Accredited official statistics

Figures to September 2021 (published 25 November 2021)

Updated 24 March 2022

The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.

1. 1. Key points at September 2021

1.1 Outputs

• The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 7.8% in the 12 months to September 2021.
• The largest upward contribution to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate came from milk (1.8 percentage points), with further large upward contributions from cattle and calves (1.5 percentage points) and barley (1.2 percentage points).
• The only downward contributions came from fresh fruit, pigs and forage plants.
• In contrast, the price index for agricultural outputs excluding fruit and vegetables increased by 10.3% in the 12 months to September 2021.
• On a monthly basis, the price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 1.6% in September 2021.

1.2 Inputs

• In the 12 months to September 2021, the price index for agricultural inputs increased by 11.9%.
• Fertilisers and soil improvers made the largest upward contribution to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (4 percentage points). Further large upward contributions came from animal feedingstuffs (3.6 percentage points) and energy (1.5 percentage points).
• Higher prices were reported across all major agricultural input categories except for seeds.
• The price index for agricultural inputs increased by 0.5% on the month in September 2021, the fifteenth consecutive month to report an increase in agricultural inputs.

2. 2. Summary charts for price indices

Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to September 2021 (2015 = 100)

Figure 1 shows the monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs during the previous six years. The price index for agricultural outputs has tended to be more volatile than that for agricultural inputs. However, both show the same broad trend of increasing prices through 2021.

Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to September 2021 (2015 = 100)

Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs since 2015. Compared with 2020, the annual average price index for 2021 (to date) is 9.0% higher for agricultural outputs and 8.6% higher for agricultural inputs. The year with the largest difference between agricultural outputs and inputs remains 2017, with 2021 (to date) showing the second largest difference. Both price index series are currently at their highest recorded value.

Year	All agricultural outputs	All agricultural inputs
2015	100.0	100.0
2016	99.8	97.4
2017	110.9	102.5
2018	115.1	110.9
2019	113.4	112.6
2020	118.5	112.6
2021	129.2	122.2

3. 3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 3: Contributions to change in the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (7.8%) from September 2020 to September 2021 (2015 = 100)

Figure 3 shows the contributions to the 7.8% change in the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate between September 2020 and September 2021. Eleven of the sixteen output categories shown reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from milk, cattle and calves, and barley, with small downward contributions from fresh fruit, pigs and forage plants (wheat straw). Note the sum of the contributions may not equal the 12-month inflation rate due to rounding.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Milk	1.8
Cattle and calves	1.5
Barley	1.2
Oilseed rape	0.9
Potatoes	0.8
Sheep and lambs	0.8
Wheat	0.8
Poultry	0.3
Eggs	0.2
Oats	0.0
Fresh vegetables	0.0
Sugar beet	0.0
Flowers and plants	0.0
Forage plants	-0.1
Pigs	-0.2
Fresh fruit	-0.3

Figure 4: Contributions to change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (11.9%) from September 2020 to September 2021 (2015 = 100)

Figure 4 shows the contributions to the 11.9% change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate between September 2020 and September 2021. Only one of the twelve input categories shown reported lower prices. The largest upward contributions came from fertiliser and soil improvers, animal feedingstuffs (straight and compound) and energy (most significantly motor fuels). Note the sum of the contributions may not equal the 12-month inflation rate due to rounding.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Fertilisers and soil improvers	4.0
Compound feedingstuffs	2.6
Energy and lubricants	1.5
Straight feedingstuffs	1.0
Buildings	1.0
Maintenance of buildings	0.9
Other goods and services	0.3
Materials	0.3
Maintenance of materials	0.2
Plant protection products	0.0
Veterinary services	0.0
Seeds	-0.1

4. 4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, September 2020 to September 2021

Figure 5 shows the extent to which different agricultural commodity categories have contributed to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated around 10.0% since September 2020. However, the main contributors to the agricultural outputs inflation rate have varied in each month. The 12-month inflation rate in September 2021, for example, saw upward contributions from all categories, most notably animals, animal products and cereals.

Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, September 2020 to September 2021

Figure 6 shows the extent to which different agricultural inputs have contributed to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural inputs has increased significantly since September 2020, reflecting higher prices across all major farm input categories.

5. 5. Summary table of price indices

Table 1: Price indices for all agricultural outputs to September 2021 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate

Table 1 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural outputs split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.

Category	September 2020	August 2021	September 2021	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural outputs	120.0	131.5	129.4	7.8	-1.6
Crop products	131.0	143.4	141.1	7.7	-1.6
Cereals	137.4	149.9	155.9	13.5	4.0
Wheat	145.2	151.5	155.5	7.2	2.7
Barley	120.8	149.5	158.6	31.3	6.1
Oats	122.0	125.5	133.1	9.1	6.1
Potatoes	106.0	138.2	138.2	30.4	0.0
Oilseed rape	133.0	174.0	184.3	38.6	5.9
Sugar beet[footnote ]	103.7	103.7	103.7	0.0	0.0
Forage plants	190.1	205.5	149.7	-21.2	-27.1
Fresh vegetables	139.6	135.0	139.8	0.1	3.6
Fresh fruit	154.2	152.4	147.3	-4.5	-3.4
Animals and animal products	112.6	121.9	121.6	7.9	-0.3
Animals	111.8	121.3	119.8	7.2	-1.2
Cattle and calves	109.2	124.4	123.5	13.1	-0.8
Pigs	121.6	121.0	117.0	-3.7	-3.3
Sheep and lambs	119.1	137.3	133.2	11.8	-3.0
Poultry	105.8	108.5	108.7	2.8	0.2
Animal products	113.9	122.7	124.3	9.1	1.3
Milk	118.5	127.6	129.5	9.3	1.4
Eggs[footnote ]	92.4	100.2	100.2	8.5	0.0

Table 2: Price indices for all agricultural inputs to September 2021 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate

Table 2 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural inputs split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.

Category	September 2020	August 2021	September 2021	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural inputs[footnote ]	113.0	125.8	126.4	11.9	0.5
All goods and services currently consumed in agriculture	114.1	128.1	128.8	12.8	0.5
Seeds	113.9	112.6	112.6	-1.1	0.0
Energy and lubricants	108.9	130.1	130.1	19.4	0.0
Fertilisers and soil improvers	90.4	136.3	140.8	55.8	3.3
Plant protection products	146.7	147.9	147.6	0.6	-0.2
Veterinary services	115.7	116.2	116.2	0.4	0.0
Straight feedingstuffs	128.7	140.9	142.6	10.9	1.2
Compound feedingstuffs	113.1	128.8	128.8	13.9	0.0
Maintenance of materials	113.7	117.8	117.9	3.7	0.0
Maintenance of buildings	111.6	137.8	137.9	23.6	0.1
Other goods and services	111.0	113.8	113.8	2.5	0.0
Goods and services contributing to investment	108.0	115.6	116.0	7.4	0.3
Materials	106.7	109.3	109.6	2.7	0.3
Buildings	110.9	130.0	130.4	17.6	0.4

6. 6. Revisions

This release includes revisions to the following price indices:

• Annual seed potato prices have been revised for 2019 and 2020 (carried forward to 2021).
• Quarterly egg prices have been updated for Q3 2021.
• Compound animal feed prices have been updated for Q3 2021.

7. National Statistics status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.

For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:

Email: [email protected]

Public enquiries: (0)84 5601 3034

You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/

8. About these statistics

8.1 Background

The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).

The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.

8.2 Data uses

Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.

8.3 Methodology

Price data

Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.

In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.

Weights

Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The April 2018 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2015, replacing weights based on 2010.

Contributions

It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight in the base year.

The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.

More information on the contributions methodology, and the aggregated categories shown in Figure 5 and 6, are available on request.

8.4 User engagement

As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome.

9. Contact details

Responsible statistician: Si Maxwell

Email: [email protected]

Public enquiries: (0)34 5933 5577

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Room 201, Foss House, 1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX

1. Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index monthly or yearly is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market. ↩

2. Egg prices are provided quarterly and with delay of several months. Lack of change in this index monthly or yearly is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market. ↩

3. Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs. ↩