Figures to July 2022 (published 22 September 2022)
Updated 23 March 2023
© Crown copyright 2023
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The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.
1. Key points at July 2022
Outputs
- The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 24.0% in the 12 months to July 2022.
- The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs was milk (7.7 percentage points), followed by oilseed rape (4.4 percentage points), and wheat (3.8 percentage points).
- One downward contribution was recorded from forage plants (-0.3 percentage points).
- On a monthly basis, the price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 1.0% in July 2022.
Inputs
- The price index for agricultural inputs increased by 32.6% in the 12 months to July 2022.
- The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs came from fertilisers and soil improvers (11.6 percentage points), followed by compound feedingstuffs (5.9 percentage points), and energy and lubricants (5.7 percentage points).
- No downward contributions were recorded for July 2022.
- On a monthly basis, the price index for agricultural inputs increased by 1.0% in July 2022.
2. Summary charts for price indices
Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to July 2022 (2015 = 100)
Figure 1 shows the monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs during the previous 6 years (July 2016 to July 2022). Overall, the price index for agricultural outputs has tended to be more volatile than that for agricultural inputs. Agricultural inputs have seen month-on-month price inflation throughout 2021 and so far in 2022, with particularly large increases observed between October 2021 and June 2022. The price index for agricultural outputs decreased for the first time in six months in July 2022. Meanwhile, the price index for agricultural inputs continues to rise, reaching its highest recorded value in July 2022.
Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to July 2022 (2015 = 100)
Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2015. In 2022, the annual average price index was 15.9% higher for agricultural outputs and 23.9% higher for agricultural inputs. The year with the largest difference between the agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs remains 2017, with 2020 showing the second largest difference.
| Year | All agricultural outputs | All agricultural inputs |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2016 | 99.6 | 97.4 |
| 2017 | 110.7 | 102.5 |
| 2018 | 115.4 | 110.9 |
| 2019 | 114.2 | 112.6 |
| 2020 | 119.2 | 112.6 |
| 2021 | 131.2 | 125.3 |
| 2022 | 152.1 | 155.2 |
3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate
Figure 3: Contributions to change in the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (24.0%) from July 2021 to July 2022 (2015 = 100)
Figure 3 shows the contributions to the 24.0% change in the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate between July 2021 and July 2022. Twelve of the sixteen outputs categories shown reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from milk, oilseed rape, wheat, and barley, with a downward contribution from forage plants.
| Category | Contribution (percentage points) |
|---|---|
| Milk | 7.7 |
| Oilseed rape | 4.4 |
| Wheat | 3.8 |
| Barley | 3.1 |
| Cattle and calves | 1.4 |
| Pigs | 1.0 |
| Fresh fruit | 0.8 |
| Sheep and lambs | 0.6 |
| Fresh vegetables | 0.5 |
| Poultry | 0.4 |
| Eggs | 0.2 |
| Oats | 0.1 |
| Sugar beet | 0.0 |
| Plants and flowers | 0.0 |
| Potatoes | 0.0 |
| Forage plants | -0.3 |
Figure 4: Contributions to change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (32.6%) from July 2021 to July 2022 (2015 = 100)
Figure 4 shows the contributions to the 32.6% change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate between July 2021 and July 2022. The largest upward contributions came from fertilisers and soil improvers, compound feedingstuffs, energy and lubricants, and straight feedingstuffs. No downward contributions were recorded for July 2022.
| Category | Contribution (percentage points) |
|---|---|
| Fertilisers and soil improvers | 11.6 |
| Compound feedingstuffs | 5.9 |
| Energy and lubricants | 5.7 |
| Straight feedingstuffs | 2.9 |
| Materials | 1.9 |
| Buildings | 1.3 |
| Maintenance of buildings | 1.0 |
| Other goods and services | 1.0 |
| Plant protection products | 0.6 |
| Seeds | 0.4 |
| Maintenance of materials | 0.3 |
| Veterinary services | 0.0 |
4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate
Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, July 2021 to July 2022
Figure 5 shows the extent to which different agricultural commodity categories have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated between 6.4% and 24.9% since July 2021, with the main contributors varying for different months. Most recently, the 12-month inflation rate in July 2022 saw upward contributions from all four output categories. Livestock and animal products made the largest contribution, largely due to the elevated feed prices seen this year. This was the second highest observed value for the 12-month inflation rate since July 2021.
Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, July 2021 to July 2022
Figure 6 shows the extent to which different agricultural inputs have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs over the last year. The increasing cost of natural gas prices has severely impacted the fertiliser industry. With domestic production greatly reduced from September 2021, the price of fertilisers has increased considerably. For example, ammonium nitrate was over two-and-a-half times more expensive in July 2022 than in July 2021. Fuel prices have also risen substantially since July 2021, as a result of tight global energy supplies and strengthened consumer demand as Covid-19 restrictions have eased worldwide.
More information on the contents of each group can be found in the About these statistics section below.
5. Summary table of price indices
Table 1: Price indices for all agricultural outputs to July 2022 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate(a)(b)
Table 1 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural outputs split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.
| Category | July 2021 | June 2022 | July 2022 | 12-month rate (%) | 1-month rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All agricultural outputs | 132.1 | 165.5 | 163.8 | 24.0 | -1.0 |
| Crop products | 145.4 | 189.8 | 183.4 | 26.2 | -3.3 |
| Cereals | 154.9 | 258.2 | 236.7 | 52.8 | -8.3 |
| Wheat | 167.5 | 261.3 | 248.4 | 48.3 | -4.9 |
| Barley | 140.2 | 244.9 | 224.0 | 59.7 | -8.5 |
| Oats | 125.2 | 242.9 | 189.9 | 51.7 | -21.8 |
| Potatoes | 138.2 | 138.2 | 138.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oilseed rape | 173.0 | 314.2 | 256.5 | 48.2 | -18.4 |
| Sugar beet | 104.8 | 104.8 | 104.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Forage plants | 306.0 | 143.8 | 143.8 | -53.0 | 0.0 |
| Fresh vegetables | 139.0 | 142.5 | 146.5 | 5.4 | 2.8 |
| Fresh fruit | 141.3 | 155.6 | 158.9 | 12.4 | 2.1 |
| Animals and animal products | 122.0 | 148.4 | 148.8 | 22.0 | 0.3 |
| Animals | 123.2 | 137.3 | 136.1 | 10.5 | -0.9 |
| Cattle and calves | 122.5 | 136.2 | 136.1 | 11.1 | -0.1 |
| Pigs | 121.6 | 140.7 | 146.8 | 20.7 | 4.3 |
| Sheep and lambs | 143.5 | 173.5 | 158.4 | 10.3 | -8.7 |
| Poultry | 113.8 | 117.7 | 118.4 | 4.0 | 0.6 |
| Animal products | 119.8 | 164.7 | 172.3 | 43.8 | 4.6 |
| Milk | 124.5 | 176.1 | 186.1 | 49.5 | 5.7 |
| Eggs | 99.6 | 106.7 | 106.7 | 7.1 | 0.0 |
(a) Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of price changes within this market.
(b) Egg prices are provided quarterly and with a delay of several months. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market.
Table 2: Price indices for all agricultural inputs to July 2022 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate(a)
Table 2 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural inputs split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.
| Category | July 2021 | June 2022 | July 2022 | 12-month rate (%) | 1-month rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All agricultural inputs | 125.1 | 164.2 | 165.8 | 32.6 | 1.0 |
| Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture | 127.5 | 170.8 | 172.6 | 35.3 | 1.0 |
| Seeds | 112.6 | 122.2 | 122.2 | 8.5 | 0.0 |
| Energy and lubricants | 128.5 | 209.4 | 217.3 | 69.1 | 3.8 |
| Fertilisers and soil improvers | 132.2 | 280.3 | 295.3 | 123.3 | 5.3 |
| Plant protection products | 146.5 | 158.9 | 158.5 | 8.2 | -0.2 |
| Veterinary services | 116.0 | 117.6 | 117.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Animal feedingstuffs | 134.1 | 177.2 | 175.1 | 30.6 | -1.2 |
| Straight feedingstuffs | 145.6 | 195.7 | 188.8 | 29.7 | -3.5 |
| Compound feedingstuffs | 128.8 | 168.8 | 168.8 | 31.0 | 0.0 |
| Maintenance of materials | 118.2 | 124.7 | 125.0 | 5.7 | 0.2 |
| Maintenance of buildings | 130.4 | 160.8 | 161.8 | 24.1 | 0.6 |
| Other goods and services | 113.5 | 122.3 | 122.4 | 7.8 | 0.1 |
| Goods and services contributing to investment | 114.1 | 134.9 | 135.9 | 19.1 | 0.8 |
| Materials | 108.4 | 126.5 | 127.0 | 17.2 | 0.4 |
| Buildings | 127.1 | 154.0 | 156.1 | 22.8 | 1.4 |
(a) Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs.
National Statistics status
National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.
These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.
For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:
Email: [email protected]
Public enquiries: (0)84 5601 3034
You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/
About these statistics
Background
The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk, and eggs).
The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.
Data uses
Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.
Methodology
Price data
Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.
In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.
Weights
Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The April 2018 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2015, replacing weights based on 2010.
Contributions
It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.
The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.
The categories shown in Figures 5 and 6 were created by aggregating the following categories:
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Fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, flowers and plants, and potatoes into horticulture.
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Industrial crops, forage plants and other crop products into industrial and other crops.
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Fertilisers and soil improvers, plant protection products and seeds into crop-related costs.
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Animal feedingstuffs and veterinary services into livestock-related costs.
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Maintenance of buildings, maintenance of materials, other goods and services, buildings and materials into other farm costs.
User engagement
As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome. Feedback can be provided via this survey as well as by phone or email.
Contact details
Responsible statistician: Matthew Lunn
Email: [email protected]
Public enquiries: (0)20 3025 7160
Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Room 201, Foss House, 1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX