Accredited official statistics

Figures to October 2021 (published 23 December 2021)

Updated 24 March 2022

The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.

1. Key points at October 2021

Outputs

• The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 6.4% in the 12 months to October 2021.
• The largest upward contribution to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate came from cattle and calves (1.9 percentage points), with further large upward contributions from milk (1.5 percentage points) and sheep and lambs (1.1 percentage points).
• The only downward contributions came from fresh fruit, pigs, fresh vegetables and forage plants.
• On a monthly basis, the price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 0.5% in October 2021, compared with a fall of 1.7% in September 2021.

Inputs

• In the 12 months to October 2021, the price index for agricultural inputs increased by 14.4%.
• Fertilisers and soil improvers made the largest upward contribution to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (5.8 percentage points). Further large upward contributions came from animal feedingstuffs (2.9 percentage points) and energy (2.3 percentage points).
• Higher prices were reported for all major agricultural input categories.
• On a monthly basis, the price index for agricultural inputs increased by 3.0% in October 2021, compared with an rise of 0.5% in September 2021.

2. Summary charts for price indices

Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to October 2021 (2015 = 100)

Figure 1 shows the monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs from October 2015 to October 2021. The price index for agricultural outputs has tended to be more volatile and higher than that for agricultural inputs. Through 2021 (to date), both agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs reported the same broad trend of price inflation. However, recent months have seen seasonal price deflation in agricultural outputs due to lower prices for most fresh fruit and fresh vegetables, with the price index for agricultural outputs excluding fruit and vegetables increasing by 8.2% in the 12 months to October 2021.

Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to October 2021 (2015 = 100)

Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2015. In 2021 (to date), the annual average price index is 9.0% higher for agricultural outputs and 9.3% higher for agricultural inputs than 2020. The largest difference between the agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs annual average price index remains 2017, with 2021 (to date) showing the second largest difference. Both agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs are at their highest recorded annual value.

Year	All agricultural outputs	All agricultural inputs
2015	100.1	100.1
2016	99.7	97.4
2017	110.9	102.5
2018	115.1	110.8
2019	113.4	112.7
2020	118.4	112.5
2021 (to date)	129.1	123.0

3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 3: Contributions to change in the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (6.4%) from October 2020 to October 2021 (2015 = 100)

Figure 3 shows the contributions to the 6.4% change in the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate between October 2020 and October 2021. Contributions depend on the size of the price change and the weight of the commodity in the all agricultural outputs basket of goods. For example, forage plants reported a large price index change of -36.2% from October 2020 to October 2021. Yet, because of its small weight, its contribution to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate is small (-0.2 percentage points). Similarly, milk reported a moderate price index change of 8.5% during the same period. Yet, because milk has a very large weight, its contribution reflects this (1.5 percentage points).

Ten of the fifteen outputs categories shown reported upward contributions, with the largest upward contributions from cattle and calves, milk, and sheep and lambs. Downward contributions were reported for fresh fruit, pigs, fresh vegetables and forage plants (wheat straw). See accompanying data set for more detail.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Cattle and calves	1.9
Milk	1.5
Sheep and lambs	1.1
Potatoes	1.0
Barley	0.9
Oilseed rape	0.9
Wheat	0.8
Poultry	0.3
Eggs	0.2
Oats	0.0
Sugar beet	0.0
Forage plants	-0.2
Fresh vegetables	-0.4
Pigs	-0.4
Fresh fruit	-1.5

Figure 4: Contributions to change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (14.4%) from October 2020 to October 2021 (2015 = 100)

Figure 4 shows the contributions to the 14.4% change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate between October 2020 and October 2021. Contributions depend on the size of the price change and the weight of the farm input in the all agricultural inputs basket of goods.

None of the twelve input categories shown reported downward contributions. The largest upward contributions came from fertiliser and soil improvers, energy (principally motor fuel) and animal feedingstuffs (principally compound feedingstuffs). See accompanying data set for more detail.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Fertilisers and soil improvers	5.8
Energy and lubricants	2.3
Compound feedingstuffs	2.2
Buildings	1.1
Maintenance of buildings	0.9
Straight feedingstuffs	0.8
Other goods and services	0.5
Materials	0.4
Maintenance of materials	0.2
Plant protection products	0.2
Seeds	0.1
Veterinary services	0.0

4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, October 2020 to October 2021

Figure 5 shows the extent to which different agricultural commodity categories have contributed to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated around 8.0% since October 2020. However, the main contributors to the agricultural outputs inflation rate have varied in each month. Most recently, the 12-month inflation rate in October 2021 saw upward contributions from all agricultural output aggregations except horticulture, with the largest upward contribution from livestock and animal products.

Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, October 2020 to October 2021

Figure 6 shows the extent to which different agricultural input categories have contributed to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural inputs has increased significantly since October 2020, reflecting higher prices across all major farm input categories. High wholesale gas prices in recent months has caused the cost of fertiliser production to rise. With reduced domestic production in September 2021 and October 2021, and increased demand, the price index for fertilisers and soil improvers has increased by 84.1% compared with October 2020.

More information on the contents of each group can be found in the About these statistics section below.

5. Summary table of price indices

Table 1: Price indices for all agricultural outputs to October 2021 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate

Table 1 shows the 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate for all agricultural outputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural outputs split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.

Category	October 2020	September 2021	October 2021	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural outputs	120.9	129.2	128.6	6.4	-0.5
Crop products	135.2	141.1	140.9	4.2	-0.1
Cereals	145.4	155.9	164.5	13.1	5.5
Wheat	152.4	155.5	163.9	7.5	5.4
Barley	124.6	158.6	169.0	35.7	6.5
Oats	123.5	133.1	140.4	13.7	5.4
Potatoes	94.2	138.2	138.2	46.6	0.0
Oilseed rape	135.5	184.3	197.1	45.4	6.9
Sugar beet [footnote 1]	103.7	103.7	103.7	0.0	0.0
Forage plants	228.2	149.7	145.6	-36.2	-2.7
Fresh vegetables	136.0	139.8	129.8	-4.5	-7.1
Fresh fruit	174.4	147.3	137.4	-21.3	-6.7
Animals and animal products	112.5	121.3	121.4	7.9	0.1
Animals	110.0	119.7	118.4	7.7	-1.1
Cattle and calves	106.4	123.5	121.4	14.0	-1.7
Pigs	119.2	117.0	111.1	-6.7	-5.0
Sheep and lambs	114.2	133.2	135.1	18.3	1.4
Poultry	107.7	108.3	110.5	2.7	2.1
Animal products	117.5	123.8	127.3	8.3	2.9
Milk	122.5	128.9	132.9	8.5	3.1
Eggs [footnote 2]	92.8	100.2	100.2	8.0	0.0

Table 2: Price indices for all agricultural inputs to October 2021 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate

Table 2 shows the 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate for all agricultural inputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural inputs split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.

Category	October 2020	September 2021	October 2021	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural inputs [footnote 3]	113.9	126.4	130.2	14.4	3.0
Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture	115.2	128.8	133.3	15.7	3.5
Seeds	113.6	112.6	116.4	2.5	3.4
Energy and lubricants	107.3	130.1	140.1	30.6	7.7
Fertilisers and soil improvers	88.8	140.8	163.5	84.1	16.1
Plant protection products	145.3	147.6	148.2	2.0	0.4
Veterinary services	115.5	116.2	116.2	0.7	0.0
Animal feedingstuffs	122.4	133.1	134.7	10.1	1.2
Straight feedingstuffs	137.2	142.6	147.7	7.6	3.5
Compound feedingstuffs	115.6	128.8	128.8	11.4	0.0
Maintenance of materials	114.2	117.9	118.5	3.7	0.5
Maintenance of buildings	111.9	137.9	139.3	24.5	1.0
Other goods and services	111.0	113.8	114.9	3.5	0.9
Goods and services contributing to investment	107.9	116.0	116.6	8.1	0.6
Materials	106.8	109.6	110.0	2.9	0.3
Buildings	110.4	130.4	131.7	19.3	1.0

6. Revisions

This release includes revisions to the following price indices:

• Veterinarians’ fees.
• Buildings.

National Statistics status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.

For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:

Email: [email protected]

Public enquiries: (0)84 5601 3034

You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/

About these statistics

Background

The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).

The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.

Data uses

Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.

Methodology

Price data

Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.

In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.

Weights

Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The April 2018 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2015, replacing weights based on 2010.

Contributions

It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.

The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.

A detailed breakdown of the contributions presented can be found in the accompanying data set (Open Document Spreadsheet).

More information on the contributions methodology, and the aggregated categories shown in Figure 5 and 6, are available on request.

User engagement

As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome.

Contact details

Responsible statistician: Si Maxwell

Email: [email protected]

Public enquiries: (0)20 8026 4098

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Room 201, Foss House, 1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX

1. Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index monthly or yearly is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market. ↩

2. Egg prices are provided quarterly and with delay of several months. Lack of change in this index monthly or yearly is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market. ↩

3. Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs. ↩