Official Statistics

Modern Slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, Quarter 1 2023 – January to March

Updated 11 July 2024

This statistical bulletin provides a summary and breakdown of the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred into the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) or via the Duty to Notify (DtN) process from 1 January to 31 March 2023 (quarter 1). Please also refer to the data tables published alongside this bulletin for further data. To access raw data related to referrals from 2014 onwards, register with UK Data Service. Provisional upcoming statistical release dates can be found in the release calendar.

Frequency of release: Quarterly
Home Office Responsible Statistician: Amy Baxter

1. Key results

• 4,746 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office in January to March 2023, representing a 7% increase compared with October to December 2022 (4,416) and a 26% increase from January to March 2022 (3,773)
• the number of referrals received this quarter is the highest since the NRM began in 2009
• 79% (3,768) were sent to the Single Competent Authority (SCA) for consideration and 21% (978) to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA)
• Albanian nationals were the most commonly referred nationality, followed by UK nationals, and both recorded their highest quarterly numbers since the NRM began
• 3,528 reasonable grounds and 2,275 conclusive grounds decisions were issued this quarter; of these, 58% of reasonable grounds and 75% of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
• the proportion of positive reasonable grounds decisions has decreased from the previous quarter; this is likely to be a result of the change in the test for reasonable grounds decisions
• the Home Office received 1,420 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process, the highest since the DtN began in 2015

Figure 1: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by competent authority

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.
2. The IECA took on referrals from November 2021 onwards.

2. Introduction

Modern slavery is a term that includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour, as set out in the Modern Slavery Act 2015. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK who come to the attention of authorised first responder organisations are referred to the NRM.

Authorised first responder organisations include local authorities, specified non-governmental organisations (NGOs), police forces and specified government agencies. Adults (aged 18 and over) must consent to being referred to the NRM, whilst children aged 17 and under need not consent to being referred. Adults who were exploited as children can also be referred. As specified in section 52 of the Modern Slavery Act 2015, public authorities in England and Wales have a statutory duty to notify the Home Office when they come across potential victims of modern slavery. This duty is discharged by either referring a child or consenting adult potential victim into the NRM, or by notifying the Home Office via the DtN process if an adult victim does not consent to enter the NRM.

Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions from the Home Office on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds and conclusive grounds.

For a positive reasonable grounds decision, the decision maker must agree there are reasonable grounds to believe, based on objective factors, that a person is a victim of modern slavery. More information can be found in the Modern Slavery Statutory Guidance for England and Wales and Non-Statutory Guidance for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Before January 30 2023, this test was whether the decision-maker suspects but cannot prove that the individual is a victim of modern slavery. Adults given a positive reasonable grounds decision can have access to support if they need it (including accommodation, subsistence, legal aid and counselling). Local authorities support children.

Following a positive reasonable grounds decision, a conclusive grounds decision will be made. A positive conclusive grounds decision indicates that, on the balance of probabilities, there is sufficient information to consider that the individual is a victim of modern slavery.

Currently, adults with a positive conclusive grounds decision are entitled to at least a further 45 days of support, whilst those with a negative decision receive 9 days of ‘move on’ support as the individual exits the service. See further information regarding the NRM process.

Trained specialists in the Home Office decide who is recognised as a victim of modern slavery. The SCA was launched in April 2019 and the IECA was created 8 November 2021. Both competent authorities recognise victims of modern slavery for cases referred to the NRM across the UK. See further information regarding both competent authorities.

On 14 June 2021, the Home Office launched a pilot programme to test alternative models of decision-making for child victims of modern slavery and human trafficking. Decisions made by the 10 pilot areas, which are then issued by the SCA, are included in the data used for the bulletin. See further information regarding the pilots.

This publication includes an annex comprising of new analysis to understand how the NRM interacts with asylum, small boats and detention returns. This brings together and builds upon analysis from published Home Office statistics and research reports on NRM referrals from small boats arrivals and detention.

3. National Referral Mechanism (referrals)

3.1 Number of referrals by age group

In January to March 2023, the NRM received 4,746 referrals of potential victims of modern slavery. This represents a 7% increase in referrals compared with October to December 2022 (4,416) and a 26% increase from January to March 2022 (3,773). This quarter saw the highest number of referrals since the NRM began.

Of all referrals this quarter, 55% (2,589) were potential victims claiming exploitation as adults (compared to 51% in the preceding quarter), whilst 40% (1,899) claimed exploitation as children (compared to 44% in the preceding quarter) (Figure 2). The number of potential victims claiming exploitation as adults this quarter is the highest since the NRM began. The age at exploitation was unknown in 5% of cases (258).

Figure 2: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by age group of exploitation

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.
2. Excludes referrals where the age group at exploitation is unknown.

3.2 Location of exploitation

Overall, 51% (2,423) of potential victims claimed exploitation in the UK only, compared to 49% in October to December 2022, and 36% (1,695) claimed exploitation overseas only, compared to 40% in October to December 2022 (data table 3; Figure 3). Following a substantial decrease in the first half of 2020, referrals for those claiming exploitation in the UK only have risen to their highest number since the NRM began. Referrals for potential victims claiming overseas exploitation only also broadly grew over this period, though have fallen from a record high in July to September 2022.

Figure 3: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by location of exploitation

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.

3.3 Referrals by gender and exploitation type

Overall, of the 4,746 potential victims referred in this quarter, 77% (3,657) were male and 23% (1,088) were female. Both the number of male and female potential victims rose to their highest for any quarter since the NRM began. The proportion of male referrals received in each year has increased annually since the NRM began.

For adult potential victims, 74% (1,920) were male and 26% (669) were female; whilst for child potential victims, 81% (1,539) were male and 19% (359) were female (data table 4).

Figure 4: Number of NRM referrals, by exploitation type and age group

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. First responders can enter data for unclassified exploitation in a free-text field; for statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.
2. Less commonly reported exploitation types are grouped as ‘Other’ and a full breakdown is provided in data table 4.

Overall, potential victims were most commonly referred for criminal exploitation only, which accounted for 29% (1,362) of all referrals. For adult potential victims, labour exploitation was most commonly reported (31%; 811), whereas child potential victims were most often referred for criminal exploitation (44%; 836) (data table 4). See further information on types of exploitation.

Throughout 2020, a rapid increase in the identification of ‘county lines’ cases partially drove the increase in referrals for children within the criminal exploitation category. In 2021 and 2022, cases flagged as county lines remained at this high level, averaging over 550 referrals a quarter in 2022. However, in 2022 they rose at a lower rate than all referrals compared to the previous year. County lines is a term used to describe drug gangs in large cities expanding their reach to small towns. Often, the gangs exploit vulnerable individuals to transport substances, and mobile phone ‘lines’ are used to communicate drug orders. See further information on county lines.

In January to March 2023, 409 county lines referrals were flagged, accounting for 9% of all referrals received (data table 15). The majority (70%; 288) of these referrals were for male children. Referrals flagged as county lines were at their lowest number for any quarter since January to March 2020.

Figure 5: Number of NRM referrals flagged as county lines, by age group at exploitation and gender

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. County lines referrals were classified as a sub-type of labour exploitation prior to October to December 2019. Since January 2020, a ‘flag’ within the NRM digital casework system identifies county lines referrals.

3.4 Referrals by nationality

The most common nationality referred was Albanian, which accounted for 31% (1,452) of all potential victims (compared to 27% in October to December 2022). Referrals for Albanian nationals have reached their highest number and proportion since the NRM began, and have surpassed UK nationals for the fifth consecutive quarter. The second most commonly referred nationality was UK (25%; 1,163) and the third was Sudanese (5%; 226) (data table 5).

Referrals for UK nationals have grown since July to September 2021 and have reached their highest quarterly figure since the NRM began. The number of Sudanese nationals referred has broadly grown since January to March 2022, and has overtaken Eritrean nationals as the third most commonly referred nationality to the NRM this quarter. The majority (75%; 877) of UK nationals were child potential victims; whilst for Albanian nationals, most (81%; 1174) were adult potential victims. For Sudanese nationals, 42% (95) were adult potential victims and 55% (124) were child potential victims (Figure 6).

Please note, a change to data recording from 1 October 2019 means that NRM data reflects the dual nationality of potential victims in separate categories. To see total counts of a particular nationality, please refer to the data tables. A potential victim’s nationality is based on information provided by the first responder upon referral; however case workers may update this as further information is gathered.

Figure 6: Number of NRM referrals for the most common nationalities of potential victims, by age group at exploitation

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at exploitation.
2. There are separate categories for dual-nationals.

3.5 Referrals by location of crime investigation

Upon receiving an NRM referral, the SCA determines the responsible geographic police force for investigation based on the information provided on the referral form and transfers the referral. Transfer between police forces can take place as they receive further information, which is reflected in the statistics. Previously, British Transport Police referrals were classed under England, but are now separate in the data tables.

As in previous quarters, most (91%; 4,296) of the NRM referrals were sent to police forces in England, with 3% (153) to Police Scotland, 3% (165) to Welsh police forces and 3% (127) to the Police Service of Northern Ireland (data table 3).

2.6 First responders

In January to March 2023, 50% (2,374) of the referrals came from government agencies, compared to 48% in October to December 2022. Of these referrals, 35% (838) came from Home Office Immigration Enforcement, compared to 41% in October to December 2022, whilst a large proportion came from UK Visas and Immigration (62%; 1,475) (data table 11; Figure 7). NGO and third-sector organisations accounted for 5% (249) of referrals (data table 12). Police forces and Regional Organised Crime Units (ROCUs) accounted for 22% (1,043) of NRM referrals in January to March 2023, compared to 23% in October to December 2022 (data table 13). Local authorities accounted for 23% (1,080) of referrals, mostly for child potential victims (data table 14). The number of referrals that came from local authorities this quarter was its highest since the NRM began.

Figure 7: Number of NRM referrals by first responder types

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at exploitation.

4. National Referral Mechanism (decisions)

4.1 Reasonable grounds decisions

In January to March 2023, 3,528 reasonable grounds decisions were issued by competent authorities, with 58% being positive. More specifically, the SCA issued 2,840 and the IECA issued 688; 61% (1,720) of reasonable grounds decisions made by the SCA were positive and 50% (341) of reasonable grounds decisions made by the IECA were positive (data tables 17 and 18).

The proportion of positive decisions made by competent authorities has remained relatively stable in recent years, with around 9 out of every 10 referrals receiving a positive decision. However, since 30 January 2023, the threshold for a positive reasonable grounds decision changed, which has led to a reduction in the proportion of positive decisions issued. Of the 3,528 reasonable grounds decisions issued this quarter, the proportion of positive reasonable grounds decisions was 49% for adult and 76% for child potential victims (data table 16).

Figure 8: Number of NRM positive and negative reasonable grounds decisions

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the competent authority issued their decision.

4.2 Conclusive grounds decisions

In January to March 2023, 2,275 conclusive grounds decisions were issued, compared to 2,086 in October to December 2022 and 1,202 in January to March 2022. The number of conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter is the highest since the NRM began, following the increasing trend since the early months of 2021 due to the recruitment of additional decision makers by the competent authorities. For those issued this quarter, the proportion of positive conclusive grounds decisions overall was 75%. More specifically, the proportion of positive decisions was 67% for adult and 87% for child potential victims (data table 19).

Of the 2,275 decisions issued this quarter, 2,028 were issued by the SCA and 247 by the IECA (data tables 20 and 21); 80% (1,622) of conclusive grounds decisions issued by the SCA were positive and 37% (92) of conclusive grounds decisions issued by the IECA were positive.

Figure 9: Number of NRM positive and negative conclusive grounds decisions

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the competent authority issued their decision.

The average (median) time taken from referral to conclusive grounds decisions made in January to March 2023 across the competent authorities was 566 days, compared to 641 days in October to December 2022 (data table 22). For conclusive grounds decisions made by the SCA, the average time taken this quarter was 654 days, and the IECA took an average of 352 days (data tables 23 and 24, respectively). Decision-making times for the IECA are currently much shorter than the SCA; this reflects the IECA having fewer cases assigned to decision-makers in their backlog compared to the SCA, given the IECA have only taken on new referrals since November 2021.

It is important to note that the decision-making times presented here are for cases that received a conclusive grounds decision from the competent authority in this period and do not reflect the waiting time of all cases within the system. Some cases that received decisions in this period may have taken longer to reach a decision than those in previous quarters.

5. Duty to Notify

Since 1 November 2015, specific public authorities in England and Wales must notify the Home Office via the DtN process of suspected adult victims of modern slavery that do not consent to enter the NRM. During this process, first responders do not collect the potential victim’s personal details.

In January to March 2023, the Home Office received 1,420 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process (data table 25; Figure 10), compared to 1,307 in October to December 2022. The number for this quarter is the highest ever recorded. Of these:

• the most referred nationalities were Albanian (364; 26%), Eritrean (169; 12%) and Sudanese (141; 10%) (data table 26)

• the most referred exploitation types were labour (470; 33%), not recorded or unknown (368; 26%) and criminal (186; 13%) (data table 27)

• in terms of first responders, most DtN reports were submitted by Home Office - UK Visas and Immigration UKVI (801; 56%), Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority GLAA (122; 9%) and Home Office - Immigration Enforcement IE (85; 6%) (data table 28)

Figure 10: Number of quarterly DtN referrals

Source: SCA

Notes:

1. Potential victims may be reported via DtN and subsequently also referred to the NRM at a later point in time, so these figures should not be combined due to potential double counting.

5. Further information

Quality information

All percentages are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point.

It is important to note that the statistics presented in this publication relate to the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred to the NRM or via the DtN process.

These statistics are based on the situation as at 16 April 2023, when an extract was taken from the live management information system. The figures may differ from previous or future reports as new information comes to light and cases update accordingly.

The National Crime Agency (NCA) previously published NRM statistics prior to transferring NRM decision-making responsibilities to the SCA in April 2019 as part of the NRM Reform Programme. Publications prior to July 2019 can be accessed via the NCA website. With this transfer of responsibility, these data are now designated as official statistics and produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Data tables for further analysis are online alongside this bulletin.

This statistical bulletin has been produced to the highest professional standards and is free from political interference. It has been produced by statisticians working in the Home Office Analysis & Insight Directorate under the Home Office’s Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, which covers Home Office policy on revisions and other matters. The Chief Statistician, as Head of Profession, reports to the National Statistician regarding all professional statistical matters and oversees all Home Office National Statistics products regarding the Code, being responsible for their timing, content and methodology.

Changes to data table formatting

As of July to September 2021, several of the data tables published alongside this bulletin have been reformatted to reduce the number of tables whilst still providing the same data. Table 7 (number of NRM referrals by UK country of responsible police force and age group) which was provided in previous updates has been removed as this information is available in table 3. Tables 16 to 26 provided in previous updates (breaking down referrals received by police forces from England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland by nationality, exploitation type, first responder and age at exploitation) have been removed. This information is now available in tables 4 to 9.

As of January to March 2022, this bulletin has included both the number of referrals and decisions split by the SCA and IECA. To reflect this, tables 15 and 16 (number of positive and negative NRM reasonable/conclusive grounds decisions made per quarter, by age group at exploitation) in previous releases have been split into an additional 2 tables each for SCA and IECA decisions. Reasonable grounds decision breakdowns are therefore provided as tables 16 to 18, whilst conclusive grounds breakdowns are provided as tables 19 to 21.

As of April to June 2022, the average time between referrals and conclusive grounds decisions has been split by the SCA and IECA. Due to this, table 21 (average number of days taken to make conclusive grounds decisions) in past releases has been split into an additional 2 tables for SCA and IECA times. Timeliness breakdowns are therefore provided as tables 22 to 24. Tables 22 to 25 in previous releases are provided as tables 25 to 28.

As of October to December 2022, data table 1 (number of NRM referrals per quarter, by age group at exploitation and location of exploitation) in past releases has been split into tables 1 and 2 to more clearly show referrals split by competent authority.

Furthermore, from October to December 2022, several changes to formatting have been made to improve accessibility. These include adding consistent worksheet titles, adding a notes worksheet and reducing the use of merged cells.

Changes to recording of exploitation types

Prior to 1 October 2019, potential victims of modern slavery were recorded as having a single primary exploitation type, grouped into 5 distinct categories: labour, sexual, domestic servitude, organ harvesting or unknown exploitation. Following changes to the way NRM data are collected, recording of exploitation types has changed to give a better picture of the exploitation experienced by potential victims. As a result, for referrals received from 1 October 2019, criminal exploitation is separate to labour exploitation. In addition, potential victims can also be recorded as experiencing multiple exploitation types, so apply caution when comparing exploitation type statistics from October to December 2019 with previous quarters, as the primary exploitation type is unknown. Furthermore, ‘Unknown exploitation’ is no longer a distinct category on the online form that first responders use when submitting a referral; instead, they can provide information for unclassified exploitation in a free-text box field. For statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.

Changes to the naming of ‘police’ first responder type

Prior to 2022, ROCUs had been included under the ‘police’ first responder type, and from this point the name has been changed to ‘police and ROCUs’ to more clearly reflect their inclusion.

Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force

Police force data provided in associated reference tables are based on the location of the police force that received the NRM referral. Each referral is screened against the criteria below to identify the responsible geographic police force. Once identified, the referral is transferred for action to the relevant Force Intelligence Bureau or stipulated point of receipt within the force. Sometimes, further information is received and processed regarding a referral, which means it will be sent to a different police force. The updated statistics will reflect this. Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force are:

• the force has acted as first responder, or the referral indicates that the force is already involved in the recording/investigation of the potential modern slavery human trafficking offences
• the potential victim has been exploited within the force area
• the potential victim has been exploited abroad, or at an unknown location and the victim’s address at time of referral is within the force area
• the potential victim has been exploited abroad or at an unknown location and they have presented to another first responder within the force area

Other related publications

Latest and previous NRM and DtN statistical releases can be found in the National Referral Mechanism statistics collection.

For statistics on the number of small boat arrivals with NRM referrals, see the Irregular migration to the UK collection.

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