How many people come to the UK irregularly?
Published 28 November 2024
© Crown copyright 2024
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: [email protected].
Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.
This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-september-2024/how-many-people-come-to-the-uk-irregularly
Back to ‘Immigration system statistics, year ending September 2024’ contents page.
Data relates to the year ending September 2024 and all comparisons are with the year ending September 2023 (unless indicated otherwise).
Additional information is provided in the ‘About the statistics’ section and in the user guide.
1. Irregular arrivals
Not all arrivals will be detected and the proportion of arrivals detected will vary by method. Therefore, it is not advisable to directly compare recorded detections on different methods of entry. However, some broad trends can be observed.
In the year ending September 2024, there were 36,949 detected irregular arrivals, 18% fewer than in the year ending September 2023, and 81% of these arrived by small boats.
Small boats have been the predominant recorded method of entry for irregular arrivals since 2020, when detections on this method increased rapidly and detections on other methods declined (likely in part due to the COVID-19 pandemic making other methods of entry, such as air or ferry, less viable). Small boat arrivals are also the most visible of the irregular methods of entry, so the most likely to be recorded.
Small boat arrival numbers are subject to seasonal fluctuations due to changes in the weather, typically with peaks in warmer summer months (for example, quarter 3 (Q3), July to September, see Figure 1). Comparisons of arrivals between the same months in different years may also be affected by differences in weather conditions. As a result, we do not make comparisons between shorter periods where arrival numbers may fluctuate considerably.
Figure 1: Detections of irregular arrivals to the UK, by method of entry, January 2018 to September 2024
Source: Irregular migration to the UK detailed dataset, year ending September 2024 - Irr_D01
1.1. Nationalities and demographics of arrivals
Since January 2018, 70% of people detected arriving irregularly have been adult males aged 18 and over.
Since 2018, just under one-fifth (19%) of detected irregular arrivals have been children aged 17 and under.
Financial, social, physical and geographical factors may influence the method of entry individuals use and the types of individuals detected arriving. These factors may also change over time.
Just under one-sixth (15%) of detected irregular arrivals in the year ending September 2024 were Afghans, the nationality in the top 5 for all 4 entry methods.
However, the number of Afghan small boat arrivals almost halved (decreasing 46%) in the year ending September 2024 (Figure 2).
Table 1: Top 5 nationalities detected arriving for each irregular method of entry, in the year ending September 20241,2
| Rank | Small boat arrivals (% of total) | Inadequately documented air arrivals (% of total) | Recorded detections in the UK (% of total) | Recorded detections at UK ports (% of total) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afghanistan, 4,859 (17%) |
Iran, 871 (26%) |
Sudan, 829 (24%) |
Albania, 61 (17%) |
| 2 | Iran, 3,895 (14%) |
Sri Lanka, 363 (11%) |
Eritrea, 560 (16%) |
Sudan, 55 (16%) |
| 3 | Syria, 3,385 (12%) |
Afghanistan, 317 (10%) |
Iran, 422 (12%) |
India, 41 (12%) |
| 4 | Vietnam, 3,307 (12%) |
Georgia, 299 (9%) |
Iraq, 373 (11%) |
Afghanistan, 30 (9%) |
| 5 | Eritrea, 2,171 (8%) |
Turkey, 203 (6%) |
Afghanistan, 237 (7%) |
Pakistan, 26 (7%) |
Source: Irregular migration to the UK detailed dataset, year ending September 2024 - Irr_D01
Notes:
- The top nationalities are those with the highest number of detected irregular arrivals for each separate method of entry in the year ending September 2024.
- Excludes small boat arrivals labelled as ‘Not currently recorded’, for whom information on nationality is not yet available.
Albanians were the top nationality detected arriving by small boat in the year ending September 2022 (12,024 arrivals). However, they have since declined to only 559 small boat arrivals in the year ending September 2024. The substantial increase in Albanian small boat arrivals in 2022 in part influenced the signing of the agreement in December 2022 between the UK and Albania to deter and disrupt irregular migration and criminal networks.
Arrivals by Vietnamese nationals in January to September 2024 (3,132 arrivals) were almost 3 times higher than in the same period of 2023 (1,131 arrivals). They were the second most common nationality detected arriving by small boat in January to September 2024 (13% of detected small boat arrivals), after Afghans (17% of detected small boat arrivals). In April 2024, the UK signed an agreement with Vietnam to increase cooperation on dealing with irregular migration.
Figure 2: Top nationalities arriving by small boats, year ending September 2019 to year ending September 20241,2
Source: Irregular migration to the UK detailed dataset, year ending September 2024 - Irr_D01
Notes:
- The top 5 nationalities of small boat arrivals in September 2024 plus Albania. Albania has been presented to reflect the nationality with largest percentage decrease over the past three years.
- Excludes arrivals where information on nationality was not recorded in the dataset.
2. Small boat arrivals
2.1. Number of small boat arrivals
Statistics on small boats include individuals who were detected on arrival to the UK, detected in the Channel and subsequently brought to the UK, and those encountered in the UK who were suspected of having arrived on a small boat within the previous 72 hours. They do not include any people who arrived on larger vessels (such as a ferry), those who arrived in the UK undetected or those prevented from departing France or intercepted by French authorities and returned to France (see the ‘user guide’).
In the year ending September 2024, 29,851 people arrived by small boats, 21% fewer than in the year ending September 2023 (37,556).
However, data for the first 9 months of 2024 shows that the number of small boat arrivals from January to September 2024 (25,244) was slightly (less than 2%) more than the number in the same period of 2023 (24,830) (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Cumulative number of people arriving by small boats each month, January 2020 to September 2024
Source: Irregular migration to the UK summary tables, year ending September 2024 - Irr_02a
2.2. Number of boats and people per boat
The average number of people per boat has increased, to 52 people per boat in the year ending September 2024 compared with an average of 37 people per boat in the year ending September 2022.
Figure 4: Number of small boats arriving and average number of people per boat, January 2018 to September 2024
Source: Irregular migration to the UK summary tables, year ending September 2024 - Irr_02a
In the year ending September 2024, 575 small boats had arrived in the UK without permission, 27% fewer than the 787 in the year ending September 2023. Although the number of people and boats arriving have decreased over the year as a whole, the average number of people per boat has increased from 10 people per boat on average in the year ending September 2019 to 52 people per boat in the year ending September 2024.
3. Asylum claims from small boat arrivals
The majority of small boat arrivals claim asylum, but small boat arrivals accounted for only a little over a quarter (28%) of the total number of people claiming asylum in the UK in the year ending September 2024.
Since 2018, 94% of the people arriving on a small boat have had an asylum claim recorded. Of the 128,503 small boat arrivals claiming asylum since 2018, almost half (48% or 62,313) had received a substantive decision (as on 11 October 2024). Of these, 43,464 had been granted asylum or some other protection status, and 18,849 were refused.
A further 15,510 people had their claims withdrawn before an initial decision (either withdrawn themselves, or by the Home Office following non-compliance). Such claims are not included in the grant rate calculations as they are not substantive decisions on the claim itself.
The small boat grant rate is the proportion of cases (excluding dependants) with initial decisions (grants and refusals) which resulted in a grant of protection or other leave.
Out of all asylum claims from small boat arrivals between 2018 and September 2024 that had received an initial decision, 71% were granted.
The number of small boat arrivals with an initial decision on their asylum claim will change as more individuals have their claims processed. Cases where the person claiming asylum arrived irregularly since 7 March 2023 previously fell under the criteria set out in the Illegal Migration Act, which meant they could not have their asylum claims considered. However, on 22 July 2024, the Home Secretary changed the law to remove the retrospective application of the Illegal Migration Act. Consequently, decision making on claims from individuals who arrived in the UK after 7 March 2023 has resumed.
Table 2: Small boat arrivals claiming asylum and initial decision outcomes on their claims, by arrival date, January 2018 to September 20241,2,3,4,5
| January 2018 to September 2024 (people) | January 2018 to September 2024 (cases) | |
|---|---|---|
| Small boat arrivals | 136,472 | Not applicable |
| Asylum claims | 128,503 | 115,737 |
| Awaiting a decision | 41,391 | 36,455 |
| Received an initial decision (% of claims) | 62,313 (48%) |
55,641 (48%) |
| of which: | ||
| granted refugee status or other leave (grant rate) |
43,464 | 39,587 (71%) |
| refused | 18,849 | 16,054 |
| Withdrawn | 15,510 | 14,874 |
| Received an administrative outcome | 9,289 | 8,767 |
Source: Irregular migration to the UK detailed dataset, year ending September 2024 - Irr_D02 and Irr_D03
Notes:
- People includes main applicants and dependants, whereas cases includes main applicants only.
- The time periods relate to the date of the small boat arrival, not the date of the asylum claim or outcome.
- Claims granted include grants of refugee status, humanitarian protection and other forms of leave.
- Grant rate is the percentage of claims that resulted in a grant of protection or some form of leave at initial decision, excluding withdrawn claims and claims which received an administrative outcome.
- Total small boat arrivals in this section on asylum claims will differ slightly from the total small boat arrivals cited elsewhere in this publication due to differences in the dates on which data was extracted.
More detail on all asylum claims is available in the ‘How many people claim asylum in the UK?’ chapter and more detail on the outcomes of asylum claims is available in the ‘How many people are granted asylum in the UK?’ chapter of the Immigration system statistics quarterly release, including definitions on asylum case outcome types in the asylum and resettlement detailed datasets.
4. Potential victims of modern slavery
Modern slavery includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK are referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM). For more information on NRM referrals, see the ‘user guide’. For statistics on all modern slavery referrals (not just those relating to people arriving by small boat), see the ‘National Referral Mechanism statistics’.
4.1 Small boat arrivals with modern slavery referrals
Ten per cent of small boat arrivals have been referred as potential victims of modern slavery.
Of the 136,472 small boat arrivals since 2018, 14,231 people were referred to the NRM.
The number of small boat arrivals in each year with NRM referrals may increase, as time will allow more people to identify as potential victims and be referred into the NRM.
4.2 Outcomes of small boat modern slavery referrals
Of the 3,751 conclusive grounds decisions issued since 2018, just over half (54%) were negative, meaning they were not deemed to be a victim of modern slavery.
Most small boat arrivals with NRM referrals have received a reasonable grounds decision, but not yet received a conclusive grounds decision, as conclusive grounds decisions take considerably longer (table 3). More recent periods naturally have a higher proportion awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, as less time has passed for a decision to be made.
Table 3: Outcomes of small boat modern slavery referrals, by arrival date, January 2018 to September 20241,2,3,4,5
| January 2018 to September 2023 | Year ending September 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Small boat arrivals | 108,072 | 28,400 |
| Arrivals with NRM referrals | 11,908 | 2,323 |
| Reasonable grounds (RG) decisions | 10,864 | 2,165 |
| Positive (%) | 6,746 (62%) | 695 (32%) |
| Negative (%) | 4,118 (38%) | 1,470 (68%) |
| Awaiting RG decision | 95 | 99 |
| Conclusive grounds (CG) decisions | 3,627 | 124 |
| Positive (%) | 1,660 (46%) | 50 (40%) |
| Negative (%) | 1,967 (54%) | 74 (60%) |
| Awaiting CG decision | 3,083 | 570 |
| Referrals withdrawn / closed | 969 | 59 |
| Awaiting reconsideration | 16 | 1 |
Source: Irregular migration to the UK detailed dataset, year ending September 2024 - Irr_D04 and Irr_D05
Notes:
- The time periods relate to the date of the small boat arrival, not the date of NRM referral or decision. NRM referrals can be made at any stage after arrival into the UK.
- Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds and conclusive grounds. Therefore, individuals will be counted in multiple groups shown in the table. For example, those who are awaiting, or have received, a conclusive grounds decision will have previously received a positive reasonable grounds decision. Some individuals who are awaiting reconsideration and some of those whose referrals have since been withdrawn / closed will also have previously received a positive reasonable grounds decision.
- Referrals withdrawn / closed includes some claims where contact with the individual has been lost. These may be reopened if the individual makes contact in future.
- Claims awaiting reconsideration includes both those awaiting a new reasonable grounds decision and those awaiting a new conclusive grounds decision.
- Total small boat arrivals in this section on NRM referrals will differ slightly from the total small boat arrivals cited elsewhere in this publication due to differences in the dates on which data was extracted.
5. Returns of small boat arrivals
Between 2018 and September 2024, there have been 4,420 returns of people who arrived by small boat, 3% of all small boat arrivals during this time.
For further information on returns of small boat arrivals (and all returns from the UK), see the ‘How many people are detained or returned?’ chapter of the Immigration system statistics quarterly release.
6. About the statistics
The Irregular Migration statistics were designated as ‘Official Statistics’ from February 2022. For more information, please see the quality section of the Irregular Migration statistics user guide.
The underlying casework systems on which this data is based are undergoing a process of change and therefore the published numbers may change in future quarters.
All statistics in this chapter relate to people who come to the UK irregularly. It includes those arriving on a small boat across the English Channel (a ‘small boat arrival’), along with some other groups arriving without prior lawful permission.
The statistics presented here relate to the number of people detected on, or shortly after, arrival to the UK through various irregular methods of entry. They do not include all those who enter the UK through irregular methods, nor the number of irregular migrants currently present in the UK. It is not possible to know the exact number of people currently resident in the UK without permission, nor the total number of people who enter the UK irregularly, and so we have not produced any official estimates for this number.
This is because:
-
some people will successfully evade border controls and remain in the UK undetected
-
some people may enter the UK on regular routes and their status subsequently becomes ‘irregular’ – for example, if they overstay a visa (it should be noted that there are a number of ways in which a person’s departure from the UK may legitimately not be recorded on the system)
-
the data sources available count the number of recorded detections - in some instances the same person may be detected multiple times, either for the same method of entry or across different methods of entry (such individuals will be counted multiple times in the statistics)
-
some people may enter the UK irregularly but obtain ‘regular’ status – for example, following a successful asylum claim
Figures on detections may be affected by the levels of operational activity at the border and overseas, so should not be used to infer levels of irregular migration. Changes in detection could be a result of changes in operational activity as well as changes in the number of people attempting to enter the UK irregularly and recording practices.
Some people seek to enter the UK without valid permission but are prevented from reaching the UK border (for example, at the juxtaposed controls in France and Belgium, or further afield, if prevented from travelling). Prevented attempts are not reported in this chapter. However, a weekly summary of small boat arrivals and preventions is published separately, including definitions of what these figures include. This data on small boat preventions can be used to provide more context on people attempting to cross the English Channel in small boats. Any counts of arrivals and attempted entries may relate to multiple arrivals or attempts by the same individual, and therefore will not relate to numbers of people.
For more information on the data in this chapter, please see the ‘user guide’.
7. Data tables
Data referred to here can be found in the following tables:
We welcome your feedback If you have any comments or suggestions for the development of this report, please provide feedback by emailing [email protected]. Please include the words ‘PUBLICATION FEEDBACK’ in the subject of your email.
We’re always looking to improve the accessibility of our documents. If you find any problems or have any feedback relating to accessibility, please email us.
See section 6 of the ‘About this release’ section for more details.