Wednesday by indiscriminate shelling, which United Nations prosecutors are investigating as a possible war crime.

‘… Chernihiv, a city 120km (75 miles) to the northeast of Kyiv, has also faced heavy shelling in recent days by Russian forces invading from the north.

‘Officials said more than 30 people were killed on Thursday by attacks on residential areas in the city, including schools and a high-rise apartment building.

‘Satellite images of the nearby village of Rivnopillya, which sits just to the north of Chernihiv, show craters in the ground and smoke billowing from burning homes following missile attacks by Russian forces.^{[footnote 97]}

8.4.2 On 28 March 2022 ABC News published an article entitled ‘What’s the cost of damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure amid Russia’s invasion?’ which stated:

‘The cost of direct damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure amid Russia’s ongoing invasion has reached almost an estimated $63 billion, according to an analysis by the Kyiv School of Economics.

‘Shocking images and videos have emerged in recent weeks showing just some of the devastation across Ukraine since Russian forces attacked on Feb. 24. Where businesses, homes, hospitals, schools and other infrastructure once stood, there are now massive piles of unrecognizable rubble and crumbling shells of concrete.

‘The KSE Institute, an analytical unit of the Kyiv School of Economics in Ukraine’s capital, has been collecting and analyzing data from the “Russia Will Pay” project, launched in collaboration with the Ukrainian president’s office and the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy.

‘Through the resource, Ukrainian citizens, government officials and local authorities can confidentially submit reports on the loss of or damage to physical infrastructure across the country as a result of the war, including roads, residential buildings, businesses and other facilities. Analysts at the KSE Institute then assess those reported damages and estimate the financial value.

‘The latest analysis shows that, as of March 24, at least 4,431 residential buildings, 92 factories and warehouses, 378 institutions of secondary and higher education, 138 health care institutions, 12 airports, seven thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants have been damaged, destroyed or seized in Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24 – totaling an estimated $62,889,000. Compared to the previous estimate published on March 17, net growth amounted to $3.5 billion, according to the KSE Institute.’^{[footnote 98]}

8.5 Displacement

8.5.1 On 30 March 2022 UNHCR published an update on the situation in Ukraine which stated: ‘The Russian Federation launched a military offensive against Ukraine on 24 February 2022. In 5 weeks, a quarter of the population of Ukraine have been forced to flee their homes. As of today, more than 4 million refugees have fled Ukraine, making this the fastest growing refugee crisis since World War II. A further 6.5 million people have been displaced internally within Ukraine.’^{[footnote 99]}

8.5.2 The same source published the following image showing the routes taken out of Ukraine refugees:

^{[footnote 100]}

8.5.3 According to the UNHCR’s Operation Data Portal as of 13 June 2022 the below countries have received the following number of refugees from Ukraine:^{[footnote 101]}

• Russia- 1,188,807

• Poland: - 1,152,364

• Romania: - 89,784

• Republic of Moldova: - 86,254

• Hungary: - 24,091

• Slovakia: - 77,330

• Belarus: - 8,027

Terms of Reference

A ‘Terms of Reference’ (ToR) is a broad outline of what the CPIN seeks to cover. They form the basis for the country information section. The Home Office’s Country Policy and Information Team uses some standardised ToR, depending on the subject, and these are then adapted depending on the country concerned.

For this particular CPIN, the following topics were identified prior to drafting as relevant and on which research was undertaken:

• Background and timeline to conflict

• Actors

  • Russia – number, size, intent and capacity

  • Ukraine – number, size, intent and capacity

• Geographical scope of conflict

• Security incidents

  • Infrastructure targeted

  • Frequency and density in relation to local population

  • Variation by place, time and groups affected

• Number of civilian casualties

  • Fatalities and injuries (also as a proportion of total population)

  • Variation by place, time and group

• Conflict-induced displacement

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Changes from last version of this note

First version of this note.

1. D-map.com, ‘Map Ukraine’, no date ↩

2. CIA World Factbook, ‘Ukraine’, updated 30 March 2022 ↩

3. CityPopulation.de, ‘Ukraine: Provinces and Major Cities’, no date ↩

4. BBC, ‘Ukraine invasion: Misleading claims continue to go viral’, 28 February 2022 ↩

5. BBC, ‘Ukraine invasion: False claims the war is a hoax go viral’, 8 March 2022 ↩

6. BBC, ‘Why it’s so difficult to count victims in war’, 2 March 2022 ↩

7. CFR, ‘About’ no date ↩

8. Euractiv, ‘Zelenskiy asks Biden why Ukraine still not in NATO’, 2 February 2021 ↩

9. Center for Strategic & International Studies, ‘The Russian and Ukrainian…War Scare’, 21 Sept 2021 ↩

10. Reuters, ‘Ukraine says Russia has nearly 100,000 troops near its border’, 13 November 2021 ↩

11. Reuters, ‘Biden warns Putin of sanctions, aid for Ukraine military if Russia invades’, 8 Dec 2021 ↩

12. The Guardian, ‘Russia issues list of demands …’, 17 Dec 2021 ↩

13. The Guardian, ‘Ukraine hit by “massive” cyber-attack on government websites’, 14 January 2022 ↩

14. Reuters, ‘Russian forces arrive in Belarus for joint military drills’, 17 January 2022 ↩

15. NATO, ‘NATO Allies send more ships, jets to enhance deterrence and defence…’, 24 January 2022 ↩

16. Reuters, ‘U.S. responds to Russia security demands as Ukraine tensions mount’, 27 January 2022 ↩

17. Reuters, ‘Putin says West has not addressed key concerns in Ukraine standoff’, 28 January 2022 ↩

18. Reuters, ‘U.S sending nearly 3,000 troops to Eastern Europe in coming days’, 2 February 2022 ↩

19. The Guardian, ‘Russia confirms “partial” withdrawal of troops from Ukraine border’, 15 Feb 2022 ↩

20. Reuters, ‘Russia has massed up to 190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine…’, 18 Feb 2022 ↩

21. Reuters, ‘Putin oversees nuclear drills, U.S. says Russian forces “poised to strike”…’, 20 Feb 2022 ↩

22. Reuters, ‘Extracts from Putin’s speech on Ukraine’, 21 February 2022 ↩

23. Reuters, ‘West unveils sanctions…more…if Russia carries out full-scale…invasion’, 23 Feb 2022 ↩

24. Evening Standard, ‘Russia-Ukraine timeline: Ukraine’s turbulent history…’, updated 24 Feb 2022 ↩

25. Reuters, ‘Ukraine separatists seek Russian help as U.S. says attack is ready’, 24 February 2022 ↩

26. Evening Standard, ‘Russia-Ukraine timeline: Ukraine’s turbulent history…’, updated 24 Feb 2022 ↩

27. Independent, ‘How do Russia and Ukraine’s militaries compare?’, 15 February 2022 ↩

28. ACLED, ‘About ACLED’, no date ↩

29. ACLED, ‘Regional Overview: Europe …19-25 February 2022’, 3 March 2022 ↩

30. UKMOD (@DefenceHQ), ‘In the early hours of the morning, President Putin…’, 24 Feb 2022 ↩

31. UNHCR, ‘Protection Cluster: Ukraine Response – Protection Snapshot…’, 27 March 2022 ↩

32. ACLED, ‘Regional Overview: Europe … 26 February – 4 March 2022’, 10 March 2022 ↩

33. UKMOD (@DefenceHQ), ‘The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is…’, 4 March 2022 ↩

34. ACLED, ‘Data Export Tool – Ukraine: 24 February 2022 – 25 March 2022’, 29 March 2022 ↩

35. ACLED, ‘Event Definitions’, (page 1-4), no date ↩

36. UNHCR, ‘Protection Cluster: Ukraine Response – Protection Snapshot…’, 10 March 2022 ↩

37. ACLED, ‘Regional Overview: Europe … 5 – 11 March 2022’, 17 March 2022 ↩

38. UKMOD (@DefenceHQ), ‘The illegal and unprovoked invasion in Ukraine …’, 11 March 2022 ↩

39. ACLED, ‘Ukraine Crisis: 5 – 11 March 2022’, 18 March 2022 ↩

40. ACLED, ‘Data Export Tool – Ukraine: 24 February 2022 – 25 March 2022’, 29 March 2022 ↩

41. UNHCR, ‘Protection Cluster: Ukraine Response – Protection Snapshot…’, 18 March 2022 ↩

42. ACLED, ‘Regional Overview: Europe … 12 – 18 March 2022’, 24 March 2022 ↩

43. UKMOD (@DefenceHQ), ‘The illegal and unprovoked invasion in Ukraine …’, 18 March 2022 ↩

44. ACLED, ‘Ukraine Crisis: 12-18 March 2022’, 24 March 2022 ↩

45. ACLED, ‘Data Export Tool – Ukraine: 24 February 2022 – 25 March 2022’, 29 March 2022 ↩

46. UNHCR, ‘Protection Cluster: Ukraine Response – Protection Snapshot…’, 27 March 2022 ↩

47. ACLED, ‘Regional Overview: Europe… 19-25 March 2022’, 31 March 2022 ↩

48. ACLED, ‘Ukraine Crisis: 19-25 March 2022’, 1 April 2022 ↩

49. UKMOD (@DefenceHQ), ‘The illegal and unprovoked invasion in Ukraine …’, 25 March 2022 ↩

50. ACLED, ‘Data Export Tool – Ukraine: 24 February 2022 – 25 March 2022’, 29 March 2022 ↩

51. UNHCR ‘[Ukraine situation flash update No 9 21 04 2022 (2) 22 April 2022 ↩

52. OCHR Ukraine: civilian casualty update 22 April 2022 - OHCHR 22 April 2022 ↩

53. ACLED, Regional Overview: Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia 16-22 April 2022 (acleddata.com) 28 April 2022 ↩

54. ACLED Ukraine Crisis: 16-22 April 2022 (acleddata.com) 28 April 2022 ↩

55. UKMOD (@DefenceHQ), ‘The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is…’, 24 April 2022 ↩

56. ACLED, ‘Data Export Tool – Ukraine: 25 March 2022 – 24 April 2022’, 14 June 2022 ↩

57. UNHCR Ukraine situation flash update No 15 30 05 2022.pdf ↩

58. OCHR Ukraine: civilian casualty update 3 June 2022 - OHCHR 3 June 2022 ↩

59. ACLED, Regional Overview: Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia 21-27 May 2022, 1 June 2022 ↩

60. ACLED Ukraine Crisis: 28 May-3 June 2022 (acleddata.com) 10 June 2022 ↩

61. UKMOD (@DefenceHQ), ‘The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is…’, 24 May 2022 ↩

62. UKMOD (@DefenceHQ), ‘The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is…’, 1 June 2022 ↩

63. ACLED, ‘Data Export Tool – Ukraine: 25 April 2022 – 3 June 2022’, 14 June 2022 ↩

64. Reuters Graphics, ‘Russia invades Ukraine’, updated 25 February 2022 ↩

65. Reuters, ‘Invasion could drive 5 million Ukrainians to flee abroad – U.N.’ 25 February 2022 ↩

66. OHCHR, ‘Ukraine: Humanitarian Impact Situation Report As of 17 March 2022’ 18 March 2022 ↩

67. OHCHR, ‘Ukraine: civilian casualty update 1 April 2022’, 1 April 2022 ↩

68. OHCHR, ‘Bachelet urges respect for international humanitarian law …’ 22 April 2022 ↩

69. FCDO, ‘Growing number of civilian casualties in Russia’s barbaric war against Ukraine…’, 26 May 2022 ↩

70. ICRC, ‘Ukraine: The “scale of destruction defies comprehension”‘, 3 June 2020 ↩

71. OCHR, Ukraine: civilian casualty update 3 June 2022’, 3 June 2022 ↩

72. OHCHR, ‘Ukraine: civilian casualty update 8 March 2022’, 8 March 2022 ↩

73. OHCHR, ‘Ukraine: civilian casualty update 15 March 2022’, 15 March 2022 ↩

74. OHCHR, ‘Ukraine: civilian casualty updated 22 March 2022’, 22 March 2022 ↩

75. OHCHR, ‘Ukraine: civilian casualty updated 29 March 2022’, 29 March 2022 ↩

76. OHCHR, ‘Ukraine: civilian casualty update 1 April 2022’, 1 April 2022 ↩

77. OHCHR, ‘Ukraine: civilian casualty update 29 April 2022’, 29 April 2022 ↩

78. OCHCR, ‘Ukraine: civilian casualty update 31 May 2022’, 31 May 2022 ↩

79. Bellingcat, ‘About’, no date ↩

80. Bellingcat, ‘Invasion of Ukraine: Tracking use of Cluster munitions in civilian areas’, 27 Feb 2022 ↩

81. Reuters, ‘Ukraine’s Kharkiv struck by cluster bombs, experts say’, 1 March 2022 ↩

82. CNN, ‘Russia sends a message to all of Ukraine by hitting these civilian areas…’, 4 March 2022 ↩

83. HRW, ‘Ukraine: Cluster Munitions Launched Into Kharkiv Neighbourhoods…’, 4 March 2022 ↩

84. HRW, ‘Ukraine: Russian Assault Kills Fleeing Civilians’, 8 March 2022 ↩

85. OHCHR, ‘High Commissioner’, no date ↩

86. OHCHR, ‘Update to the Human Rights Council on Ukraine’, 30 March 2022 ↩

87. The Guardian Newspaper, ‘Russia using cluster bombs to kill Ukrainian civilians, analysis suggests’, 21 April 2022 ↩

88. Institute for the Study of War, ‘Ukraine Conflict Updates‘, 17 May 2022 ↩

89. Amnesty International, ‘Anyone can die at any time’ 13 June 2022. ↩

90. ICC, ‘Statement of ICC Prosecutor, Karim A.A. Khan QC, on the Situation in Ukraine…’, 28 February 2022 ↩

91. UKRINFORM ‘War crimes, political repression, genocide …’ no date ↩

92. The Telegraph, ‘I’m building 2,500 war crimes cases against Vladimir Putin’s invasion…’, 30 March 2022 ↩

93. Reuters, ‘In Ukrainian street, a corpse with hands bound and a bullet wound …’, 4 April 2022 ↩

94. Sky News, ‘Ukraine war: Mass graves, evidence of torture …’, 5 April 2022 ↩

95. Amnesty International, ‘Ukraine: “He’s not coming back”… ’ 6 May 2022 ↩

96. UN News, ‘Reports of sexual violence in Ukraine rising fast …’, 6 June 2022 ↩

97. BBC, ‘Ukraine conflict: Before and after images reveal Russian destruction’ 3 March 2022 ↩

98. ABC News, ‘What’s the cost of damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure…’, 28 March 2022 ↩

99. UNHCR, ‘Ukraine Situation Flash Update #6’, 30 March 2022 ↩

100. UNHCR, ‘Ukraine Situation Flash Update #6’, 30 March 2022 ↩

101. UNHCR Operational Data Portal, ‘Situation Ukraine Refugee Situation (unhcr.org), 13 June 2022 ↩