Accredited official statistics

Figures to January 2022 (published 24 March 2022)

Updated 23 March 2023

The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.

Note: This statistical notice has been updated from the version published at 9.30am on 24th March 2022 to correct an administrative error.

1. Key points at January 2022

Outputs

• The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 11.7% in the 12 months to January 2022.
• The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs came from milk at 3.7 percentage points, followed by wheat (2.0 percentage points) and oilseed rape (1.5 percentage points).
• The largest downward contributions came from forage plants (-0.4 percentage points) and pigs (-0.2 percentage points).
• The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 0.1% in the month to January 2022, compared with an increase of 3.1% in the month to December 2021.

Inputs

• In the 12 months to January 2022, the price index for agricultural inputs increased by 18.6%.
• The largest contributors to the 18.6% change in the price index were fertilisers and soil improvers (8.4 percentage points), followed by energy and lubricants (2.4 percentage points) and compound feedingstuffs (1.9 percentage points).
• Higher prices were recorded for all agricultural inputs with the minor exception of seeds (-0.05 percentage points).
• The price index for agricultural inputs increased by 2.0% in the month to January 2022, compared with an increase of 0.3% in the month to December 2021. This makes January 2022 the nineteenth consecutive month to report price inflation in agricultural inputs.

2. Summary charts for price indices

Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to January 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 1 shows the monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs during the previous 6 years (January 2016 to January 2022). The price index for agricultural outputs tends to be more volatile than that for agricultural inputs. Agricultural inputs have seen month-on-month price inflation throughout 2021 and into 2022, with large increases in October and November 2021. For agricultural outputs, January 2022 shows a slight decrease in the price index, following large increases in November and December 2021.

Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs (2015 = 100)

Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2015. In 2021, the annual average price index was 9.6% higher for agricultural outputs and 11.3% higher for agricultural inputs. The year with the largest difference between the agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs remains 2017, with 2020 showing the second largest difference.

Year	All agricultural outputs	All agricultural inputs
2015	100.0	100.0
2016	99.6	97.4
2017	110.7	102.5
2018	115.4	110.9
2019	114.2	112.6
2020	119.2	112.6
2021	130.7	125.3

3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 3: Contributions to change in the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (11.7%) from January 2021 to January 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 3 shows the contributions to the 11.7% change in the agricultural outputs’ 12-month inflation rate between January 2021 and January 2022. Ten of the fifteen outputs categories shown reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from milk, wheat, oilseed rape, and cattle and calves, with downward contributions from forage plants, pigs, fresh vegetables and eggs.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Milk	3.7
Wheat	2.0
Oilseed rape	1.5
Cattle and calves	1.4
Barley	1.2
Fresh fruit	0.8
Sheep and lambs	0.7
Potatoes	0.5
Oats	0.2
Poultry	0.2
Eggs	0.0
Sugar beet	0.0
Fresh vegetables	-0.1
Pigs	-0.2
Forage plants	-0.4

Figure 4: Contributions to change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (18.6%) from January 2021 to January 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 4 shows the contributions to the 18.6% change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate between January 2021 and January 2022. Only one of the twelve input categories shown (seeds) reported a lower price. The largest upward contributions came from fertiliser and soil improvers, energy (most significantly motor fuel) and compound feedingstuffs.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Fertilisers and soil improvers	8.4
Energy and lubricants	2.4
Compound feedingstuffs	1.9
Materials	1.7
Buildings	1.0
Maintenance of buildings	0.8
Plant protection products	0.8
Straight feedingstuffs	0.8
Maintenance of materials	0.3
Veterinary services	0.0
Seeds	-0.0

4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, January 2021 to January 2022

Figure 5 shows the extent to which different agricultural commodity categories have contributed to the agricultural outputs’ 12-month inflation rate over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated between 6.1% and 13.4% since January 2021. However, the main contributors to the agricultural outputs’ inflation rate have varied in each month. Most recently, the 12-month inflation rate in January 2022 saw upward contributions from all four output categories.

Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, January 2021 to January 2022

Figure 6 shows the extent to which different agricultural inputs have contributed to the agricultural inputs’ 12-month inflation rate over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural inputs has increased significantly since January 2021, reflecting higher prices across all major farm input categories. The higher price for wholesale energy has significantly affected the fertiliser industry. With domestic production greatly reduced in September 2021 and October 2021, the price for fertilisers has increased considerably. Compared with October 2020, ammonium nitrate prices, for example, have more than tripled.

More information on the contents of each group can be found in the About these statistics section below.

5. Summary table of price indices

Table 1: Price indices for all agricultural outputs to January 2022 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate

Table 1 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural outputs split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.

Category	January 2021	December 2021	January 2022	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural outputs	124.1	138.7	138.6	11.7	-0.1
Crop products	138.2	157.0	159.9	15.7	1.8
Cereals	158.6	184.8	189.3	19.4	2.4
Wheat	165.5	185.2	189.0	14.2	2.0
Barley	137.4	187.8	195.5	42.4	4.1
Oats	124.2	158.9	165.7	33.4	4.3
Potatoes	118.5	138.2	138.2	16.7	0.0
Oilseed rape	143.1	224.7	232.7	62.6	3.6
Sugar beet [footnote 1]	103.7	103.7	103.7	0.0	0.0
Forage plants	284.7	146.8	146.2	-48.7	-0.4
Fresh vegetables	123.9	125.4	121.6	-1.8	-3.0
Fresh fruit	175.8	207.0	246.8	40.4	19.2
Animals and animal products	117.0	128.6	127.9	9.4	-0.5
Animals	116.3	125.0	122.4	5.2	-2.1
Cattle and calves	111.9	125.6	122.8	9.7	-2.3
Pigs	107.9	106.8	104.2	-3.4	-2.5
Sheep and lambs	141.5	161.5	155.1	9.6	-3.9
Poultry	114.3	115.0	115.8	1.3	0.6
Animal products	118.2	134.3	137.9	16.7	2.7
Milk	121.5	140.9	144.8	19.2	2.8
Eggs [footnote 2]	98.8	97.8	97.8	-0.9	0.0

Table 2: Price indices for all agricultural inputs to January 2022 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate

Table 2 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural inputs split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.

Category	January 2021	December 2021	January 2022	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural inputs [footnote 3]	117.5	136.7	139.4	18.6	2.0
Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture	119.4	140.7	142.3	19.2	1.2
Seeds	117.7	116.4	116.4	-1.1	0.0
Energy and lubricants	111.4	146.2	145.9	31.0	-0.2
Fertilisers and soil improvers	93.3	199.8	205.2	119.8	2.7
Plant protection products	145.4	154.5	160.3	10.3	3.8
Veterinary services	115.7	116.9	116.8	0.9	-0.1
Animal feedingstuffs	130.5	140.8	142.2	9.0	1.0
Straight feedingstuffs	151.8	158.2	162.6	7.1	2.8
Compound feedingstuffs	120.8	132.9	132.9	10.0	0.0
Maintenance of materials	115.0	119.3	121.2	5.4	1.6
Maintenance of buildings	116.5	139.8	141.0	21.0	0.9
Other goods and services	111.6	116.2	116.2	4.1	0.0
Goods and services contributing to investment	109.1	118.9	126.5	15.9	6.4
Materials	107.2	113.0	122.8	14.6	8.7
Buildings	113.6	132.3	134.9	18.8	2.0

6. Revisions

This release includes revisions to the following price indices:

• Minor revisions have been made to the broiler chickens output index from January 2015 to present. This follows the introduction of improvements to the methodology by which the average broiler chicken price is calculated.

National Statistics status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.

For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:

Email: [email protected]

Public enquiries: (0)84 5601 3034

You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/

About these statistics

Background

The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).

The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.

Data uses

Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.

Methodology

Price data

Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.

In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.

Weights

Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The April 2018 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2015, replacing weights based on 2010.

Contributions

It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.

The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.

The categories shown in Figure 5 and 6 were created by aggregating the following categories:

• Fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, flowers and plants, and potatoes into horticulture.

• Industrial crops, forage plants and other crop products into industrial and other crops.

• Fertilisers and soil improvers, plant protection products and seeds into crop-related costs.

• Animal feedingstuffs and veterinary services into livestock-related costs.

• Maintenance of buildings, maintenance of materials, other goods and services, buildings and materials into other farm costs.

User engagement

As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome.

Contact details

Responsible statistician: Katie Fisher

Email: [email protected]

Public enquiries: (0)20 8565 4419

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Room 201, Foss House, 1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX

1. Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of price changes within this market. ↩

2. Egg prices are provided quarterly and with a delay of several months. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market. ↩

3. Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs. ↩