Official Statistics

Modern Slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, Quarter 2 2023 – April to June

Published 10 August 2023

This statistical bulletin provides a summary and breakdown of the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred into the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) or via the Duty to Notify (DtN) process from 1 April to 30 June 2023 (quarter 2). Please also refer to the data tables published alongside this bulletin for further data. To access raw data related to referrals from 2014 onwards, register with UK Data Service. Provisional upcoming statistical release dates can be found in the release calendar.

Frequency of release: Quarterly
Home Office Responsible Statistician: Amy Baxter

1. Key results

• 3,998 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office in from April to June 2023, representing a 16% decrease compared to the preceding quarter (4,739) and a 4% decrease from April to June 2022 (4,161)
• the number of referrals received is the lowest since January to March 2022, following a record high the previous quarter
• 81% (3,242) were sent to the Single Competent Authority (SCA) for consideration and 19% (756) to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA)
• the most common nationalities referred this quarter were Albanian, UK and Vietnamese
• 3,635 reasonable grounds and 2,086 conclusive grounds decisions were issued this quarter; of these, 48% of reasonable grounds and 76% of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
• the Home Office received 1,148 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process, a 19% decrease from the previous quarter (1,420)

Figure 1: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by competent authority

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability. The IECA took on referrals from November 2021 onwards.

2. Introduction

Modern slavery is a term that includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour, as set out in the Modern Slavery Act 2015. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK who come to the attention of authorised first responder organisations are referred to the NRM.

Authorised first responder organisations include local authorities, specified non-governmental organisations (NGOs), police forces and specified government agencies. Adults (aged 18 or above) must consent to being referred to the NRM, whilst children under the age of 18 need not consent to being referred. Adults who were exploited as children can also be referred. As specified in section 52 of the Modern Slavery Act 2015, public authorities in England and Wales have a statutory duty to notify the Home Office when they come across potential victims of modern slavery. This duty is discharged by either referring a child or consenting adult potential victim into the NRM, or by notifying the Home Office via the DtN process if an adult victim does not consent to enter the NRM.

Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions from the Home Office on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds; and conclusive grounds.

During this reporting period, for a positive reasonable grounds decision, the decision maker must agree there are reasonable grounds to believe, based on objective factors, that a person is a victim of modern slavery. Before January 30 2023, this test was whether the decision-maker suspects but cannot prove that the individual is a victim of modern slavery. Adults given a positive reasonable grounds decision can have access to support if they need it (including accommodation, subsistence, legal aid and counselling). Local authorities support children.

From 30 January 2023, disqualification requests could be made for individuals if they are deemed to have met criteria for disqualification from the NRM. These criteria may be based on either grounds of public order, bad faith, or if the individual has already received a support period in the NRM. Individuals may only be disqualified after they have received a positive reasonable grounds decision. For more information, see the published guidance for modern slavery.

Following a positive reasonable grounds decision, a conclusive grounds decision will be made. A positive conclusive grounds decision indicates that, on the balance of probabilities, there is sufficient information to consider the individual is a victim of modern slavery.

Currently, adults with a positive conclusive grounds decision are entitled to at least a further 45 days of support, whilst those with a negative decision receive 9 days of ‘move on’ support as the individual exits the service. See further information regarding the NRM process.

Trained specialists in the Home Office decide who is recognised as a victim of modern slavery. The SCA was launched in April 2019 and the IECA was created in November 2021. Both competent authorities recognise victims of modern slavery for cases referred to the NRM across the UK. See further information regarding both competent authorities.

In June 2021, the Home Office launched a pilot programme, across 10 successful sites, to test alternative models of decision-making for child victims of modern slavery and human trafficking. To enable further testing, 10 additional pilot sites were launched in early 2023. The Home Office are working closely with local authorities and stakeholders to monitor the Pilot and continue to assess next steps. Decisions made by pilot areas, which are then issued by the SCA, are included in the data used for the bulletin. See further information regarding the pilots.

3. National Referral Mechanism (referrals)

3.1 Number of referrals by age group

From April to June 2023, the NRM received 3,998 referrals of potential victims of modern slavery. This represents a 16% decrease in referrals compared to the preceding quarter (4,739) and a 4% decrease from April to June 2022 (4,161). The number of referrals received is the lowest since January to March 2022, following a record high the previous quarter.

Of all referrals this quarter, 51% (2,041) were potential victims claiming exploitation as adults (compared to 55% in the preceding quarter), whilst 44% (1,750) claimed exploitation as children (Figure 2). The age group at exploitation was unknown in 5% of cases (207).

Figure 2: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by age group of exploitation

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability. Excludes referrals where the age group at exploitation is unknown.

3.2 Location of exploitation

Overall, 50% (1,995) of potential victims claimed exploitation in the UK only, matching the proportion of the previous quarter, and 38% (1,508) claimed exploitation overseas only, compared to 36% in the previous quarter (data table 3; Figure 3). Despite falling this quarter, the number of referrals for those claiming exploitation in the UK only have generally followed an upward trend since 2015. Referrals for potential victims claiming overseas exploitation only have fallen since a period of sustained increase since the second half of 2020.

Figure 3: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by location of exploitation

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.

3.3 Referrals by gender and exploitation type

Overall, of the 3,998 potential victims referred in this quarter, 76% (3,034) were male and 24% (960) were female. The proportion of male referrals received in each year has increased annually since the NRM began.

For adult potential victims, 73% (1,496) were male and 27% (542) were female; whilst for child potential victims, 79% (1,380) were male and 21% (370) were female (data table 4).

Figure 4: Number of NRM referrals, by exploitation type and age group, April to June 2023

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. First responders can enter data for unclassified exploitation in a free-text field; for statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.
2. Less commonly reported exploitation types are grouped as ‘Other’ and a full breakdown is provided in data table 4.

Overall, potential victims were most commonly referred for labour exploitation only, which accounted for 28% (1,112) of all referrals. For adult potential victims, labour exploitation was most commonly reported (34%; 703), whereas child potential victims were most often referred for criminal exploitation (42%; 728) (data table 4). See further information on types of exploitation.

From April to June 2023, 387 county lines referrals were flagged, accounting for 10% of all referrals received (data table 15). The majority (76%; 296) of these referrals were for male children.

Throughout 2020, a rapid increase in the identification of ‘county lines’ cases partially drove the increase in referrals for children within the criminal exploitation category. In 2021, cases flagged as county lines remained at this high level, averaging over 500 referrals a quarter. Whilst 2022 saw an average of over 550 referrals each quarter flagged, they rose at a lower rate compared to all referrals from the previous year. In 2023 to date, there has been an average of 456 referrals a quarter. County lines is a term used to describe drug gangs in large cities expanding their reach to small towns. Often, the gangs exploit vulnerable individuals to transport substances, and mobile phone ‘lines’ are used to communicate drug orders. See further information on county lines.

Figure 5: Number of NRM referrals flagged as county lines, by age group at exploitation and gender

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. County lines referrals were classified as a sub-type of labour exploitation prior to October 2019. Since January 2020, a ‘flag’ within the NRM digital casework system identifies county lines referrals.

3.4 Referrals by nationality

The most common nationality referred was Albanian, which accounted for 25% (993) of all potential victims (compared to 31% from January to March 2023). Referrals for Albanian nationals have surpassed UK nationals for the sixth consecutive quarter, though fell to their lowest number since October to December 2021. The second most commonly referred nationality was UK (24%; 970) and the third was Vietnamese (6%; 228) (data table 5).

Referrals for UK nationals have generally grown since July to September 2021, though registered a fall this quarter. The majority (77%; 751) of UK nationals were child potential victims; whilst for Albanian nationals, most (78%; 779) were adult potential victims. For Vietnamese nationals, 55% (126) were adult potential victims and 36% (82) were child potential victims (Figure 6). Potential victims may have no recorded age at exploitation, so are grouped as ‘not specified or unknown’ in the data tables.

Please note, a change to data recording from 1 October 2019 means that NRM data reflects the dual nationality of potential victims in separate categories. To see total counts of a particular nationality, please refer to the data tables. A potential victim’s nationality is based on information provided by the first responder upon referral; however case workers may update this as further information is gathered.

Figure 6: Number of NRM referrals for the most common nationalities of potential victims, by age group at exploitation, April to June 2023

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at exploitation. There are separate categories for dual-nationals.

3.5 Referrals by location of crime investigation

Upon receiving an NRM referral, the SCA determines the responsible geographic police force for investigation based on the information provided on the referral form and transfers the referral. Transfer between police forces can take place as they receive further information, which is reflected in the statistics. Previously, British Transport Police referrals were classed under England, but are now separate in the data tables.

As in previous quarters, most (89%; 3,573) of the NRM referrals were sent to police forces in England, with 5% (184) to Police Scotland, 3% (127) to Welsh police forces and 3% (107) to the Police Service of Northern Ireland (data table 3).

3.6 First responders

From April to June 2023, 49% (1,967) of the referrals came from government agencies, compared to 50% in the previous quarter. Of these referrals, 33% (655) came from Home Office - Immigration Enforcement, compared to 35% from January to March 2023, whilst the majority came from Home Office - UK Visas and Immigration (63%; 1,237) (data table 11; Figure 7). NGO and third-sector organisations accounted for 5% (198) of referrals (data table 12). Police forces and Regional Organised Crime Units (ROCUs) accounted for 23% (938) of NRM referrals from April to June, compared to 22% from January to March 2023 (data table 13). Local authorities accounted for 22% (895) of referrals, mostly for child potential victims (data table 14).

Figure 7: Number of NRM referrals by first responder types, April to June 2023

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at exploitation.

4. National Referral Mechanism (decisions)

4.1 Reasonable grounds decisions

From April to June 2023, 3,635 reasonable grounds decisions were issued by competent authorities, with 48% being positive. More specifically, the SCA issued 2,749 decisions and the IECA issued 886 decisions; 61% (1,685) of reasonable grounds decisions made by the SCA were positive and 6% (54) of reasonable grounds decisions made by the IECA were positive (data tables 17 and 18).

The proportion of positive decisions had remained relatively stable in recent years, with around 9 out of every 10 referrals receiving a positive decision. However, since 30 January 2023, the threshold for a positive reasonable grounds decision changed, which has led to a reduction in the proportion of positive decisions issued. Of the 3,635 reasonable grounds decisions issued this quarter, the proportion of positive reasonable grounds decisions was 25% for adult and 74% for child potential victims (data table 16).

Figure 8: Number of NRM positive and negative reasonable grounds decisions

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the competent authority issued their decision.

The average (median) time taken from referral to reasonable grounds decisions made from April to June 2023 across the competent authorities was 21 days, compared to 6 days from January to March 2023 (data table 19). For reasonable grounds decisions made by the SCA, the average time taken this quarter was 22 days, and the IECA took an average of 16 days (data tables 20 and 21, respectively).

Average wait times for reasonable grounds decisions increased following the change in guidance for such decisions since 30 January 2023 (data table 19). This is likely because the change in guidance required decision makers to have regard to objective factors, and typically a positive decision should not have been issued without supporting evidence or information in addition to a potential victim’s account. Competent authorities therefore, in most cases, had needed to take additional actions to request additional information demonstrating objective factors in order to make a decision throughout this quarter.

It is important to note that decision-making times presented here are for cases that received a reasonable grounds decision in this period and do not reflect the waiting time of all cases within the system. Decision-making times are taken as the difference between the date of the referral receipt and decision date, and do not exclude any periods of time during which referrals may be suspended, withdrawn or previously closed. Hence, actual average wait times will be shorter.

4.2 Disqualifications

From 30 January 2023, disqualification requests could be made by the Home Office for individuals if they are deemed to have met criteria for disqualification from the NRM. From April to June 2023, there were 262 disqualification requests made. Individuals may be disqualified on either grounds of public order, bad faith, or if the individual has already received a support period in the NRM. All of the requests this quarter were on grounds of public order (data table 22).

Upon the individual receiving notice of a disqualification request, there is a period of 10 working days for evidence to be sent to competent authorities to consider while making their decision on whether to disqualify. The expectation is that a disqualification decision will be made as close as possible to a positive reasonable grounds decision. From April to June 2023, there were 159 confirmed disqualifications. All of those confirmed this quarter were on grounds of public order (data table 25). These may be from disqualification requests made prior to this quarter.

4.3 Conclusive grounds decisions

From April to June 2023, 2,086 conclusive grounds decisions were issued, compared to 2,259 from January to March 2023 and 1,368 from April to June 2022. The number of conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter is the second-highest since the NRM began, following the increasing trend since the early months of 2021 due to the recruitment of additional decision makers by the competent authorities. For those issued this quarter, the proportion of positive conclusive grounds decisions overall was 76%. More specifically, the proportion of positive conclusive grounds decisions was 69% for adult and 83% for child potential victims (data table 28).

Of the 2,086 decisions issued this quarter, 1,872 were issued by the SCA and 214 by the IECA (data tables 29 and 30); 80% (1,505) of conclusive grounds decisions issued by the SCA were positive and 35% (74) of conclusive grounds decisions issued by the IECA were positive.

Figure 9: Number of NRM positive and negative conclusive grounds decisions

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the competent authority issued their decision.

The average (median) time taken from referral to conclusive grounds decisions made from April to June 2023 across the competent authorities was 451 days, compared to 565 days from January to March 2023 (data table 31). For conclusive grounds decisions made by the SCA, the average time taken this quarter was 470 days, and the IECA took an average of 414 days (data tables 32 and 33, respectively).

It is important to note that decision-making times presented here are for cases that received a conclusive grounds decision in this period and do not reflect the waiting time of all cases within the system. Decision-making times are taken as the difference between the date of the referral receipt and decision date, and do not exclude any periods of time during which referrals may be suspended, withdrawn or previously closed. Hence, actual average wait times will be shorter.

5. Duty to Notify

Since 1 November 2015, specific public authorities in England and Wales must notify the Home Office via the DtN process of suspected adult victims of modern slavery that do not consent to enter the NRM. During this process, first responders do not collect the potential victim’s personal details.

From April to June 2023, the Home Office received 1,148 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process (data table 34; Figure 10), compared to a record high of 1,420 from January to March 2023. Of these:

• the most referred nationalities were Eritrean (177; 15%), Albanian (166; 14%) and Sudanese (121; 11%) (data table 35)

• the most referred exploitation types were labour (428; 37%), not recorded or unknown (238; 21%) and sexual (169; 15%) (data table 36)

• in terms of first responders, most DtN reports were submitted by Home Office - UK Visas and Immigration UKVI (626; 55%), Home Office - Immigration Enforcement (IE) (83; 7%) and Metropolitan Police Service (71; 6%) (data table 37)

Figure 10: Number of quarterly DtN referrals

Source: SCA

Notes:

1. Potential victims may be reported via DtN and subsequently also referred to the NRM at a later point in time, so these figures should not be combined due to potential double counting.

6. What’s new?

As of the publication for April to June 2023, there have been new additions to the bulletin and associated data tables. Firstly, statistics on the average time to reasonable grounds decisions have been included, and have also been split by competent authority. Secondly, disqualification requests for individuals could first be raised from 30 January 2023, and hence Section 4.2: Disqualifications has been included. This encompasses statistics on both disqualification requests and confirmed disqualifications.

7. Further information

Quality information

All percentages are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point.

It is important to note that the statistics presented in this publication relate to the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred to the NRM or via the DtN process.

These statistics are based on the situation as at 16 March 2023, when an extract was taken from the live management information system. The figures may differ from previous or future reports as new information comes to light and cases update accordingly.

The National Crime Agency (NCA) previously published NRM statistics prior to transferring NRM decision-making responsibilities to the SCA in April 2019 as part of the NRM Reform Programme. Publications prior to July 2019 can be accessed via the NCA website. With this transfer of responsibility, these data are now designated as official statistics and produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Data tables for further analysis are online alongside this bulletin.

This statistical bulletin has been produced to the highest professional standards and is free from political interference. It has been produced by statisticians working in the Home Office Analysis & Insight Directorate under the Home Office’s Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, which covers Home Office policy on revisions and other matters. The Chief Statistician, as Head of Profession, reports to the National Statistician regarding all professional statistical matters and oversees all Home Office National Statistics products regarding the Code, being responsible for their timing, content and methodology.

Changes to data table formatting

As of the publication for July to September 2021, several of the data tables published alongside this bulletin have been reformatted to reduce the number of tables whilst still providing the same data. Table 7 (number of NRM referrals by UK country of responsible police force and age group) which was provided in previous updates has been removed as this information is available in table 3. Tables 16 to 26 provided in previous updates (breaking down referrals received by police forces from England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland by nationality, exploitation type, first responder and age at exploitation) have been removed. This information is now available in tables 4 to 9.

As of the publication for January to March 2022, this bulletin has included both the number of referrals and decisions split by the SCA and IECA. To reflect this, tables 15 and 16 (number of positive and negative NRM reasonable/conclusive grounds decisions made per quarter, by age group at exploitation) in previous releases have been split into an additional 2 tables each for SCA and IECA decisions. Reasonable grounds decision breakdowns are therefore provided as tables 16 to 18, whilst conclusive grounds breakdowns are provided as tables 28 to 30.

As of the publication for April to June 2022, the average time between referrals and conclusive grounds decisions has been split by the SCA and IECA. Due to this, table 21 (average number of days taken to make conclusive grounds decisions) in past releases has been split into an additional 2 tables for SCA and IECA times. Timeliness breakdowns are therefore provided as tables 31 to 33.

As of the publication for October to December 2022, data table 1 (number of NRM referrals per quarter, by age group at exploitation and location of exploitation) in past releases has been split into tables 1 and 2 to more clearly show referrals split by competent authority.

Furthermore, from the publication for October to December 2022, several changes to formatting have been made to improve accessibility. These include adding consistent worksheet titles, adding a notes worksheet and reducing the use of merged cells.

As of the publication for April to June 2023, this bulletin has included statistics on the average time between referrals and reasonable grounds decisions. To reflect this, additional tables have been provided to show overall average time to reasonable grounds decision (table 19), as well as split by the SCA and IECA (tables 20 and 21 respectively).

Moreover, from the publication for April to June 2023, statistics on disqualification requests and confirmed disqualifications have been added to the bulletin. Due to this, tables 22 to 24 have been added for disqualification requests, and tables 25 to 27 have been added for confirmed disqualifications.

Changes to recording of exploitation types

Prior to 1 October 2019, potential victims of modern slavery were recorded as having a single primary exploitation type, grouped into 5 distinct categories: labour, sexual, domestic servitude, organ harvesting or unknown exploitation. Following changes to the way NRM data are collected, recording of exploitation types has changed to give a better picture of the exploitation experienced by potential victims. As a result, for referrals received from 1 October 2019, criminal exploitation is separate to labour exploitation. In addition, potential victims can also be recorded as experiencing multiple exploitation types, so apply caution when comparing exploitation type statistics from October to December 2019 with previous quarters, as the primary exploitation type is unknown. Furthermore, ‘Unknown exploitation’ is no longer a distinct category on the online form that first responders use when submitting a referral; instead, they can provide information for unclassified exploitation in a free-text box field. For statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.

Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force

Police force data provided in associated reference tables are based on the location of the police force that received the NRM referral. Each referral is screened against the criteria below to identify the responsible geographic police force. Once identified, the referral is transferred for action to the relevant Force Intelligence Bureau or stipulated point of receipt within the force. Sometimes, further information is received and processed regarding a referral, which means it will be sent to a different police force. The updated statistics will reflect this. Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force are:

• the force has acted as first responder, or the referral indicates that the force is already involved in the recording/investigation of the potential modern slavery human trafficking offences

• the potential victim has been exploited within the force area

• the potential victim has been exploited abroad, or at an unknown location and the victim’s address at time of referral is within the force area

• the potential victim has been exploited abroad or at an unknown location and they have presented to another first responder within the force area

Other related publications

Latest and previous NRM and DtN statistical releases can be found in the National Referral Mechanism statistics collection.

For statistics on the number of small boat arrivals with NRM referrals, see the Irregular migration to the UK, year ending December 2022 release.

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