Accredited official statistics

Figures to September 2022 (published 24 November 2022)

Updated 23 March 2023

The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.

1. Key points at September 2022

Outputs

• The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 22.7% in the 12 months to September 2022.
• The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs was milk (10.5 percentage points), followed by wheat (4.5 percentage points), and barley and fresh vegetables (1.7 percentage points each).
• The largest downward contribution came from poultry (-0.1 percentage points). A smaller downward contribution was recorded from forage plants (< -0.1 percentage points).
• The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 0.7% in the month to September 2022, compared with a decrease of 2.3% in the month to August 2022.

Inputs

• In the 12 months to September 2022, the price index for agricultural inputs increased by 31.7%.
• The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs came from fertilisers and soil improvers (11.1 percentage points), followed by compound feedingstuffs (7.1 percentage points), and energy and lubricants (4.5 percentage points).
• No downward contributions were recorded for September 2022.
• The price index for agricultural inputs increased by 0.3% in the month to September 2022, compared with a decrease of 0.7% in the month to August 2022.

2. Summary charts for price indices

Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to September 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 1 shows the monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs during the previous 6 years (September 2016 to September 2022). Overall, the price index for agricultural outputs tends to be more volatile than that for agricultural inputs. Agricultural inputs have seen month-on-month price inflation throughout 2021 and in the first half of 2022 but have stabilised in recent months. For agricultural outputs, September 2022 is the third consecutive month for which prices have decreased, following significant inflation in the first half of 2022.

Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to September 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2015. In 2022 (to date), the annual average price index was 17.4% higher for agricultural outputs and 26.0% higher for agricultural inputs than in 2021. The year with the largest difference between the agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs remains 2017, with 2020 showing the second largest difference.

Year	All agricultural outputs	All agricultural inputs
2015	100.0	100.0
2016	99.6	97.4
2017	110.7	102.5
2018	115.4	110.9
2019	114.2	112.6
2020	119.2	112.6
2021	131.3	125.5
2022	154.1	158.0

3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 3: Contributions to change in the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (22.7%) from September 2021 to September 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 3 shows the contributions to the 22.7% change in the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate between September 2021 and September 2022. Eleven of the sixteen output categories shown reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from milk, wheat, barley, and fresh vegetables, with downward contributions from poultry and forage plants.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Milk	10.5
Wheat	4.5
Barley	1.7
Fresh vegetables	1.7
Pigs	1.5
Cattle and calves	1.0
Fresh fruit	0.5
Oilseed rape	0.4
Eggs	0.2
Oats	0.2
Sheep and lambs	0.1
Sugar beet	0.0
Plants and flowers	0.0
Potatoes	0.0
Forage plants	0.0
Poultry	-0.1

Figure 4: Contributions to change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (31.7%) from September 2021 to September 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 4 shows the contributions to the 31.7% change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate between September 2021 and September 2022. The largest upward contributions came from fertilisers and soil improvers, compound feedingstuffs, energy and lubricants, and straight feedingstuffs. No downward contributions were recorded for September 2022.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Fertilisers and soil improvers	11.1
Compound feedingstuffs	7.1
Energy and lubricants	4.5
Straight feedingstuffs	2.9
Materials	1.8
Buildings	1.1
Other goods and services	1.0
Plant protection products	0.7
Maintenance of buildings	0.7
Maintenance of materials	0.4
Seeds	0.3
Veterinary services	0.0

4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, September 2021 to September 2022

Figure 5 shows the extent to which different agricultural commodity categories have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated between 6.4% and 25.4% since September 2021, with the main contributors varying for different months. Most recently, the 12-month inflation rate in September 2022 saw upward contributions from all four output categories, with livestock and animal products being the largest contributor to this.

Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, September 2021 to September 2022

Figure 6 shows the extent to which different agricultural inputs have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural inputs decreased by 0.4 percentage points on the previous month in September 2022, following substantial increases throughout the last year as a result of higher prices across all farm input categories. The increasing cost of natural gas prices has severely impacted the fertiliser industry. With domestic production greatly reduced from September 2021, the price of fertilisers has increased considerably. For example, Muriate of Potash was nearly twice as expensive in September 2022 than in September 2021. Animal feed prices have also risen substantially since September 2021, as a result of tight global supplies.

More information on the contents of each group can be found in the About these statistics section below.

5. Summary table of price indices

Table 1: Price indices for all agricultural outputs to September 2022 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate^(a)(b)

Table 1 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural outputs split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.

Category	September 2021	August 2022	September 2022	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural outputs	130.3	161.0	159.8	22.7	-0.7
Crop products	142.0	173.7	171.5	20.8	-1.2
Cereals	155.9	223.0	220.1	41.2	-1.3
Wheat	155.5	217.9	222.0	42.7	1.9
Barley	158.6	231.3	217.6	37.2	-5.9
Oats	133.1	199.3	197.5	48.4	-0.9
Potatoes	138.2	138.2	138.2	0.0	0.0
Oilseed rape	184.3	224.6	210.3	14.1	-6.4
Sugar beet	104.8	104.8	104.8	0.0	0.0
Forage plants	149.7	138.0	131.4	-12.3	-4.8
Fresh vegetables	139.1	164.8	166.2	19.4	0.8
Fresh fruit	147.3	108.2	161.4	9.6	49.1
Animals and animal products	122.5	150.7	152.0	24.1	0.9
Animals	121.5	132.4	131.3	8.1	-0.8
Cattle and calves	123.5	134.4	134.5	8.9	0.1
Pigs	117.0	150.4	152.4	30.2	1.3
Sheep and lambs	133.2	140.5	135.5	1.7	-3.6
Poultry	114.3	114.9	113.0	-1.2	-1.7
Animal products	124.0	178.1	184.2	48.6	3.4
Milk	128.9	192.2	199.5	54.7	3.8
Eggs	99.6	106.7	106.7	7.1	0.0

^(a) Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of price changes within this market.

^(b) Egg prices are provided quarterly and with a delay of several months. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market.

Table 2: Price indices for all agricultural inputs to September 2022 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate^(a)

Table 2 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural inputs split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.

Category	September 2021	August 2022	September 2022	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural inputs	126.5	166.2	166.7	31.7	0.3
Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture	128.9	173.2	173.5	34.6	0.2
Seeds	115.5	123.8	123.8	7.1	0.0
Energy and lubricants	130.1	204.9	201.8	55.1	-1.5
Fertilisers and soil improvers	140.8	296.4	299.0	112.4	0.9
Plant protection products	147.6	162.0	162.0	9.8	0.0
Veterinary services	116.1	118.1	118.2	1.8	0.1
Animal feedingstuffs	133.1	179.0	179.9	35.1	0.5
Straight feedingstuffs	142.6	183.3	185.9	30.3	1.4
Compound feedingstuffs	128.8	177.1	177.1	37.5	0.0
Maintenance of materials	117.6	125.3	126.1	7.2	0.7
Maintenance of buildings	137.3	159.5	160.2	16.7	0.4
Other goods and services	113.8	122.8	123.0	8.1	0.2
Goods and services contributing to investment	116.0	135.4	136.1	17.4	0.5
Materials	109.6	127.2	127.4	16.3	0.2
Buildings	130.4	154.1	155.7	19.4	1.0

^(a) Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs.

National Statistics status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.

For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:

Email: [email protected]

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You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/

About these statistics

Revisions

• Price index for Fresh Vegetables revised for January 2017 to August 2022.

Background

The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).

The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.

Data uses

Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.

Methodology

Price data

Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.

In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.

Weights

Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The April 2018 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2015, replacing weights based on 2010.

Contributions

It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.

The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.

The categories shown in Figures 5 and 6 were created by aggregating the following categories:

• Fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, flowers and plants, and potatoes into horticulture.

• Industrial crops, forage plants and other crop products into industrial and other crops.

• Fertilisers and soil improvers, plant protection products and seeds into crop-related costs.

• Animal feedingstuffs and veterinary services into livestock-related costs.

• Maintenance of buildings, maintenance of materials, other goods and services, buildings and materials into other farm costs.

User engagement

As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome. Feedback can be provided via this survey as well as by phone or email.

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Contact details

Responsible statistician: Matthew Lunn

Email: [email protected]

Public enquiries: (0)20 3025 7160

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York
YO1 7PX