Research and analysis

Water situation: November 2024 summary

Updated 12 December 2024

Applies to England

Rainfall during November showed a divide across the country; areas in the north-east and north-west reported below long term average (LTA) rainfall for the time of year, while central and western parts reported above LTA rainfall. Soil moisture deficits (SMD) remained small across most of England; soils in many regions are wetter than would be expected for the time of year. Monthly mean river flows decreased at the majority of sites during November, however, flows at many sites continued to be classed as normal for the time of year. Groundwater levels increased at two-thirds of reporting sites and levels at more than half of the sites classed as either notably or exceptionally high. Reservoir stocks showed a slight increase during November, ending the month with a total of 83% storage.

1. Rainfall

The rainfall total for England for November was 76mm which represents 93% of the 1961 to 1990 LTA for the time of year (82% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA). Almost three-quarters of hydrological areas received average rainfall during November. The wettest hydrological area was the Avon Dart and Erme in south-west England which received 202mm of rainfall which is 139% of the LTA. In contrast, the Seaham Area in north-east England was the driest hydrological area having received just 42% of LTA rainfall (29mm) in November.

Rainfall totals during November were classed as normal or higher in 118 (85%) of the hydrological areas we report on. Ninety-eight areas (71%) were classed as normal for the time of year, with 20 (14%) areas located in the south-west, and central parts of England classed as above normal. Rainfall totals across 13 (9%) of hydrological areas mostly across the north of England were classed as below normal, with the remaining 8 areas in the north-east of the country reporting notably low rainfall for the time of year .

The 3-month cumulative rainfall totals show a divide with rainfall across the majority of southern and central parts of England classed as notably or exceptionally high, compared to the northern and eastern parts of the country, where rainfall was classed as normal. A similar pattern can be observed in the 6-month cumulative rainfall totals. The 12-month cumulative totals show that many catchments are classed as having received exceptionally high rainfall for England as a whole; the December 2023 to November 2024 period is the fifth wettest since records began in 1871 .

2. Soil moisture deficit

As would be expected at this time of year, SMD remained close to zero across the majority of England as soils remain at field capacity from wet conditions during the preceding months. However, some small deficits persist across parts of eastern England.

Soils continue to be wetter than expected in many regions across England, with only the north-west and south-west parts of the country reporting an SMD of around average for the time of year .

3. River flows

Monthly mean river flows  decreased at the majority of indicator sites during November, however flow at the majority of sites (95%) continues to be classed as normal or above for the time of year.

Just over half of sites (53%) had monthly mean river flows classed as normal for the time of year, followed by 9 sites (16%) with flow classed as above normal. Ten sites clustered in the Wessex area of south-west England were reporting monthly mean flows classed as notably high, while the River Ver at Hansteads in south-east England was the only site to report exceptionally high monthly mean flows. Additionally, the River Ver at Hansteads recorded its highest ever November monthly mean river flow since records began in 1969.

All regional index sites saw a decrease in monthly mean river flows in November compared to October. Monthly mean flows at 5 out of the 7 index sites were classed as normal. The River Ouse at Offord reported a monthly mean flow of above normal, while flow on the South Tyne at Haydon Bridge was classed as notably low for the time of year.

4. Groundwater levels

At the end of November, two-thirds of indicator sites reported an increase in groundwater levels. All groundwater indicators sites were classed as normal or above for the time of year, with the majority (57%) classed as either notably high or exceptionally high.

Four sites recorded their highest end of November groundwater level on record (record start given in brackets), including:

• Weir Farm (1983) in Bridgnorth Sandstone in central England
• Coxmoor (1990) in Idle Torne Sandstone in central England
• Stonor Park (1961) in the south-west Chilterns Chalk in south-east England
• Priors Heyes (1972) in Permo-triassic sandstone in central England

Groundwater levels increased at 5 of the 8 regional groundwater sites and all were classed as normal or above for the time of year.

Exceptionally high groundwater levels were reported at Weir Farm in the Bridgnorth Sandstone (central England), and Stonor Park in the south-west Chilterns Chalk (south-east England). Groundwater levels at Skirwith in the Carlisle Basin Sandstone, and Redlands Hall in the Cam and Ely Ouse Chalk in east England were classed as notably high. Little Bucket in the East Kent Stour Chalk in south-east England and Jackaments Bottom in the Burford Jurassic Limestone, were both classed as above normal. Two aquifers: Chilgrove (Chichester Chalk) in south-east England, and Dalton Estate Well (Hull and East Riding Chalk) in north-east England were classed as normal for the time of year.

5. Reservoir storage

During November reservoir storage increased at more than four-fifths of the reservoirs and reservoir groups that we report on. The largest stock increase was at Bough Beech in south-east England where storage increased by 19%. Five reservoirs or reservoir groups reported a small decrease in stocks at the end of November, with decreases ranging between 1 to 9 percentage points.

Just over half (52%) of the reservoirs we report on were classed as normal for the time of year at the end of November. Two (6%) reservoirs both in central England (Blithfield and Clywedog) were classed as notably high for time of year, with a further 10 (32%) reservoirs classes as above normal. Three (10%) reservoirs and reservoir groups were classed as below normal:

• Kielder (north-east)
• Haweswater and Thirlmere (north-west)
• the Dee system (Wales)

Both the Dee system, and Haweswater and Thirlmere may have been impacted by planned works.

At a regional scale, total reservoir storage increased across the country, with central England reporting the biggest increase of 6%. For England as whole, total storage increased during November by 2% ending the month at 83%.

6. Forward look

December had an unsettled start, with the wettest conditions in the south-west of England. Through mid-December conditions are expected to settle with longer, drier spells with overnight frosts and fogs patches probable for many areas of England. Towards the end of the month there is an increased likelihood of wet and windy spells, especially in northern England where some sleet or snow is possible. Southern areas have a better chance of more drier, settled conditions. Temperatures will vary around average with both some colder and milder spells anticipated through this period.

There is an increased chance of the 3-month period from December to February being wetter than normal and there is also an increased chance of stormy conditions with high winds. Although there remains the possibility of cold spells during this period there is a greater than normal chance of conditions being mild.

6.1 Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of March 2025, flows at almost all the rivers across the country are projected to be normal or higher. The greatest flows are expected in south-west and south-east England, where many rivers are supported by groundwater discharge. By the end of September 2025, river flows across England are projected to be normal with an increased likelihood of above normal or higher flows in south-west, south-east and central England.

6.2 Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of March 2025, groundwater levels are projected to be above normal or higher across most of England, as groundwater levels remain higher than expected due to ongoing wet weather. By the end of September 2025, groundwater levels are projected to be above normal across most of England, with a levels in south-east and central England more likely to see normal groundwater levels.

Author: National Water Resources Hydrology Team, [email protected]

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.