Accredited official statistics

Figures to October 2022 (published 15 December 2022)

Updated 23 March 2023

The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.

1. Key points at October 2022

Outputs

• The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 22.3% in the 12 months to October 2022.
• The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs was milk (9.8 percentage points), followed by wheat (4.4 percentage points), and fresh vegetables (2.4 percentage points).
• The largest downward contribution was poultry (-0.3 percentage points). Smaller downward contributions were also observed from sheep and lambs (-0.1 percentage points), and forage plants (< -0.1 percentage points).
• The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 0.9% in the month to October 2022, compared with a decrease of 0.7% in the month to September 2022.

Inputs

• The price index for agricultural inputs increased by 28.3% in the 12 months to October 2022.
• The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs came from fertilisers and soil improvers (9.2 percentage points), followed by compound feedingstuffs (6.3 percentage points), and energy and lubricants (4.5 percentage points).
• No downward contributions were recorded to the 12-month inflation rate for October 2022.
• The price index for agricultural inputs increased by 0.9% in the month to October 2022, compared with an increase of 0.3% in the month to September 2022.

2. Summary charts for price indices

Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to October 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 1 shows the monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs during the previous 6 years (October 2016 to October 2022). Overall, the price index for agricultural outputs tends to be more volatile than that for agricultural inputs. Agricultural inputs have seen near-constant month-on-month inflation so far in 2022, with deflation only having occurred in August 2022. For agricultural outputs, October 2022 is the fourth consecutive month for which prices have decreased, following strong inflation in the first half of 2022. In recent months, a divergence between the price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs has started to form.

Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to October 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2015. In 2022 (to date), the annual average price index is 17.7% higher for agricultural outputs and 26.8% higher for agricultural inputs. The year with the largest difference between the agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs remains 2017, with 2020 showing the second largest difference.

Year	All agricultural outputs	All agricultural inputs
2015	100.0	100.0
2016	99.6	97.4
2017	110.7	102.5
2018	115.4	110.9
2019	114.2	112.6
2020	119.2	112.6
2021	131.3	125.5
2022	154.5	159.0

3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 3: Contributions to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (+22.3%) observed between October 2021 and October 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 3 shows the contributions to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate of +22.3% observed between October 2021 and October 2022. Ten of the sixteen outputs categories shown reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from milk, wheat, fresh vegetables, and pigs, with downward contributions from poultry, sheep and lambs, and forage plants.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Milk	9.8
Wheat	4.4
Fresh vegetables	2.4
Pigs	2.0
Cattle and calves	1.3
Barley	1.1
Fresh fruit	0.6
Eggs	0.2
Oats	0.1
Oilseed rape	0.1
Sugar beet	0.0
Plants and flowers	0.0
Potatoes	0.0
Forage plants	0.0
Sheep and lambs	-0.1
Poultry	-0.3

Figure 4: Contributions to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (+28.3%) observed between October 2021 and October 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 4 shows the contributions to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate of +28.3% observed between October 2021 and October 2022. The largest upward contributions came from fertilisers and soil improvers, compound feedingstuffs, energy and lubricants, and straight feedingstuffs. No downward contributions were recorded for October 2022.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Fertilisers and soil improvers	9.2
Compound feedingstuffs	6.3
Energy and lubricants	4.5
Straight feedingstuffs	2.7
Materials	1.7
Other goods and services	1.1
Buildings	1.0
Plant protection products	0.6
Maintenance of buildings	0.6
Maintenance of materials	0.4
Seeds	0.2
Veterinary services	0.0

4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, October 2021 to October 2022

Figure 5 shows the extent to which different agricultural commodity categories have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated between 6.4% and 25.3% since April 2021, with the main contributors varying for different months. Most recently, the 12-month inflation rate in October 2022 saw upward contributions from all four output categories, the largest of which being from livestock and animal products.

Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, October 2021 to October 2022

Figure 6 shows the extent to which different agricultural inputs have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural inputs slowed by 3.4 percentage points compared to the 12 months to September 2022. Tight global grain supplies have led to significant increases in animal feed prices, with the prices of straight feedingstuffs increasing by 28% in the 12 months to October 2022. Energy prices have also risen substantially in the past year as a result of tight global supplies and strengthened consumer demand as economies have emerged from the pandemic. The energy price rises have significantly impacted the fertiliser industry. For example, the price of ammonium nitrate in October 2022 was over three times as high as in April 2021.

More information on the contents of each group can be found in the About these statistics section below.

5. Summary table of price indices

Table 1: Price indices for all agricultural outputs to October 2022 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate^(a)(b)

Table 1 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural outputs split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.

Category	October 2021	September 2022	October 2022	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural outputs	129.5	159.8	158.3	22.3	-0.9
Crop products	141.8	171.5	172.9	21.9	0.8
Cereals	164.5	220.1	228.8	39.1	3.9
Wheat	163.9	222.0	230.8	40.9	4.0
Barley	169.0	217.6	224.9	33.0	3.3
Oats	140.4	197.5	203.3	44.8	2.9
Potatoes	138.2	138.2	138.2	0.0	0.0
Oilseed rape	197.1	210.3	205.3	4.2	-2.4
Sugar beet	104.8	104.8	104.8	0.0	0.0
Forage plants	145.6	131.4	129.2	-11.3	-1.7
Fresh vegetables	129.3	166.2	167.8	29.8	0.9
Fresh fruit	137.4	161.4	154.2	12.3	-4.4
Animals and animal products	122.2	151.9	149.8	22.5	-1.4
Animals	119.6	131.3	129.6	8.4	-1.3
Cattle and calves	121.4	134.5	132.6	9.3	-1.4
Pigs	111.1	152.4	152.3	37.0	-0.1
Sheep and lambs	135.1	135.5	134.0	-0.9	-1.1
Poultry	114.3	113.0	111.1	-2.8	-1.7
Animal products	127.6	184.0	189.8	48.7	3.1
Milk	133.3	199.2	205.9	54.4	3.4
Eggs	97.8	106.7	106.8	9.2	0.1

^(a) Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of price changes within this market.

^(b) Egg prices are provided quarterly and with a delay of several months. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market.

Table 2: Price indices for all agricultural inputs to October 2022 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate^(a)

Table 2 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural inputs split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.

Category	October 2021	September 2022	October 2022	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural inputs	131.1	166.6	168.2	28.3	0.9
Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture	134.4	173.5	175.4	30.5	1.1
Seeds	119.3	123.8	123.8	3.7	0.0
Energy and lubricants	140.1	201.8	213.4	52.4	5.7
Fertilisers and soil improvers	163.5	299.1	299.0	82.9	0.0
Plant protection products	148.2	162.0	161.8	9.2	-0.2
Veterinary services	116.3	118.2	118.2	1.7	0.0
Animal feedingstuffs	137.5	179.9	180.7	31.4	0.5
Straight feedingstuffs	147.7	185.9	188.6	27.7	1.5
Compound feedingstuffs	132.9	177.1	177.1	33.2	0.0
Maintenance of materials	118.1	125.9	127.1	7.6	0.9
Maintenance of buildings	138.4	160.2	159.8	15.5	-0.2
Other goods and services	115.0	123.0	125.1	8.8	1.7
Goods and services contributing to investment	116.4	136.1	136.2	17.0	0.1
Materials	110.0	127.5	127.8	16.1	0.2
Buildings	131.1	155.4	155.5	18.6	0.1

^(a) Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs.

National Statistics status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.

For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:

Email: [email protected]

Public enquiries: (0)84 5601 3034

You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/

About these statistics

Background

The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).

The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.

Data uses

Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.

Methodology

Price data

Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.

In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.

Weights

Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The April 2018 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2015, replacing weights based on 2010.

Contributions

It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.

The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.

The categories shown in Figure 5 and 6 were created by aggregating the following categories:

• Fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, flowers and plants, and potatoes into horticulture.

• Industrial crops, forage plants and other crop products into industrial and other crops.

• Fertilisers and soil improvers, plant protection products and seeds into crop-related costs.

• Animal feedingstuffs and veterinary services into livestock-related costs.

• Maintenance of buildings, maintenance of materials, other goods and services, buildings and materials into other farm costs.

User engagement

As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome. Feedback can be provided via this survey as well as by phone or email.

Media queries

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Contact details

Responsible statistician: Matthew Lunn

Email: [email protected]

Public enquiries: (0)20 3025 7160

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Room 201, Foss House, 1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX