Research and analysis

University of Manchester: UK COVID-19 predictions, 23 March 2020

Paper prepared by the University of Manchester.

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 8 April 2022

Documents

University of Manchester: UK COVID-19 predictions, 23 March 2020

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Details

Paper prepared by the University of Manchester on the estimated growth of COVID-19 in the UK. This paper was available for participants to read at SAGE 18 on 23 March 2020, but not considered or discussed in the meeting.

This paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

This preliminary analysis was submitted for publication in a corrected and extended version on 31/3/2020 in arXiv and appeared peer-reviewed and published in Philosophical Transactions B.

This paper should be read in the context of the SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19 from SAGE 18. It should also be read alongside the other papers informing the consensus statement:

• LSHTM: Nowcasting the COVID-19 ICU demand in England, 19 March 2020
• Lancaster University: UK COVID-19 LAD/Age model - situation report, 20 March 2020
• PHE: Real time model - initial results, 1 March 2020
• PHE: Effectiveness of interventions in Italy, 23 March 2020

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 8 April 2022