Accredited official statistics

Figures to November 2021 (published 27 January 2022)

Updated 24 March 2022

The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.

1. Key points at November 2021

Outputs

• The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 11.6% in the 12 months to November 2021.
• The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs came from cattle and calves, and milk, with each contributing 1.9 percentage points, followed by barley (1.8 percentage points), wheat (1.6 percentage points) and sheep and lambs (1.5 percentage points).
• The only downward contributions came from pigs, forage plants and fresh fruit.
• The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 4.1% in the month to November 2021, compared with a decrease of 0.4% in the month to October 2021.

Inputs

• In the 12 months to November 2021, the price index for agricultural inputs increased by 18.6%.
• Fertilisers and soil improvers made the largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs (9.2 percentage points). The next largest upward contributions came from energy (2.8 percentage points) and compound feedingstuffs (2.1 percentage points).
• Higher prices were reported for all agricultural input categories.
• The price index for agricultural inputs increased by 4.1% in the month to November 2021, compared with an increase of 3.0% in the month to October 2021. This makes November 2021 the seventeenth consecutive month to report price inflation in agricultural inputs.

2. Summary charts for price indices

Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to November 2021 (2015 = 100)

Figure 1 shows the monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs during the previous 6 years (November 2015 to November 2021). The price index for agricultural outputs tends to be more volatile than that for agricultural inputs. Agricultural inputs have seen month-on-month price inflation throughout 2021, with large increases in October and November. For agricultural outputs, November 2021 shows a notable return to price inflation, following seasonal price deflation in recent months, with the price index for agricultural outputs now at its highest recorded value in the series.

Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to November 2021 (2015 = 100)

Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2015. In 2021 (to date), the annual average price index for January to November is 9.3% higher for agricultural outputs and 10.3% higher for agricultural inputs. The year with the largest difference between the agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs price indices remains 2017, with 2021 (to date) showing the second largest difference.

Year	All agricultural outputs	All agricultural inputs
2015	100.0	100.0
2016	99.8	97.4
2017	110.9	102.5
2018	115.0	110.9
2019	113.3	112.6
2020	118.4	112.6
2021	129.4	124.1

3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 3: Contributions to change in the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (11.6%) from November 2020 to November 2021 (2015 = 100)

Figure 3 shows the contributions to the 11.6% change in the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate between November 2020 and November 2021. Eleven of the fifteen outputs categories shown reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from cattle and calves, and milk, followed by barley, wheat, and sheep and lambs, with downward contributions from pigs, forage plants (wheat straw) and fresh fruit.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Cattle and calves	1.9
Milk	1.9
Barley	1.8
Wheat	1.6
Sheep and lambs	1.5
Oilseed rape	1.3
Potatoes	0.9
Poultry	0.5
Fresh vegetables	0.4
Eggs	0.2
Oats	0.1
Sugar beet	0.0
Fresh fruit	-0.1
Forage plants	-0.3
Pigs	-0.4

Figure 4: Contributions to change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (18.6%) from November 2020 to November 2021 (2015 = 100)

Figure 4 shows the contributions to the 18.6% change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate between November 2020 and November 2021. None of the twelve input categories shown reported lower prices. The largest upward contributions came from fertilisers and soil improvers, followed by energy (most significantly motor fuel) and animal feedingstuffs (most significantly compound feedingstuffs).

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Fertilisers and soil improvers	9.2
Energy and lubricants	2.8
Compound feedingstuffs	2.1
Buildings	1.0
Maintenance of buildings	0.9
Straight feedingstuffs	0.8
Materials	0.5
Other goods and services	0.4
Plant protection products	0.4
Maintenance of materials	0.3
Seeds	0.1
Veterinary services	0.0

4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, November 2020 to November 2021

Figure 5 shows the extent to which different agricultural commodity categories have contributed to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated between 6.4% and 12.7% since November 2020, with the main contributors varying for different months. Most recently, the 12-month inflation rate in November 2021 saw upward contributions from all four output categories.

Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, November 2020 to November 2021

Figure 6 shows the extent to which different agricultural inputs have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural inputs has increased substantially since November 2020, reflecting higher prices across all farm input categories. The increasing cost of natural gas prices has severely impacted the fertiliser industry. With domestic production greatly reduced from September 2021, the price of fertilisers has increased considerably. For example, ammonium nitrate was around three times more expensive in November 2021 than in November 2020. Fuel prices also continue to rise as a result of tight global energy supplies and strengthened consumer demand.

More information on the contents of each group can be found in the About these statistics section below.

5. Summary table of price indices

Table 1: Price indices for all agricultural outputs to November 2021 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate

Table 1 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural outputs split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.

Category	November 2020	October 2021	November 2021	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural outputs	120.0	128.6	133.9	11.6	4.1
Crop products	130.0	140.6	148.4	14.1	5.5
Cereals	145.1	164.5	172.9	19.2	5.1
Wheat	153.4	163.9	171.9	12.0	4.9
Barley	127.0	169.0	177.9	40.0	5.2
Oats	124.0	140.4	151.9	22.5	8.2
Potatoes	103.0	138.2	138.2	34.2	0.0
Oilseed rape	137.9	197.1	211.9	53.7	7.6
Sugar beet [footnote 1]	103.7	103.7	103.7	0.0	0.0
Forage plants	249.5	145.6	146.8	-41.2	0.8
Fresh vegetables	117.0	128.7	124.8	6.7	-3.0
Fresh fruit	164.5	137.4	159.7	-2.9	16.3
Animals and animal products	113.9	121.5	125.0	9.8	2.9
Animals	110.2	118.4	121.6	10.3	2.7
Cattle and calves	107.2	121.4	123.4	15.1	1.7
Pigs	116.7	111.1	108.8	-6.8	-2.1
Sheep and lambs	120.1	135.1	152.6	27.1	12.9
Poultry	106.3	110.5	111.2	4.6	0.6
Animal products	119.9	127.7	130.6	9.0	2.3
Milk	125.2	133.3	136.7	9.2	2.5
Eggs [footnote 2]	92.8	100.2	100.2	8.0	0.0

Table 2: Price indices for all agricultural inputs to November 2021 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate

Table 2 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural inputs split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.

Category	November 2020	October 2021	November 2021	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural inputs [footnote 3]	114.3	130.2	135.5	18.6	4.1
Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture	115.7	133.3	139.6	20.7	4.7
Seeds	113.6	116.4	116.4	2.5	0.0
Energy and lubricants	106.6	140.1	146.8	37.7	4.7
Fertilisers and soil improvers	88.8	163.5	208.2	134.3	27.3
Plant protection products	145.3	148.2	151.9	4.5	2.5
Veterinary services	115.7	116.2	116.5	0.7	0.2
Animal feedingstuffs	123.6	134.7	136.0	10.0	0.9
Straight feedingstuffs	141.3	147.7	151.7	7.3	2.7
Compound feedingstuffs	115.6	128.8	128.8	11.4	0.0
Maintenance of materials	114.1	118.5	119.4	4.6	0.8
Maintenance of buildings	113.5	139.3	139.3	22.7	0.0
Other goods and services	111.4	114.9	115.1	3.3	0.2
Goods and services contributing to investment	108.3	116.5	117.5	8.5	0.8
Materials	106.9	110.0	111.1	4.0	1.1
Buildings	111.4	131.4	131.8	18.3	0.2

6. Revisions

This release includes revisions to the following price indices:

• Mushroom prices from 2015 to present have been updated following a change in methodology.

National Statistics status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.

For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:

Email: [email protected]

Public enquiries: (0)84 5601 3034

You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/

About these statistics

Background

The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).

The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.

Data uses

Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.

Methodology

Price data

Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.

In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.

Weights

Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The April 2018 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2015, replacing weights based on 2010.

Contributions

It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.

The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.

The categories shown in Figure 5 and 6 were created by aggregating the following categories:

• Fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, flowers and plants, and potatoes into horticulture.

• Industrial crops, forage plants and other crop products into industrial and other crops.

• Fertilisers and soil improvers, plant protection products and seeds into crop-related costs.

• Animal feedingstuffs and veterinary services into livestock-related costs.

• Maintenance of buildings, maintenance of materials, other goods and services, buildings and materials into other farm costs.

User engagement

As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome.

Contact details

Responsible statistician: Katie Fisher

Email: [email protected]

Public enquiries: (0)20 8565 4419

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Room 201, Foss House, 1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX

1. Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index monthly or yearly is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market. ↩

2. Egg prices are provided quarterly and with delay of several months. Lack of change in this index monthly or yearly is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market. ↩

3. Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs. ↩