Official Statistics

Forces Help to Buy Scheme quarterly statistics - Quarter 3 2022/23 - Background Quality Report

Updated 4 May 2023

Forces Help to Buy Statistics

1. Contact Details

Please contact Analysis Publications Team, [email protected], if you have any queries about the Forces Help to Buy (FHTB) publication.

2. Introduction and Statistical Presentation

The Forces Help to Buy (FHTB) statistics are published on a quarterly basis. The report includes information on the total number of Armed Forces personnel who have made first stage applications (those who pass initial eligibility checks) and second stage applications (those who pass detailed eligibility checks) to the FHTB scheme as well as those who have received FHTB payments each month since it was launched in April 2014. It also provides a breakdown of recipients by service and rank. It summarises the total monetary value of payments made and an average amount per person. Statistics on the proportions of purchased or extended properties by UK region, and on the age of personnel using the scheme are included on a biannual basis. A purchased property corresponds to a single payment received under the FHTB scheme.

3. Statistical Processing

There are three different sets of data which are used in the production of this report:

• Data on first and second stage applications and FHTB payments, as well as the total value of FHTB payments, are provided by the FHTB team at Defence Business Services (DBS) Military Personnel who administer the scheme. This information is collated in an Excel spreadsheet by desk officers who process applications and payments; there is a daily and a monthly payment register which records transactions (the DBS team compare daily and monthly payment registers and reconcile any differences before reporting monthly payments). Data is compiled on the second working day of each month (for the preceding month) and sent to Analysis Publications.

• Service and Rank breakdowns are provided by the Chief of Defence Personnel Research and Evidence (CDPRE) team using a bespoke report from the Joint Personnel Administration (JPA) system which collates information included on an individual’s pay records. These are compiled into an Excel spreadsheet and sent to Analysis Publications each quarter on request, to be ready for the date of report publication.

• Region breakdown is provided by the CDPRE team using a bespoke report from the JPA system which collates information included on an individual’s pay records since the scheme began. This is compiled into an Excel spreadsheet and sent to the Analysis Publications team biannually on request. Regional proportions are calculated based on the postcodes of purchased properties. Postcodes are matched to region using the National Statistics Postcode Lookup (NSPL) February 2022 dataset. In a small number of cases, a postcode may be attributed to a different region or fail to be matched to a region because of a regional boundary change or the termination of a postcode that occurred since the FHTB payment was made. Age breakdown is calculated from service numbers provided by the CDPRE team which is matched to date of birth on the JPA system. This methodology has been changed from previous editions where the age given was the date of the report. The age is now given to reflect the age of the recipient of a help to buy loan at the point which their loan was granted

• Both regional and age estimated counts are calculated by combining JPA and DBS source data: the total number of payments made (source: DBS) is multiplied by the percentages by region or age group (source: JPA).

• Data on purchases and extensions are provided by the FHTB team at Defence Business Services (DBS) Military Personnel. A data extract is taken from the JPA system on a quarterly basis, identifying Service Personnel with a crystallized debt under the FHTB scheme. The extract is taken three working days after the end of the quarter and the data as at the last day of the quarter is identified; this ensures most late-reporting is captured. The extract is subject to a series of checks by DBS personnel to ensure that repayment sums and dates fall within expected ranges. It is sent to Analysis Publications quarterly on request. Once the data sets are available, they are then combined and used to calculate the statistics for the reports using Excel and checked for accuracy once completed.

4. Quality Management

The MOD’s quality management process for Official Statistics consists of three elements: (1) Regularly monitoring and assessing quality risk via an annual assessment; (2) Providing a mechanism for reporting and reviewing revisions/corrections to Official Statistics; (3) Ensuring BQRs are publishing alongside reports and are updated regularly.

Following the most recent quality assessment in 2021 the quality risk is assessed as relatively low.

5. Relevance

These statistics are available for public use with the main purpose to hold MOD spending to account and be transparent. The People-Accommodation team regularly receive Parliamentary and Ministerial business regarding FHTB and, more generally, home ownership in the Armed Forces, or the means by which it is being incentivised. The MOD is also keen to promote the scheme and have proactively published a number of case studies and real life examples of people who have used FHTB to buy their own properties and benefitted from the scheme. There has been some coverage in service family federation magazines. Internally, within the MOD, there are a number of stakeholders, such as Defence Resources, single Service Housing Staffs and New Employment Model champions who use figures to monitor expenditure and behavioural change of Armed Forces personnel. We believe these statistics to be meeting user needs as we have received no communication from users to suggest otherwise.

6. Accuracy

Application and payment data are recorded manually by DBS in Excel worksheets. As such, there is the possibility that human error may result in mistakes. However, DBS have established a reconciliation process to double check daily payment registers against the monthly payment register.

Again, the management information received from JPA is only as accurate as the data which has been put into the system and is therefore vulnerable to human error. However, both the JPA Superuser who downloads the payments report from JPA, and the DBS administrator who downloads the FHTB crystallized debt extract from JPA perform a series of error checks.

There are a small number of ‘missing values’ in the regional analysis where a valid postcode is not available for the property purchased. The proportion of ‘missing values’ is reported in the Supplementary Tables. Postcodes which did not match up to a region in the NSPL due to an obvious error or typo have been manually matched e.g. 0X is corrected to OX to give the region South East England.

Figures will be sense-checked once they have been compiled and before they are submitted as final versions.

7. Timeliness and Punctuality

DBS send their FHTB payments data to Analysis Publications as early as possible at the beginning of each month (typically the second working day).

DBS send their FHTB crystallized debt extract to Analysis Publications around the tenth working day after the end of the last quarter.

JPA MI from CDPRE’s area is requested on the first working day after the end of the last quarter and typically received within three working days of the request.

The FHTB Statistics report is typically published on the last Thursday of either July (for Q1), October (for Q2), January (for Q3) or April (for Q4). This therefore allows three weeks or more for the report to be formulated, checked and validated before a final version is ready.

The release date for this publication was pre-announced on the MOD’s Calendar of Upcoming Releases section of GOV.UK.

8. Coherence and Comparability

The report provides statistics on applications and payments by month. Statistics on purchases and extensions are provided as at the latest quarter. Further figures, on region and age, are provided as at the latest biannual point.

The FHTB scheme is an advance of salary scheme operated by the MOD and underpinned by a MOD formulated internal policy. FHTB cannot be compared with Government affordable home ownership schemes, which, albeit similarly named (such as Help to Buy), operate very differently and are owned by other Government Departments.

The only comparison that could be made is to the MOD’s previous home ownership scheme, the Long Service Advance of Pay (LSAP) scheme, although there are some differences in regulations between the two schemes, not to mention the total amount advanced (LSAP was limited to £8,500 and saw reduced applications given rising house prices and the promise of the launch of FHTB), they are therefore not directly comparable.

Regional data is reported using the Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics Level 1 Regions for England:.

Age data is reported using ONS Harmonised Standard 4 age bandings

9. Accessibility and Clarity

The report is published on the GOV.UK website and can be accessed at MOD National and Official Statistics by topic

The report is published in HTML format with the data available in supplementary tables in both accessible excel and ODS formats.

The report has the following structure: summary, introduction, first stage applications, second stage applications, payments and purchases, payments and purchases by rank and service. In the biannual reports this is followed by payments and purchases by age and region.

Each figure in the report is supported by an explanatory paragraph which provides contextual information. Figures are presented in charts in a clear visual format with appropriate alternative text included.

A glossary of key terms is included at the end of the report to aid user understanding of specialist terms.

10. Trade-offs between Output Quality Components

No trade-offs have been identified

11. Cost and Respondent Burden

This publication uses existing administrative data to identify all demographic information.

12. Confidentiality and Security

In producing these statistics, we adhere to the Analysis Directorate: confidentiality policy. We follow principles and protocols laid out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics and comply with the pre-release access arrangements. The MOD statistics pre-release access list is published on the GOV.UK website. Where rounding has been used, totals and sub-totals have been rounded separately and so may not equal the sum of their rounded parts The files are all stored on a secure MOD network, with access to files limited to individuals in Analysis-Publications. All MOD, Civil Service and data protection regulations are adhered to.