Research and analysis

Water situation: November 2022 summary

Updated 11 January 2023

Applies to England

Monthly rainfall totals in November were above average in all catchments across England. As a result of the rainfall, soil moisture deficits declined quickly and at the end of the month soils were wetter than would be expected across most of England for this time of year. River flows increased at almost all sites in November and the majority of sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Groundwater levels increased at two thirds of indicator sites, and the same proportion were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Reservoir stocks in November increased at all except one of the reservoir and reservoir groups we report on, although more than half of reservoirs were still classed as below normal or lower for the time of year.

1. Rainfall

The November rainfall total for England was 133.9mm which represents 164% of the 1961-1990 long term average (LTA) for the time of year (145% of the 1991-2020 LTA). All catchments received above average rainfall during November. The wettest catchment was the River Ouse in the east Sussex which received 303% of November’s LTA rainfall. The driest catchment was Esk (Dumfries) in the Scottish borders where 102% of LTA rainfall for November was received. Sixty three catchments recorded rainfall totals within the top ten wettest for November, and fifteen all in south-east England saw their wettest ever November using records starting in 1891.

November rainfall totals were classed as above normal or higher for almost the whole country, with only seven catchments classed as normal for the time of year. At a regional scale, November rainfall totals were normal in north-east England, and above normal in north-west England. All other regions were notably high for the time of year.

November was the third consecutive month of above average rainfall for England as a whole and the wettest since 2009, with 3 month cumulative totals in almost all catchments being above normal or higher. The 6 month cumulative rainfall totals were classed as normal for most of the country, although some catchments on the east coast were below normal and catchments on the Sussex coast were above normal or higher. The 12 month cumulative rainfall totals were classed as normal or lower in all catchments across England.

2. Soil moisture deficit

Soil moisture deficits (SMD) continued to decline quickly across the country during November. Soils became wetter in many areas due to above average rainfall and lower temperatures.

With the above average rainfall, the end of November SMDs were below average across much of England, leaving soils wetter than would be expected for the time of year.

3. River flows

November monthly mean river flows increased at all except one of the indicator sites we report on since October. Two thirds of sites were above normal or higher for the time of year, and a quarter were normal for the time of year. Despite increases in flows, three sites were below normal for the time of year.

At the regional index sites monthly mean flows were all normal or higher for the time of year. The River Thames (naturalised flows) at Kingston was normal after increased flows helped it recover from below normal monthly mean flows in October. Also in the south east the Great Stour had notably high monthly mean flows, having been notably low in October. The River Dove in central England was also notably high for the time of year. Haydon Bridge on the South Tyne was the only site to see a decrease in monthly mean flows, as it returned to normal flows having been above normal for the time of year in October.

4. Groundwater levels

At the end of November, groundwater levels increased at two thirds of the reported indicator sites as wet soils and above average rainfall helped some aquifers begin their seasonal recovery. The other third of sites continued to decline. Almost half of the end of month groundwater levels were classed as normal for the time of year. The remaining sites were split, with three sites above normal and two exceptionally high, while the rest were below normal or lower for the time of year.

The major aquifer index sites showed a mixed picture at the end of November with all except one site seeing a change in class from October. The most notable change was at Chilgrove in the Chichester Chalk on the south coast, where groundwater levels increased quickly through November to end the month at above normal levels, having ended October at exceptionally low levels. In contrast Little Bucket in the East Kent Stour Chalk and Stonor Park in the South West Chilterns Chalk both remained at below normal levels at the end of November. Groundwater levels at Jackaments Bottom in the Burford Jurassic Limestone recovered quickly from exceptionally low levels at the end of October, and ended the month with normal levels.

5. Reservoir storage

At the end of November reservoirs stocks had increased at all except one of the reservoirs and reservoir groups we report on. Fifteen reservoirs or reservoir groups saw an increase of more than 20% in their stocks in comparison to the end of September. Of particular note were Ardingly and Bough Beech in the south east which increased by 55% and 41% respectively. Despite these increases, more than half of all reservoirs or reservoir groups were classed as below normal or lower for the time of year.

At the regional scale, total reservoir stocks ranged from 43% in south-west England to 83% in north-east England. Total reservoir stocks for England were at 73% of total capacity at the end of November.

6. Forward look

Early December was dominated by cold and dry weather across most of the country. Below average temperatures are forecast for the middle of December with an increased chance of colder and wintery conditions. There is also an increased likelihood of a drier December.

For the three month period from December to February near average temperatures are forecast with an increased chance of cold weather in early winter. There is a reduced chance of wet conditions with stormy conditions and high winds less likely than normal.

7. Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of March 2023 river flows have a greater likelihood of being above normal in south east and south west England. Across the rest of the country river flows have a greater chance of being normal or below normal. By the end of September 2023 river flows have an increased chance of being above normal in all regions except in the eastern and central areas where river flows are most likely to be normal and below normal respectively.

8. Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of March 2023 groundwater levels have a higher than expected chance of being normal or lower in all regions except south east and central England, where groundwater levels have an increased likelihood of being above normal or higher. By the end of September 2023 groundwater levels have a higher than expected chance of being normal across all regions except northern England, where groundwater levels have an increased chance of being below normal.

Author: National water resources hydrology team, [email protected]

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.