Official Statistics

Individuals referred to and supported through the Prevent Programme, April 2023 to March 2024

Published 5 December 2024

Applies to England and Wales

This release contains official statistics in development on individuals referred to and supported through the Prevent programme due to concerns they were susceptible to radicalisation. Following initial screening and assessment, referrals may be passed to a multi-agency ‘Channel panel’ where a risk of radicalisation exists. Chaired by Local Authorities, these panels determine the extent of an individual’s susceptibility to radicalisation and whether a tailored package of support is necessary and proportionate to address the risk.

Key results

In the year ending 31 March 2024, there were 6,922 referrals to Prevent. This is an increase of 1.5% compared to the previous year (6,817), and the third highest number of referrals since the first period reported on (2015 to 2016).

Of the 6,922 referrals made to Prevent in the year ending 31 March 2024:

• 893 individuals (13% of referrals) were discussed at a Channel panel, and 512 individuals (7% of referrals) adopted as a Channel case went on to receive Channel support; and looking in more detail at the journey of individuals referred, this represents a decrease when compared with the previous year despite the overall number of referrals increasing
• the proportion of referrals being discussed at a Channel panel has decreased (13% this year versus 16% last year and 23% the year before) while the proportion of referrals that were adopted as a Channel case also decreased (7% this year versus 9% last year and 13% the year before)
• the Education sector made the highest number of referrals (2,788), accounting for 40% of all referrals this year; this is similar to last year and this is the highest proportion for any source of referral since data was first published in 2015 to 2016
• referrals by the Police (1,921; 28%) fell by 1% compared with the previous year, marking the first time referrals by the Police have fallen year-on-year since 2020 to 2021; while referrals from the Community increased by 36% (from 115 to 156) and referrals from HMPPS fell by 16% (from 267 to 225)
• 6,884 referrals were made to Prevent where the age of the individual was known, and those aged 11 to 15 accounted for the largest proportion (2,729; 40%); while those aged between 16 and 17 accounted for the second largest proportion (892; 13%) of referrals
• 511 cases were adopted by Channel where the age of the individual was known, with individuals aged between 11 and 15 accounting for half (50%) of cases adopted by Channel
• as in previous years where sex was specified (6,906), most referrals were for males (6,114; 89%)
• the category ‘Vulnerability present but no ideology or CT risk’ accounted for the largest proportion of referrals (2,489; 36%)
• for the fourth year running, the number of referrals for ‘Extreme right-wing concerns’ (1,314; 19%) is greater than referrals for ‘Islamist concerns’ (913; 13%); this marks the first year since 2019 to 2020 that the number of referrals for Islamist concerns have increased compared with the previous year
• the majority of referrals that went on to be adopted as a Channel case were for ‘Extreme right-wing concerns’ (230 out of 512; 45%); while 118 (23%) were for ‘Islamist concerns’ and 90 (18%) were for those with a conflicted ideology

1. Introduction

Prevent forms part of the Government’s wider counter-terrorism strategy, known as CONTEST. The latest version of the CONTEST strategy was published in July 2023. Prevent aims to safeguard people from becoming terrorists or supporting terrorism. For more information, please see the following publications on the GOV.UK website: Prevent duty guidance, Channel duty guidance and 2023 CONTEST strategy.

1.1 Coverage of this release

This release contains official statistics in development on the number of individuals recorded as having been referred to and supported through the Prevent programme in England and Wales, from 1 April 2023 to 31 March 2024. The statistics cover an individual’s journey from referral to adoption as a case, broken down by demographic statistics, the type of concern and regions.

More information about official statistics in development can be found on the UK Statistics Authority website. The Home Office aims to improve the quality of data recording and assurance procedures so that these statistics can be designated as official statistics in future years. Work is underway to improve the level of consistency in recording Prevent referrals across different regions in England and Wales. Home Office analysts have worked with policy colleagues and Counter Terrorism Policing to address issues which includes developing further guidance and training for police case officers and channel practitioners and developing a merged data recording system which went live in May 2024.

More detailed breakdowns of the data relating to this release can be found in the accompanying data tables. This includes data for Prevent and Channel in the years ending March 2016 to March 2024.

1.2 Identification and referrals

If a member of the public, or someone working with the public, has a concern about a person they know who may be susceptible to radicalisation, they can raise their concerns with their local authority safeguarding team or the police for an assessment.

Staff working in public-facing organisations receive training to help identify people who may be susceptible to radicalisation, and what to do about it. Local authorities, schools, colleges, universities, health bodies, prisons, probation organisations and the police are subject to a statutory duty through the Counter-Terrorism and Security Act 2015 to include in their day-to-day work consideration of the need to safeguard people from being drawn into terrorism.

1.3 Initial assessment

The police screen all referrals to check whether the individual is already part of, or should be part of, a terrorism investigation, as these individuals are not appropriate for Channel support. Depending upon the type and level of terrorism risk identified by police, these cases may be adopted for management via a police-led partnership or escalated into an investigation. All Prevent referrals received are recorded on the Prevent Case Management Tracker (PCMT). Once this has taken place, the initial assessment may conclude that no further action is required. In other cases, an individual’s vulnerability may be assessed as not linked to radicalisation and they may be referred to another form of support. All Prevent referrals are confidential and do not result in a criminal record or any other form of sanction.

1.4 The Channel programme

The Channel programme in England and Wales is an initiative that provides a multi-agency approach to support people susceptible to radicalisation. For those individuals where the police assess there is a risk of radicalisation, a Channel panel chaired by the local authority, and attended by other partners such as representatives from education and health services, will meet to discuss the referral. They will discuss the extent of the susceptibility, assess all the circumstances of the case, and decide whether to adopt the individual as a Channel case. Cases are adopted in order to further assess the susceptibility, or to provide a tailored package of support where necessary and proportionate to do so. A Channel panel may decide that an individual’s vulnerability is not terrorism-related and will refer the individual to other forms of support. Since May 2024, data on Channel cases is recorded in a new Prevent Case Management Tracker (PCMT) that has been developed between the Home Office and Counter-Terrorism Policing. Prior to that, and for data presented in this year’s release, data on Channel cases was extracted from the Home Office owned Channel Management Information System (CMIS).

Information shared among partners is strictly within the terms of the Data Protection Act and the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The Home Office collects, processes and shares personal information to enable it to carry out its statutory functions as part of Channel. For further information on how personal data is stored and used for the Channel programme, please refer to the Channel Data Privacy Information Notice (DPIN).

The Counter-Terrorism and Security Act 2015 placed the Channel programme on a statutory footing and created a duty on each local authority in England and Wales to ensure there is a panel in place for its area. Statutory guidance for Channel panels was first published in March 2015.

1.5 Providing support and leaving the programme

Participation in the Channel programme is confidential, and consent is obtained before Channel support is provided. Where consent is not secured, the case will need to be closed to Channel. Many types of support are available, addressing educational, vocational, mental health and other vulnerabilities. Ideological mentoring is common. Tailored support is provided based on the needs identified for an individual. The role of the Channel panel is to coordinate service support through statutory partners and Channel-commissioned Intervention Providers (IPs) or oversee existing activity depending on what is most appropriate and proportionate for the case.

A Channel panel will review the progress of an individual in the Channel programme on a monthly basis. If there is an escalation of risk, where deemed appropriate, the police may transfer a case from Channel to police-led partnership management or escalate it into an investigation. The panel decides an individual will leave the Channel programme when there is no further risk of radicalisation. Support to address non-radicalisation-related concerns could continue in some cases but would be managed outside of the Channel programme.

The local authority or other providers may provide alternative forms of support to individuals who do not consent to Channel support or are deemed not appropriate for the Channel programme. In these circumstances, the police will manage any risk of terrorism that might present.

After an individual has left the Channel programme, their progress will be reviewed after 6 and 12 months as a minimum. If the individual shows further radicalisation-related concerns, they can re-enter the Channel programme and receive further support.

The Prevent process is summarised below in figure 1, including how a referral is handled within Police Case Management and at Channel.

Figure 1: Prevent process flow diagram

Source: Home Office

1.6 Main changes and additions to this release

There have been changes in the data presented within this publication which concern:

• the breakdown of data for referrals made to Prevent, cases discussed at a Channel Panel and cases adopted as a Channel case by age including a new set of age group categories for the individuals aged ‘0 to 10’, ‘11 to 15’, ‘16 to 17’ and ‘18 to 21’ since 2016 to 2017
• the trends in Prevent referrals and Channel cases following the terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel on 7 October 2023 to identify changes to Prevent activity trends before and after the attack between 7 October 2023 to 31 March 2024

The main changes and additions to the Bulletin are presented in detail in section 7 (Further information) under ‘section 7.1’ ‘Main changes and additions to the bulletin’.

2. People referred to the Prevent programme

This section presents statistics on the number of referrals to Prevent due to concerns that an individual is susceptible to radicalisation. It includes the sector of referral and information on how the individuals referred were assessed and supported, including those who required no further action, a referral to another service or were reviewed by a Channel panel for support through the Channel programme.

The data presented in this release represents activity recorded by the police and Local Authority partners. Although quality assurance is undertaken to confirm these numbers, the statistics rely on recording of information and so the overall completeness and accuracy of reported totals cannot be guaranteed. Please see the user guide for further information.

Throughout this release, the number of referrals reported includes individuals who had been referred more than once during the year. This information is included as each referral may not contain the same information (for example, different sector of referral or type of concern) and may not have the same outcome (for example, signposted to statutory partners, discussed at a Channel panel). Including multiple referrals provides a more complete picture of all support recorded and provided through the Prevent programme in the year ending March 2024. Therefore, the release does not specifically provide the unique number of individuals referred.

2.1 The referral process

In the year ending 31 March 2024, there were 6,922 referrals to Prevent due to concerns that an individual was susceptible to radicalisation. This year, the Education sector made the most referrals (2,788; 40%), which is also the highest proportion for any source of referral since data was first published, followed by the Police (1,921; 28%). Compared with the previous year, the proportion of referrals made by the Education, Local Authority, Health, and Community sectors increased by 4%, 4%, 11% and 36% respectively, whilst the proportion of referrals made by the Police, Friends and Family, ‘Other’ and HMPPS sectors decreased by 1%, 9%, 10% and 16% respectively.

Figure 2: Sector of referral and subsequent journey, year ending 31 March 2024

Source: Home Office, Individuals referred to and supported through the Prevent programme, England and Wales, April 2023 to March 2024, Table 2

Notes:

1. HM Prison and Probation Service.
2. ‘Other’ includes employment, military and government (including Home Office Immigration Enforcement and HMRC), for example.
3. Referrals received that ‘required no further action’ include but are not limited to: individuals already receiving support through Prevent, those presenting a higher risk than can be managed by Prevent, and those who were found to have no susceptibility at initial assessment.
4. Individuals can be signposted after a Channel case has been closed to ensure that they continue to receive support for any non-radicalisation-related vulnerabilities.
5. Data quality checks found that in some cases, Channel Case Officers are recording that an individual has been ‘signposted to a service’ following case closure, also notifying the source of referral to re-refer if concerns are raised again in future. Therefore, the statistics on the number of individuals referred to alternative services may include those services continuing to support the individual following their exit from the Prevent programme.
6. Cases who were recommended at Channel panel for adoption but where the individual did not consent or withdrew consent are counted as ‘Not adopted as a Channel case’.
7. The sum of ‘Required no further action’, ‘Signposted to other services’, and ‘discussed at a Channel panel’ do not equal the total number of Prevent referrals due to 176 open cases at the information gathering stage at the point of data confirmation (10 May 2024). Individuals can be signposted to statutory partners to address wider susceptibilities depending on what the panel assess as being necessary and proportionate.
8. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Of the 6,922 referrals to Prevent in the year ending 31 March 2024:

• 85% (5,853) were deemed not suitable for Channel consideration and exited the process prior to a Channel panel discussion; of which the majority were signposted to other services (4,514; 77%)
• 13% (893) were discussed at a Channel Panel and considered for support
• Ultimately, 7% (512) of all referrals were adopted as a Channel case
• an additional 176 cases were open at the information gathering stage at the time of data confirmation (10 May 2024)

The proportion of Prevent referrals that are ultimately adopted as a Channel case has dropped in recent years (7% in year ending March 2024 vs 9% year ending March 2023 and 13% year ending March 2022). Since 2016 to 2017, Prevent referrals have been adopted as a Channel case at an average rate of 9%. The drop this year may in part be due to data reporting issues following the move to a new case management system rolled out in May 2024. See the user guide for more details on the new system. Ahead of this rollout, there is evidence to suggest that some Police forces stopped utilising the Channel Management Information System to record referrals that made it to Channel. Referrals adopted as a case but not recorded on CMIS are not accessible to Home Office analysts and therefore not reported in these statistics.

Of the 4,514 referrals signposted to alternative services for support, most were directed to the Education sector (1,496; 33%) and Local Authorities (933; 21%).

Of the 893 referrals deemed suitable through preliminary assessment to be discussed at a Channel panel in the year ending 31 March 2024:

• 381 (43%) referrals were not adopted as a Channel case; of these, the majority (272; 71%) were signposted to alternative services^{[footnote 1]} for support outside of the Channel programme to address non-radicalisation-related concerns, where the panel deemed the individuals to have non-radicalisation-related vulnerabilities. while a smaller proportion either had appropriate support already in place, or might not have consented to support
• over half of referrals discussed at a Channel Panel were adopted as a Channel case (512; 57%). Of these, more than half (286; 56%) of the individuals concerned left the Channel process within the 12 months ending 31 March 2024; 226 (44%) remained a Channel case at time of data confirmation (10 May 2024)

Of the 286 referrals adopted as a Channel case that have subsequently closed, 254 (89%) of the individuals concerned exited with no further radicalisation concerns. This can include individuals:

• who had a susceptibility to radicalisation addressed by a Channel-commissioned Intervention Provider
• for whom the Channel panel oversaw existing support already in place through statutory partners
• who were adopted as a Channel case to further assess whether a susceptibility to radicalisation was present and determine whether additional support was needed

The remaining 32 referrals (11%) that were adopted as a case and have now closed, concerned individuals who either withdrew from the Channel programme or were withdrawn because it was no longer deemed appropriate, although in some cases support from other services may still be in place. Any terrorism risk that might be present is managed by the police.

2.2 Referrals over time

In the year ending 31 March 2024, there were 6,922 referrals to Prevent, a 1.5% increase in comparison with the previous year (6,817). Quarter 3 saw the highest number of referrals (2,048; 30%), whereas, like last year, Quarter 2 saw the lowest number of referrals (1,455; 21%).

There was a 20% decrease in the number of referrals deemed suitable through a preliminary assessment to be discussed at a Channel panel compared with the previous year (893 down from 1,113). The proportion of referrals discussed at a Channel panel also decreased (13%, down from 16% in the previous year). As discussed above, this data may be impacted by the transition to the new case management data system.

In the year ending 31 March 2024, 512 referrals were adopted as a Channel case, 133 fewer cases compared with the 645 referrals adopted as a case in the previous year. The proportion of referrals adopted as a Channel case also decreased (7% this year versus 9% in the previous year), marking the second year in a row that the proportion has dropped below 10%. However, the proportion of referrals discussed at a Channel panel that went on to be adopted as a Channel case this year (512 of 893; 57%) only marginally decreased when compared with last year (645 of 1,113; 58%).

Figure 3: Proportion of Prevent referrals and the referrals discussed at a Channel Panel and adopted as a Channel case, years ending 31 March 2016 to 2024

Source: Home Office, Individuals referred to and supported through the Prevent programme, England and Wales, April 2023 to March 2024, Table 1

Notes:

1. Those adopted as a Channel case are also discussed at a Channel panel but the numbers are shown separately here.

3. Demographics

This section reports statistics on the individuals referred to Prevent due to concerns about their susceptibility to radicalisation. Demographics (including age and sex) are reported according to their progression through Prevent as well as the type of concern raised.

3.1 Age

This year the Home Office introduced a new set of age groups to provide additional detail on the makeup of Prevent referrals. In the year ending 31 March 2024, individuals aged 11 to 15 accounted for the largest proportion of the 6,884 referrals to Prevent (2,729; 40%) where age was known (figure 4). This continues the trend since 2020 to 2021 where this age group have accounted for an increased proportion of referrals each year. Of the 50,027 referrals made since 2016 to 2017 where age was known, those aged between 11 to 15 account for 32% (15,833). Those aged between 16 to 17 account for the second largest proportion (892; 13%) of all referrals.

The median age is the age of the middle person, when sorted from youngest to oldest. Using the median provides a good indication of the age of the ‘typical’ person referred by each sector. The median age of all referrals, like last year, was 16 years.

As individuals moved through the Prevent programme in the year ending 31 March 2024, those aged 11 to 15 accounted for a slightly larger proportion of both those discussed at a Channel Panel (374; 42%) and those adopted as a Channel case (254; 50%).

Figure 4: Age group from youngest to oldest of those referred, discussed at a Channel panel and adopted as a Channel case, year ending March 2024

Source: Home Office, Individuals referred to and supported through the Prevent programme, England and Wales, April 2023 to March 2024, Table 4

3.2 Sex

In the year ending 31 March 2024, of the 6,906 referrals where sex was specified, the majority were for males (6,114; 89%). Males also accounted for the majority of the referrals discussed at a Channel panel (813 of 893; 91%) and those adopted as a Channel case (465 of 512; 91%).

The proportion of males at each stage of the Prevent programme has been increasing since the year ending 31 March 2016, the earliest period for which comparable data is available. However, the largest increase has been in the proportion of males adopted as a Channel case. In the year ending 31 March 2016, 85% (321 of 378) of referrals adopted as a Channel case were for males, this compares with 91% (465 of 512) in the year ending March 2024.

4. Type of concern

The type of concern presented is based upon information provided by the referrer. For cases that progress further into the programme, officers may update this based upon new information that comes to light as they gather information to help them provide support tailored to the individual’s need. Therefore, the statistics regarding the type of concern raised are likely to include a mix of the type of concern raised by the original referrer and the type of concern that the Channel Case Officers believe the individual is presenting as more information has become available. The type of concern is also recorded differently within the 2 data recording systems that are the source for these statistics (PCMT and CMIS).

In 2021 to 2022, Home Office analysts amended the way in which a referral’s type of concern is presented. The same approach continues this year and the sub-categories that were aggregated into ‘Mixed, unstable and unclear’ in previous years are reported directly to provide a more granular view of types of concern.

4.1 Referrals by the type of concern

In the year ending 31 March 2024, of the 6,921 referrals to Prevent where the type of concern is specified, 36% (2,489) were for individuals with ‘Vulnerability present but no ideology or CT risk’. Referrals due to ‘Extreme right-wing concerns’ (1,314; 19%) accounted for the second highest proportion, followed by referrals regarding Conflicted ideology (1,278; 18%). 13% (913) of referrals were due to concerns regarding Islamist ideology.

Referrals for individuals with a ‘Vulnerability present but no ideology or CT risk’ increased year-on-year between year ending 31 March 2020, when it first became available as a type of concern category on PCMT, and year ending 31 March 2023. This is the first year that referrals for this type of concern have decreased in both numbers and as a proportion of all referrals.

There were 4 more referrals made for ‘Extreme right-wing concerns’ this year (1,314) when compared to last year (1,310). The number of Islamist referrals increased by 17% (781 to 913), accounting for 13% of all referrals where type of concern is specified. Despite the increase this year, Islamist referrals are still 75% lower than their highest levels (3,706) seen in the year ending March 2017. The number of referrals for ‘Extreme right-wing concerns’ is greater than Islamist referrals for the fourth year running. Referrals for ‘Conflicted’ concerns increased by 5% (1,214 to 1,278) but still account for 18% of referrals where type of concern is specified.

There were 126 referrals (2%) related to ‘Other’ types of concerns. Although numbers were comparatively low, this includes concerns regarding international radicalisation groups, left-wing radicalisation and Northern Ireland-related extremism, for example. 162 (2%) referrals were made for ‘School massacre’ concerns, and 54 (1%) referrals were made for ‘Incel’ concerns, representing a 2% increase in ‘School massacre’ related concerns and a 22% decrease in ‘Incel’ related concerns compared to the previous year.

Figure 5: Prevent referrals by type of concern, years ending March 2023 to 2024

Source: Home Office, Individuals referred to and supported through the Prevent programme, England and Wales, April 2023 to March 2024, Table 6

A total of 512 referrals were adopted as a Channel case, all of which had the type of concern specified on the data system. As in previous years, there were more adopted cases for individuals referred for concerns related to extreme right-wing radicalisation (230; 45%) compared to individuals with concerns related to Islamist radicalisation (118;23%). The number of referrals adopted as a Channel case for concerns related to extreme right-wing radicalisation (230) decreased by 22% compared with the previous year (296). As a proportion of total referrals adopted as a Channel case, referrals due to concerns relating to extreme right-wing radicalisation (230; 45%) marginally decreased compared with the previous year (296, 46%).

The number of referrals adopted as a Channel case for Islamist radicalisation (118; 23%) concerns increased by 3% compared with the previous year (115). As a proportion of total referrals adopted as a Channel case, referrals for Islamist concerns (118; 23%) increased compared with the previous year (115; 18%).

Individuals with ‘Conflicted concerns’ accounted for 18% (90) of referrals that were adopted as a Channel case. There were 32 referrals adopted as a Channel case for individuals with a ‘Vulnerability present but no CT risk or ideology’ (6%), 19 for ‘School massacre’ concerns (4%) and 9 for Incel-related concerns (2%). Compared to the previous year, the proportion adopted as a Channel case for ‘Vulnerability present but no CT risk or ideology’ concerns was lower (down from 11% to 6%), while the proportion with ‘School massacre’ concerns was marginally higher (up from 3% to 4%) and the proportion with Incel-related concerns remained relatively the same (2%).

4.2 Proportions of adoption as a case by type of concern

Overall, the proportion of referrals discussed at a Channel panel being subsequently adopted as a case marginally decreased from the previous year; 57% (512 of 893) of all referrals discussed went on to be adopted in the year ending March 2024 (compared to 58%; 645 out of 1,113).

Referrals discussed at a Channel panel for individuals with ‘Incel’ concerns were adopted as a case at the highest rate (64%; 9 of 14). Referrals discussed at a Channel panel for individuals with ‘School massacre concerns’ were adopted as a case at the joint second highest rate (61%; 19 of 31) with ‘Extreme right-wing concerns’ 61% (230 of 375). 53% (118 of 224) of those discussed at a Channel panel for ‘Islamist concerns’ went on to be adopted as a case. The lowest adoption rate was for referrals with ‘Vulnerability present but no ideology or CT risk’; 32 of 72 (44%).

4.3 Type of concern by age

Where age was known, those aged between 11 to 15 accounted for the largest proportion of referrals in 6 of the 9 categories of the type of concern. Individuals aged 11 to 15 accounted for 42% (543 of 1,308) of extreme right-wing referrals and 27% of Islamist referrals (248 of 905) where age was specified. The 11 to 15 age group also accounted for 69% of referrals for ‘School massacre’ referrals (111 of 161) where age is known. Individuals aged between 18 and 21 accounted for the highest proportion of referrals for ‘Incel’ concerns (20%; 11 of 54). Individuals aged between 31 to 40 and 41 to 50 jointly accounted for the highest proportion of referrals with ‘Other’ concerns (both 16%). Despite only accounting for 27% of Islamist referrals, those aged 11 to 15 accounted for 44% of adopted cases with Islamist concerns.

4.4 Type of concern by sex

For all types of concern, the proportion of males referred, discussed at a Channel panel and adopted as a Channel case was higher than females. Where sex was specified, males accounted for 94% (51 of 54) of referrals for ‘Incel concerns’, and 94% (1,237 of 1,313) of referrals for ‘Extreme right-wing concerns’. In comparison, 80% (733 of 911) of referrals for concerns related to Islamist radicalisation involved males.

Females accounted for a higher proportion of Islamist referrals than referrals for ‘Extreme right-wing concerns’. 19% (177 of 911) of referrals with ‘Islamist concerns’ were made for females where sex was specified. This is in line with the historical average; females have accounted for 19% (2,626 of 13,871) of all Islamist referrals where sex is specified since 2016 to 2017. The proportion of females with Islamist concerns adopted as a case is 16% (19 of 118).

5. Regional trends

This section reports regional trends in referrals for individuals due to concerns regarding their susceptibility to radicalisation. Geographic regions are reported according to their progression through the Prevent programme and the type of concern raised. The geographic regions presented are those covered by Home Office Regional Prevent Coordinators (RPCs) and therefore within this statistical collection, the North East also covers Yorkshire and the Humber.

In the year ending 31 March 2024, there were 116.1 referrals to Prevent per million population across England and Wales. This marks a slight decrease on the average in year ending 31 March 2023 which was 114.4 referrals per million population. The region that received the highest number of referrals per million population was the West Midlands (140.3), whereas the South East accounted for the highest proportion of referrals made (17%; 1,200 of 6,922). The South West region had the lowest number of referrals per million population (84.4), accounting for 7% of all referrals.

The region that had the highest number of referrals discussed at a Channel panel per million population was the North West (25.8; down from 38.4 last year). The North West was also the region that had the highest number of referrals adopted as a Channel case per million population (12.7; down from 18.6 last year). The North West region had the highest case adoption rate (11%; down from 12% last year), followed by the North East and South East region (9%; down from 11% last year and 9%; up from 7% respectively last year). The East Midlands, South West and Wales regions had the lowest case adoption rates (3%; 3%, 4% and 1% respectively last year)^{[footnote 2]}.

Please see table 7 of the accompanying data tables for more detailed breakdowns.

Figure 6: Total number of referrals, those discussed at a Channel panel and adopted as a Channel case by Counter Terrorism Policing regions, year ending 31 March 2024

Source: Home Office, Individuals referred to and supported through the Prevent programme, England and Wales, April 2023 to March 2024, Table 7; Office for National Statistics, Population and household estimates, England and Wales: Census 2021

6. Trends following the 7 October 2023 Hamas terrorist attack in Israel

This section reports trends in Prevent referrals and Channel cases following the terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel on 7 October 2023. This includes monthly data on referrals, cases discussed at Channel panel and cases adopted to identify trends after the attack between 7 October 2023 to 31 March 2024. Users should note that the analysis reports changes to Prevent activity for the individuals referred to and supported through the Prevent programme. This includes referrals made to Prevent and subsequent cases discussed at a Channel Panel or adopted as a Channel case between 7 October 2023 and 31 March 2024, however Home Office analysts cannot directly attribute any change in the trends to conflict-related factors.

6.1 Prevent referrals

In the period from 7 October 2023 to 31 March 2024, there were 3,728 referrals made to Prevent. This represents a marginal increase by less than 1% compared to the same period in 2022 to 2023 and an 11% increase compared to 2021 to 2022. This compares to a total of 3,696 referrals. For the same period in 2022 to 2023 and 2021 to 2022, there were a total of 3,696 referrals and 3,364 referrals.

Referrals from 7 October 2023 to 31 March 2024 accounted for 54% (3,728 out of 6,922) of all referrals in 2023 to 2024 for the period between 1 April 2023 to 31 March 2024. This is a similar proportion to previous years (54% in 2022 to 2023 and 53% in 2021 to 2022).

Figure 7: Total number of referrals to Prevent, by month from 7 October to 31 March, for the years 2021 to 2022, 2022 to 2023 and 2023 to 2024

Source: Prevent Case Management Tracker (PCMT) data provided to the Home Office by Counter-Terrorism Policing (CTPHQ) and Channel Management Information System (CMIS) Home Office data

Considering the data by month, the total number of referrals to Prevent in October, November and December 2023 (589, 725 and 612 referrals) was higher than in each of these comparative months in the previous 2 years (477, 705 and 509 referrals in October, November and December 2022 and 496, 696 and 583 referrals in October, November and December 2021). Considering the proportion that this represents of the total referrals over the year, there is little difference between the number of referrals in October, November and December 2023 as a proportion of all referrals in 2023 to 2024 compared to the previous 2 years.

Figure 8: Proportion of referrals to Prevent, by month, from 7 October to 31 March, for the years 2021 to 2022, 2022 to 2023 and 2023 to 2024

Source: Prevent Case Management Tracker (PCMT) data provided to the Home Office by Counter-Terrorism Policing (CTPHQ) and Channel Management Information System (CMIS) Home Office data

Of the 3,728 referrals made to Prevent between 7 October 2023 and 31 March 2024, 366 (10%; 366 out of 3,728) were discussed at a Channel panel. Of these 232 (63%; 232 out of 366) were adopted as a Channel case. This compares to 527 (16%; 527 out of 3,194) discussed at a Channel panel and 280 (53%; 280 out of 527) adopted as a case for the earlier part of the year before the Hamas terrorist attack in Israel (1 April 2023 to 6 October 2023).

6.2 Prevent referrals by type of concern

Of the 3,728 referrals made to Prevent between 7 October 2023 and 31 March 2024, 35% of referrals were for individuals with ‘Vulnerability present but no Ideology or CT risk’ concerns (1,294 referrals). This is also similar to the period between 1 April 2023 to 6 October 2023 for individuals with ‘Vulnerability present but no Ideology or CT risk’ concerns (37%; 1,195 out of 3,194). On average^{[footnote 3]} there were 62 referrals per month with an Islamist concern before 7 October compared to 91 referrals with an Islamist concern after 7 October. For ‘Extreme right-wing concerns’, there were on average 98 referrals per month before 7 October and 121 referrals per month after 7 October. A summary of the number of referrals made to Prevent per month by type of concern between 7 October 2023 and 31 March 2024 can be found in table 1 and a summary for the period between 7 October 2022 and 31 March 2023 can be found in table 2. Please see the user guide for further information on types of concern, including definitions.

Figure 9: Total number of referrals to Prevent by month from 7 October 2023 to 31 March 2024 for the top 5 highest types of concern

Source: Prevent Case Management Tracker (PCMT) data provided to the Home Office by Counter-Terrorism Policing (CTPHQ) and Channel Management Information System (CMIS) Home Office data

Table 1: Total number of referrals to Prevent between 7 October 2023 to 31 March 2024, by type of concern

Type of concern	October 2023	November 2023	December 2023	January 2024	February 2024	March 2024
Extreme right-wing	99	131	126	100	128	120
Islamist	103	101	82	73	103	64
Other	5	18	14	14	13	7
Conflicted	108	124	113	106	116	122
No specific extremism issue	0	0	0	0	0	0
High CT risk but no ideology present	0	0	0	1	0	0
Vulnerability present but no ideology or CT risk	188	279	205	194	212	216
No risk, vulnerability or Ideology present	70	57	57	43	58	49
School massacre	15	12	12	12	15	13
Incel	1	3	3	6	9	7
Unspecified	0	0	0	0	0	1

Source: Prevent Case Management Tracker (PCMT) data provided to the Home Office by Counter-Terrorism Policing (CTPHQ) and Channel Management Information System (CMIS) Home Office data extracted on 10 May 2024

Table 2: Total number of referrals to Prevent between 7 October 2022 to 31 March 2023, by type of concern

Type of concern	October 2023	November 2023	December 2023	January 2024	February 2024	March 2024
Extreme right-wing	94	152	89	118	126	166
Islamist	40	78	48	61	61	76
Other	8	6	5	12	7	13
Conflicted	104	132	106	113	109	153
No specific extremism issue	0	0	0	0	0	0
High CT risk but no ideology present	0	0	0	3	0	0
Vulnerability present but no ideology or CT risk	167	244	205	219	205	294
No risk, vulnerability or Ideology present	42	72	37	56	70	68
School massacre	17	15	13	21	9	19
Incel	5	5	6	11	11	4
Unspecified	0	1	0	0	0	0

Source: Prevent Case Management Tracker (PCMT) data provided to the Home Office by Counter-Terrorism Policing (CTPHQ) and Channel Management Information System (CMIS) Home Office data

7. Further information

The user guide provides further details on this release, including the strengths and limitations of the data and the quality assurance processes involved in the production of this release. It also includes a glossary of terms used throughout this release.

7.1 Main changes and additions to the bulletin

Inclusion of data on individuals aged ‘0 to 10’, ‘11 to 15’, ‘16 to 17’ and ‘18 to 21’

From December 2024, the statistical publication will include the breakdown of data for referrals made to Prevent, cases discussed at a Channel Panel and cases adopted as a Channel case by age including a new set of age group categories for the individuals aged ‘0 to 10’, ‘11 to 15’, ‘16 to 17’ and ‘18 to 21’. This includes the period going back to 2015 to 2016 using the new age categories. The new data can also be found in the annual data tables 4, 8, 9, 10 and 16 as at 5 December 2024.

Reporting of trends in Prevent referrals and Channel cases following the terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel on 7 October 2023

In December 2024, the statistical publication included a new section in the report under ‘section 6’ on the trends in Prevent referrals and Channel cases for the time period following the terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel on 7 October 2023 to identify changes to Prevent activity trends after the attack between 7 October 2023 to 31 March 2024.

7.2 Other related publications

Forthcoming publications are pre-announced on the statistics release calendar.

Previous releases of these statistics can be found on the Prevent Programme statistics collection page.

Police Scotland publish statistics on the number of individuals referred to Prevent in Scotland.

7.3 Feedback and enquiries

If you have any feedback or enquiries about this publication, please contact [email protected]

Home Office responsible statistician: Jodie Hargreaves

Press enquiries: 0300 123 3535

The ‘Individuals referred to and supported through the Prevent programme’ release is an Official Statistics output produced to the highest professional standards and free from political interference. It has been produced by statisticians working in the Home Office Analysis and Insight Directorate in accordance with the Home Office’s ‘Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics’ which covers our policy on revisions and other matters. The Chief Statistician, and the Head of Profession, report to the National Statistician with respect to all professional statistical matters and oversees all Home Office Official Statistics products with respect to the Code of Practice, being responsible for their timing, content and methodology.

1. The sector that the individual is signposted to upon exiting the Prevent process may engage other statutory partners to appropriately address the concern for that individual. ↩

2. Case adoption rate here refers to the proportion of referrals which go on to be adopted as a Channel case. ↩

3. The average per month figure has been calculated by dividing the ‘total number of referrals during the time period’ by the ‘total number of months during the time period. ↩