Research and analysis

Water situation: November 2023 summary

Updated 11 January 2024

Applies to England

• Publication for Northern Ireland
• Publication for Scotland
• Publication for Wales

November rainfall totals were in the above normal range across most of England, with almost all catchments receiving above average rainfall. Soil moisture deficits (SMD) reduced across England during November as soils became wetter due to the continued rainfall in many areas. River flows increased at almost all of the sites we report on, with the majority of sites reporting above normal monthly mean flows. Groundwater levels increased at all but one of the sites we report on, with levels classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Reservoir stocks increased at three quarters of the reservoirs or reservoir groups we report on, with almost half of all reservoirs classed as above normal or higher for the time of year.

1. Rainfall

The November rainfall total for England was 110.8mm which represents 136% of the 1961 to 1990 long term average (LTA) for the time of year (120% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA). Almost all catchments throughout the country received above average rainfall during November, with only 2 catchments receiving below average. The wettest hydrological area relative to the LTA was the Dover Chalk catchment in south-east England, which received 209% of LTA rainfall. The driest hydrological area was the Esk (Cumbria) in north-west England which received 78% of LTA rainfall in October.

November rainfall totals were classed as above normal or higher for the time of year in most of the catchments across England. The majority of catchments, predominately in the north and south of the country, were classed as receiving above normal rainfall for the time of year. Just under a quarter of catchments, spread across central and north-west England reported normal rainfall during the month. Rainfall at a regional scale was equally split during November, with central, east, and north-east England classed as normal, and the north-west, south-west, and south-east of England as above normal. November’s rainfall total for England as whole was also above normal.

With the exception of the Esk in Cumbria, 3-month cumulative rainfall totals for catchments throughout the country were classified as above normal or higher. Almost a third of catchments experienced rainfall totals classed as exceptionally high for this period. The 6-month cumulative rainfall totals show a similar picture, with rainfall classed as above normal or higher across the majority of catchments in England. The 12-month cumulative rainfall totals were notably high in more than half of catchments across England. The remaining catchments were either above normal or notably high with only 3 catchments classed as normal: the Tweed in north-east England, the Esk (Cumbria) in north-west England, and Lower Wye in Wales.

2. Soil moisture deficit

Soil moisture deficits (SMD) continued to reduce throughout England during November, as soils throughout the country continued to respond to the above average rainfall during October and November. Soil moisture deficits across the south-east and east of England experienced the greatest decreases during November.

Across all of England SMDs were below the LTA, leaving soils wetter than expected at the end of November. Soils across much of south-west, central, north-east and north-west England were near or at saturation levels with only minimal soil moisture deficits remaining in parts of south-east and east England.

3. River flows

November monthly mean river flows increased at the majority of indicator sites we report on compared to the previous month. Almost all sites were reporting above normal or higher flows for the time of year, with the majority of sites classed as notably high. A third of sites, predominately in south-west England, particularly Wessex, were classed as exceptionally high. Only 2 sites located in north-west England reported monthly mean river flow classed as normal for November.

Monthly mean river flows increased at all the regional index sites in November compared to October. Flows at 3 sites were classed as exceptionally high: Marston-on-Dove in central England on the River Dove, Horton on the Great Stour in south-east England, and Thorverton on the Exe in south-west England. Kingston on the River Thames was the only location to report notably high flows during November. Additionally, 3 sites reported as above normal for the time of year: Offord on the Bedford Ouse, Haydon Bridge on the River South Tyne, and Carlton on the River Lune.

4. Groundwater levels 

By the end of November, groundwater levels had increased at the majority of indicator sites we report on, with groundwater sites throughout the country classed as normal or higher by the end of November. Two thirds of indicator sites, concentrated in the south-east, and north-west of England, were classed as either exceptionally high or notably high. Levels at Priors Heyes in north-west England continued to experience the exceptionally high groundwater levels first observed in October, as the West Cheshire Sandstone continues to recover from the effects of historic abstraction.

End of October groundwater levels at all major aquifer index sites increased, with Dalton Estate in the Hull and East Riding Chalk increasing to exceptionally high status. The majority of major aquifer sites reported notably high groundwater levels: Redlands Hall in the Cam and Ely Ouse Chalk, Skirwith in the Carlisle Basin, Chilgrove in the Chichester Chalk, and Little Bucket in the Stour chalk. Two aquifers: Jackaments Bottom in the Burford Jurassic Limestone, and Stonor Park South West Chilterns chalk, reported above normal and normal groundwater levels respectively.

5. Reservoir storage

Reservoir storage during the month increased at over three-quarters of the reservoirs or reservoir groups we report on. By the end of November storage at half of the reservoirs or reservoir groups we report on was classed as higher than normal. Five reservoirs recorded storage increases greater than 20%, with Ardingly in south-east England registering the largest increase of 32%. Vyrnwy in north Wales, supplying north-west England, continues to be classed as exceptionally high. In addition, Carsington and Ogston in central England, reported exceptionally high flows for the first time this year. In contrast, a single site; Colliford in south-west England, is classed as below normal. The Dee System in Wales remains notably low due to ongoing reservoir maintenance.

At a regional scale, total reservoir storage increased across almost all of England by the end of November, with only the south-east of England reporting a small decrease. For England as a whole, reservoir storage has increased by 3% to a total of 88%.

6. Forward look

December started with wet weather across much of England. Rainfall totals were particularly high in south-west, central and north-east England, although much of the precipitation that fell in the north-east was snow. The rest of the month is likely to remain unsettled for many, with bands of rain moving in from the west, bringing the wettest weather to high ground in the west. A drier spell may develop in the middle of the month, with frost and fog in the south. Temperatures are likely to be mild, with above average temperatures in the south and west.

For the 3 month period for the UK from December to February there is a higher than normal likelihood of mild, wet conditions. Early in the period there is a slightly higher chance of wet weather impacts from heavy rainfall, and stormy conditions including high winds. Later in the period there is the greatest chance of impacts from cold weather. 

7. Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of March 2024, river flows in east and south-east England have a higher than expected chance of being above normal or higher. Across the rest of England, river flows are projected to be normal for the time of year. By the end of September 2024, river flows across England are projected to be normal or higher for the time of year.

8. Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of March 2024, groundwater levels across most of England have a higher than expected chance of being above normal or higher. In south-west and Central England groundwater levels are projected to be normal for the time of year. By the end of September 2024, groundwater levels have a higher likelihood of being normal or higher in north-west, north-east, central and east England. In south-west and south-east England groundwater levels are projected to be normal or higher.

Author: National Water Resources Hydrology Team, [email protected]

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.