Official Statistics

Modern Slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, quarter 1 2024 – January to March

Updated 10 May 2024

This statistical bulletin provides a summary and breakdown of the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred into the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) or via the Duty to Notify (DtN) process from 1 January to 31 March 2024 (quarter 1). Please refer to the data tables published alongside this bulletin for additional data. Raw data related to referrals from 2014 onwards is available from the UK Data Service. Future release dates for these statistics are published in the Government statistics release calendar.

Frequency of release: Quarterly
Home Office Responsible Statistician: Stuart Prince

1. Key results

• 4,524 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office from January to March 2024, representing a 9% increase compared to the period from October to December 2023 (4,134) and a 5% decrease compared to the period from January to March 2023 (4,738)
• 73% (3,291) of potential victims were male and 27% (1,226) were female; this is the highest quarterly number of referrals for females since the NRM began
• 80% (3,628) of referrals were sent to the Single Competent Authority (SCA) for consideration and 20% (896) to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA)
• the most common nationalities referred this quarter were UK (24%; 1,105), Albanian (17%; 791) and Vietnamese (11%; 493)
• 5,161 reasonable grounds and 3,893 conclusive grounds decisions were issued this quarter; of these, 55% of reasonable grounds and 48% of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
• the number of reasonable grounds decisions and conclusive grounds decisions issued by the competent authorities were both at their highest for a quarter since the NRM began
• the Home Office received 1,125 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process

Figure 1: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by competent authority

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability. The IECA took on referrals from November 2021 onwards.

2. Introduction

Modern slavery is a term that includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour, as set out in the Modern Slavery Act 2015. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK who come to the attention of authorised first responder organisations are referred to the NRM.

Authorised first responder organisations include local authorities, specified non-governmental organisations (NGOs), police forces and specified government agencies. Adults (aged 18 or above) must consent to being referred to the NRM, whilst children aged 17 and under need not consent to being referred. Adults who were exploited as children can also be referred. As specified in section 52 of the Modern Slavery Act 2015, public authorities in England and Wales have a statutory duty to notify the Home Office when they come across potential victims of modern slavery. This duty is discharged by either referring a child or consenting adult potential victim into the NRM, or by notifying the Home Office via the DtN process if an adult victim does not consent to enter the NRM.

Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions from the Home Office on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds, and conclusive grounds (figure 2).

Before 30 January 2023, the reasonable grounds test was whether the decision maker suspects but cannot prove that the individual is a victim of modern slavery. From 30 January 2023, that test was amended so that the decision maker must agree there are reasonable grounds to believe, based on objective factors, that a person is a victim of modern slavery. From 10 July 2023, the test was further amended, such that the test remains an objective one, whereby the decision maker must agree with the statement that there are “reasonable grounds to believe that a person is a victim of modern slavery”. This takes the victim’s account into consideration and any other relevant information, and considers whether, in the circumstances of the case, it is reasonable to expect supporting information to be available.

From 30 January 2023, disqualification requests could be made for individuals if they are deemed to have met criteria for disqualification from the NRM. These criteria may be based on either grounds of public order, bad faith, or if the individual has already received a support period in the NRM. Individuals may only be disqualified after they have received a positive reasonable grounds decision. Public order disqualification decisions were paused from 31 July 2023 to 8 January 2024 while this policy was updated. For more information, see the published guidance for modern slavery.

Following a positive reasonable grounds decision, a conclusive grounds decision will be made. A positive conclusive grounds decision indicates that, on the balance of probabilities, there is sufficient information to consider the individual is a victim of modern slavery.

Figure 2: Victim identification flowchart (simplified)

Source: Home Office

Notes:

1. The DtN is only open to adults in England and Wales (as opposed to the NRM which covers the UK). Consent is not needed for children to enter the NRM.
2. Decisions may be reconsidered, which may mean some cases are reopened after being closed.
3. Some cases may not follow this flowchart. For instance, some may be suspended, and others may be devolved pilot cases which can receive combined reasonable and conclusive grounds decisions.

Currently, adults with a positive reasonable grounds decision supported by the Modern Slavery Victim Care Contract (MSVCC) in England and Wales are entitled to accommodation where necessary, financial support and access to a support worker. Victims in MSVCC support with a positive conclusive grounds decision are entitled to a further 45 days of support at least, whilst those with a negative decision receive 9 days of ‘move on’ support as the individual exits the service. See further information regarding the NRM process.

Trained specialists in the Home Office decide who is recognised as a victim of modern slavery. The SCA was launched in April 2019 and the IECA was created in November 2021. Both competent authorities recognise victims of modern slavery for cases referred to the NRM across the UK. See further information regarding both competent authorities.

In June 2021, the Home Office launched a pilot programme, across 10 successful sites, to test alternative models of decision-making for child victims of modern slavery and human trafficking. To enable further testing, 10 additional pilot sites were launched in early 2023. The Home Office are working closely with local authorities and stakeholders to monitor the pilot and continue to assess next steps. Decisions made by pilot areas, which are then issued by the SCA, are included in the data used for the bulletin. Statistics on the devolved decision-making pilot for children were published in November 2023. See further information regarding the pilots.

3. National Referral Mechanism (referrals)

3.1 Overall

From January to March 2024, the NRM received 4,524 referrals of potential victims of modern slavery. This represents a 9% increase in referrals compared to the preceding quarter (4,134) and a 5% decrease from January to March 2023 (4,738).

There have been a number of changes which have collectively raised the profile of modern slavery since 2014. These are likely to have increased awareness of modern slavery and the NRM and, alongside potential increases in exploitation, may have driven the increase in overall referrals. However, it is not possible to point to a main driver due to the hidden nature of modern slavery.

3.2 Age group

The Home Office records demographic data about individuals referred into the NRM, as well as information about the exploitation they have potentially suffered. This includes the age at referral, as well as the individual’s age at the time of the potential exploitation. To note, this is the first quarter where breakdowns by age at referral have been included in the bulletin, replacing breakdowns by age at exploitation. Statistics on age at exploitation can still be found in the data tables.

Of all referrals this quarter, 68% (3,068) were adults at age of referral (compared to 62% in the preceding quarter), whilst 32% (1,451) were children (compared to 38% in the preceding quarter) (figure 3). The age at referral was unknown in 5 cases.

Figure 3: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by age of referral

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.
2. Excludes referrals where the age at referral is unknown.

3.3 Location of exploitation

Potential victims may report that their exploitation has occurred either in the UK, overseas, or a combination of both. Overall, 47% (2,108) of potential victims claimed that they were exploited exclusively in the UK, compared to 50% from October to December 2023, and 39% (1,783) claimed that they were exploited exclusively overseas, compared to 35% from October to December 2023 (data table 3; figure 4).

The number of referrals for those claiming they were exploited exclusively in the UK has generally followed an upward trend since 2015. Referrals for potential victims claiming that they were exploited exclusively overseas have broadly fallen, until this quarter, since a record high from July to September 2022.

Figure 4: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by location of exploitation

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.

For those reporting their exploitation occurred in the UK, referrals may also name towns and cities where their exploitation is reported to have occurred. These are grouped into counties at the Home Office. Here, ‘counties’ refer to lieutenancy areas, which are the boundaries used because of the scale at which the data is collected. Further information can be found in the ‘Quality information’ section.

From January to March 2024, the UK county where exploitation was most commonly reported as occurring in was Greater London (589). This was followed by West Midlands (190) and Greater Manchester (141). Referrals may report multiple places of exploitation, so it is not advised to combine statistics for multiple counties.

Figure 5: Number of NRM referrals reporting exploitation in UK counties

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Includes referrals which have reported exploitation in the UK, or a combination of the UK and overseas.
2. It is not advised to combine statistics for multiple counties as each referral may report multiple places of exploitation.
3. May not capture all places of exploitation if they are not recorded on referral forms.

For those reporting their exploitation has occurred overseas, referrals may also name countries and regions where this is reported to have occurred. From January to March 2024, the overseas country where exploitation was most commonly reported to have occurred in was Libya (531). This was followed by Albania (419) and Vietnam (213). Referrals may report multiple places of exploitation, so it is not advised to combine statistics for multiple countries.

Figure 6: Number of NRM referrals reporting exploitation in overseas countries

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Country borders do not necessarily reflect the UK Government’s official position.
2. Includes referrals which have reported exploitation overseas, or a combination of the UK and overseas.
3. It is not advised to combine statistics for multiple countries as referrals may report multiple places of exploitation.
4. May not capture all places of exploitation if they are not recorded on referral forms.

3.4 Gender

Overall, of the 4,524 potential victims referred in this quarter, 73% (3,291) were male and 27% (1,226) were female. The number of female victims rose to their highest number for a quarter since the NRM began, whilst the number of male potential victims has fluctuated since a record high from January to March 2023. The proportion of female referrals has increased in each quarter from July to September 2022.

For adults (at age of referral), 70% (2,155) were male and 30% (909) were female; whilst for children, 78% (1,133) were male and 22% (315) were female (data table 4).

3.5 Exploitation type

Figure 7: Number of NRM referrals, by exploitation type and age at referral

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. First responders can enter data for unclassified exploitation in a free-text field; for statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.
2. Less commonly reported exploitation types are grouped as ‘Other’ and a full breakdown is provided in data table 4.

There are a variety of ways potential victims can be exploited as set out in the modern slavery statutory guidance. From October 2019, the recording categories were changed, to include more types and combinations of exploitation. Statistics prior to this should therefore not be compared, and more information can be found in the ‘revisions’ section.

Overall, potential victims were most commonly referred for labour exploitation only, which accounted for 28% (1,283) of all referrals. For adults (at age of referral), labour exploitation was most commonly reported (36%; 1,117), whereas children were most often referred for criminal exploitation (52%; 755) (data table 4). See further information on types of exploitation.

Exploitation types typically have gendered patterns. For example, from January to March 2024, males most often reported criminal (33%; 1,091) or labour exploitation (34%; 1,121), whereas females most often reported sexual exploitation (30%; 370).

Referrals may be flagged as county lines cases by decision makers, which is most commonly a subset of criminal exploitation. County lines is a term used to describe drug gangs in large cities expanding their reach to small towns. Often, the gangs exploit vulnerable individuals to transport substances, and mobile phone ‘lines’ are used to communicate drug orders. See further information on county lines.

From January to March 2024, 425 county lines referrals were flagged, accounting for 9% of all referrals received (data table 19). The majority (77%; 326) of these referrals were for male children (at age of referral).

Referrals flagged as county lines partly drove the increase in referrals for children within the criminal exploitation category from 2020 to 2022. In 2022, there were an average of over 580 referrals flagged each quarter. In 2023, the number of referrals flagged fell to an average of around 430 each quarter, and also fell as a proportion of all referrals (from 14% in 2022 to 10% in 2023).

Figure 8: Number of NRM referrals flagged as county lines, by age at referral and gender

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. County lines referrals were classified as a sub-type of labour exploitation prior to October 2019. Since January 2020, a ‘flag’ within the NRM digital casework system identifies county lines referrals.

3.6 Nationality

There were 192 nationalities represented by referrals this quarter, which includes dual nationals as separate categories. The most common nationality referred was UK, which accounted for 24% (1,105) of all potential victims (compared to 28% from October to December 2023). The second most commonly referred nationality was Albanian (17%; 791) and the third was Vietnamese (11%; 493) (data table 7). This was the highest number of Vietnamese nationals referred in a quarter since the NRM began.

The majority (73%; 806) of UK nationals were children (at age of referral); whilst for Albanian nationals, most (95%; 755) were adults. For Vietnamese nationals, 75% (372) were adults and 24% (120) were children (figure 9). Potential victims may have no recorded age at referral, so are grouped as ‘not specified or unknown’ in the data tables.

The UK often supports efforts to tackle modern slavery upstream in key source countries. Between 2016 and 2023, the Home Office has spent over £40 million through the Modern Slavery Fund to combat modern slavery overseas and reduce the threat of human trafficking to the UK, including from Albania and Vietnam.

Please note, a change to data recording from October 2019 means that NRM data reflects the dual nationality of potential victims in separate categories. To see total counts of a particular nationality, please refer to the data tables. A potential victim’s nationality is based on information provided by the first responder upon referral; however case workers may update this as further information is gathered.

Figure 9: Number of NRM referrals for the most common nationalities of potential victims, by age at referral

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at referral.
2. There are separate categories for dual-nationals.

3.7 Location of crime investigation

Upon receiving an NRM referral, the SCA determines the responsible geographic police force for investigation based on the information provided on the referral form and transfers the referral. Transfer between police forces can take place as they receive further information, which is reflected in the statistics.

As in previous quarters, most (88%; 3,998) of the NRM referrals were sent to police forces in England, with 5% (246) to Police Scotland, 3% (131) to Welsh police forces and 3% (147) to the Police Service of Northern Ireland (data table 3).

3.8 First responders

From January to March 2024, 49% (2,238) of the referrals came from government agencies, compared to 46% from October to December 2023.

Of these referrals, most came from UK Visas and Immigration (65%; 1,454), whilst 31% (685) came from Home Office Immigration Enforcement, compared to 34% from October to December 2023 (data table 15; figure 10).

NGO and third-sector organisations accounted for 5% (234) of referrals (data table 16). Police forces and Regional Organised Crime Units (ROCUs) accounted for 23% (1,020) of NRM referrals from January to March 2024, compared to 24% from October to December 2023 (data table 17). Local authorities accounted for 23% (1,030) of referrals, mostly for children (at age of referral) (data table 18).

Law enforcement efforts often focus on modern slavery which may lead to an increase in NRM referrals. The National Crime Agency (NCA) co-ordinate Project Aidant, which was established in 2017 as a series of targeted law enforcement intensifications aimed at tackling modern slavery threats. Operations are run nationally, with 4 intensifications being undertaken each calendar year that involve local police forces working alongside partner agencies to focus on vulnerability, exploitation and modern slavery.

Figure 10: Number of NRM referrals by first responder types

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at referral.

4. National Referral Mechanism (decisions)

4.1 Reasonable grounds decisions

From January to March 2024, 5,161 reasonable grounds decisions were issued, the highest quarterly number issued since the NRM began, with 55% being positive. Of these, the SCA issued 4,257 decisions and the IECA issued 904 decisions; 60% (2,569) of reasonable grounds decisions made by the SCA were positive and 32% (293) of reasonable grounds decisions made by the IECA were positive (data tables 21 and 22).

The proportion of positive decisions had remained relatively stable in recent years, with around 9 out of every 10 referrals receiving a positive decision. However, from 30 January 2023, the threshold for a positive reasonable grounds decision was updated, which led to a reduction in the proportion of positive decisions issued. On 10 July 2023, the threshold was revised once more, and for further information see the published guidance.

Of the 5,161 reasonable grounds decisions issued this quarter, the proportion of positive reasonable grounds decisions was 42% for adults (at age of referral) and 78% for children (data table 20).

Figure 11: Number of NRM positive and negative reasonable grounds decisions

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the competent authority issued their decision.

The average (median) time taken from referral to reasonable grounds decisions made from January to March 2024 across the competent authorities was 21 days, compared to 42 days from October to December 2023 (data table 25). For reasonable grounds decisions made by the SCA, the average time taken this quarter was 28 days, and the IECA took an average of 5 days (data tables 26 and 27, respectively).

Average wait times for reasonable grounds decisions had been increasing from the period between April to June 2023 following the change in guidance for such decisions since 30 January 2023 but have fallen again since the period from October to December 2023. While average wait times have fallen since this period, they are still above pre-guidance change levels (data table 25). As a result of the change in guidance, decision makers had to gather additional evidence and information to demonstrate objective factors supporting the referral, leading to higher average wait times for decisions.

It is important to note that decision-making times presented here are for cases that received a reasonable grounds decision in this period regardless of when they were referred into the NRM. Decision-making times are taken as the difference between the date of the referral receipt and decision date, and do not exclude any periods of time during which referrals may be suspended, withdrawn or previously closed. Hence, actual average wait times for these potential victims will be shorter.

In addition, cases where the decision-making is devolved to local authorities as part of a pilot for children are included as SCA cases for these statistics. Decisions made as part of this pilot operate at different timescales, with guidance outlining that reasonable grounds decisions should be made no later than 45 days from the date the pilot area receives the referral. As a result, these cases increase the overall average time taken to make a reasonable grounds decision. More information can be found in the published guidance.

4.2 Disqualifications

From 30 January 2023, disqualification requests could be made by the Home Office for individuals if they are deemed to have met criteria for disqualification from the NRM (either on the basis of bad faith, public order or given the person would benefit from multiple recovery periods). From January to March 2024, 78 disqualification requests were made. Of these, 88% (69) were on grounds of public order and 12% (9) were on grounds of bad faith (data table 28).

Upon the individual receiving notice of a disqualification request, there is a period of 10 working days for evidence to be sent to competent authorities to consider while making their decision on whether to disqualify. The expectation is that a disqualification decision will be made as close as possible to a positive reasonable grounds decision. From January to March 2024, there were 49 confirmed disqualifications. Of these, 86% (42) were on grounds of public order and 14% (7) were on grounds of bad faith (data table 31). Public order disqualification decisions were paused from July 31 to January 8 while this policy was updated.

4.3 Conclusive grounds decisions

From January to March 2024, 3,893 conclusive grounds decisions were issued, compared to 3,107 from October to December 2023 and 2,245 from January to March 2023. The number of conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter is the highest since the NRM began. This follows the increasing trend since the early months of 2021, with the number of conclusive ground decisions issued increasing due to the recruitment of additional decision makers by the competent authorities and significant productivity and efficiency efforts.

For those issued this quarter, the proportion of positive conclusive grounds decisions was 48%, the lowest for a quarter since the NRM began. More specifically, the proportion of positive conclusive grounds decisions was 34% for adults (at age of referral) and 82% for children (data table 34).

Of the 3,893 decisions issued this quarter, 1,929 were issued by the SCA and 1,964 by the IECA (data tables 35 and 36); 75% (1,445) of conclusive grounds decisions issued by the SCA were positive and 21% (407) of conclusive grounds decisions issued by the IECA were positive.

Figure 12: Number of NRM positive and negative conclusive grounds decisions

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the competent authority issued their decision.

The average (median) time taken from referral to conclusive grounds decisions made from January to March 2024 across the competent authorities was 491 days, compared to 535 days from October to December 2023 (data table 37). For conclusive grounds decisions made by the SCA, the average time taken this quarter was 523 days, and the IECA took an average of 484 days (data tables 38 and 39, respectively).

It is important to note that decision-making times presented here are for cases that received a conclusive grounds decision in this period and do not reflect the waiting time of all cases within the system. Decision-making times are taken as the difference between the date of the referral receipt and decision date, and do not exclude any periods of time during which referrals may be suspended, withdrawn or previously closed. Hence, actual average wait times for these potential victims will be shorter.

4.3 Reconsiderations

Individuals may request reconsideration of their decision after being issued by the competent authorities. This could be if additional evidence becomes available that could demonstrate that the individual is a victim of modern slavery or there are specific concerns that a decision has not been made in line with published guidance. For more information, see the published guidance.

From January to March 2024, there were 275 reconsideration requests made to the competent authorities. Of these, 191 were for reasonable grounds decisions, 83 were for conclusive grounds decisions and one was for a disqualification decision (data table 40).

From January to March 2024, 65% (128) of reasonable grounds decisions which were reconsidered went on to receive a positive outcome. For conclusive grounds decisions, 51% (46) went on to receive a positive outcomes. For disqualification decisions, none were overturned (data table 43). These outcomes may be from reconsideration requests made in previous quarters.

Both reconsideration requests and outcomes refer to the most recent instance where the competent authority has agreed to reconsider at each decision stage for an individual. Hence, an individual will only be shown to have a maximum of one reasonable grounds request and outcome, and one conclusive grounds or disqualification request and outcome.

Reconsideration requests may also be for positive or hybrid decisions, which are included in these statistics. A hybrid decision is where the potential victim has reported multiple incidents of exploitation, where at least one incident is accepted and one or more are not accepted. In a small number of cases, reconsideration data contains inaccurately recorded fields, so apply caution when using. For more information, see the ‘Quality information’ section.

5. Duty to Notify

Since 1 November 2015, specific public authorities in England and Wales must notify the Home Office via the DtN process of suspected adult victims of modern slavery that do not consent to enter the NRM. During this process, first responders may not collect the potential victim’s personal details.

From January to March 2024, the Home Office received 1,125 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process (data table 46; figure 13), compared to 1,044 from October to December 2023. Of these:

• the most referred nationalities were Vietnamese (14%; 157), Albanian (13%; 144) and Eritrean (9%; 104) (data table 47)
• the most referred exploitation types were labour (39%; 438), sexual (17%; 188) and not recorded or unknown (16%; 175) (data table 48)
• in terms of first responders, most DtN reports were submitted by Home Office - UK Visas and Immigration UKVI (51%; 569), Metropolitan Police Service (10%; 118) and Home Office - UK Border Force UKBF (8%; 87) (data table 49)

Figure 13: Number of quarterly DtN referrals

Source: SCA

Notes:

1. Potential victims may be reported via DtN and subsequently also referred to the NRM at a later point in time, so these figures should not be combined due to potential double counting.

6. What’s new?

As of this publication, statistics on the age of exploitation have been replaced in the bulletin with statistics on the age of referral. Statistics on age of exploitation can still be found in the data tables. Moreover, the sections on ‘overall’ referrals and ‘age group’, as well as ‘gender’ and ‘exploitation type’ have been split out.

Additionally, more granular information has been provided in the ‘location of exploitation’ section, which consist of reported UK counties and overseas countries.

7. Quality information

These statistics are produced in accordance with quality requirements of the Code of Practice for Statistics. It uses guidance published on the Government Analysis Function, which considers 5 aspects of quality:

• relevance
• accuracy and reliability
• timeliness and punctuality
• accessibility and clarity
• coherence and comparability

This section also discusses data sources, production and quality assurance of statistics.

Relevance

NRM and DtN statistics are used to build a picture of the potential scale of potential victims of modern slavery in the UK. As the data relates to potential victims identified by first responders and referred into the NRM and DtN, it does not capture all victims of modern slavery in the UK. There is likely to be a large number of unidentified potential victims given the hidden nature of modern slavery.

The statistics contribute to an understanding of the profile of potential victims referred to the Home Office. They are used by the Government, NGOs and other organisations to monitor the impact of policy and operational decisions and challenge government on modern slavery policy.

The content of this publication is reviewed as to whether it meets the needs of users, and data is added accordingly. Further information can be found in the ‘revisions’ section.

Accuracy and reliability

Data is based on an extract from the database taken on 8 April 2024. NRM referral statistics and DtN report statistics are based on information provided on forms by first responders. First responders receive guidance on identifying and referring potential victims of modern slavery. In line with guidance provided, the competent authorities can seek additional information from stakeholders, where required, to ensure consistency of consideration and recording of outcomes.

The reported statistics might be different from previous bulletins. The data is extracted from a live case management system and the recorded data might be updated as new information comes to light.

For location of exploitation data, UK counties are grouped using the towns and cities reported by referrals. Here, ‘counties’ refer to lieutenancy areas, which are the boundaries used because of the scale at which the data is collected. The data boundaries used for overseas country of exploitation do not necessarily reflect the UK Government’s official position. Not all places of exploitation may be included if these are not provided on referral forms. If a referral has reported the same place multiple times, it is only counted once in the statistics. Because referrals may report multiple places, it is not advised to add the numbers for multiple UK counties and multiple overseas countries.

County lines cases are manually ‘flagged’ and added to cases by decision makers. The referral form does not explicitly require the first responder to highlight whether county lines is a feature of a potential victim’s exploitation. If the first responder does not provide the information to enable decision makers to identify county lines potential victims, they are not flagged on the system. Therefore, the data may not identify all county lines potential victims referred to the NRM. In addition, more information may come to light that a potential victim has been exploited through county lines which may be flagged at a later stage in the decision-making process. If these cases are subsequently identified, data will be updated to reflect this.

The data for reconsiderations has some fields which have been recorded inconsistently. The latest decision date has been found to be missing or inaccurate in a small number of cases. While cases with an inaccurate latest decision are included, those with missing dates have been excluded, in addition to reconsiderations from duplicate referrals, to ensure the data does not double count reconsiderations. As such, reconsideration data should be used with caution and may be subject to revision.

Overall referral breakdowns are reliable for data prior 2014, but more granular data was not quality assured at the time the data was collected. Most data is therefore presented from 2014 onwards.

All percentages in the bulletin are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point.

Timeliness and punctuality

NRM and DtN statistics are typically published less than 2 months after each quarter finishes. The exceptions are the October to December and annual statistics, which are both published 3 months after the year finishes due to the work required to quality assure and publish multiple publications. The statistics collection contains previous release dates and the Government statistics release calendar publishes upcoming dates.

Accessibility and clarity

From the annual publication for 2022, the bulletin has been published to reflect accessibility criteria outlined in guidance published by the Government Analysis Function. This includes editing bulletin text, formatting of data tables and converting graphs to more accessible formats. More information on accessibility changes can be found in the ‘revisions’ section.

Coherence and comparability

The NRM was set-up in 2009, though detailed breakdowns of statistics prior to 2014 are not made available for the reasons outlined in the ‘accuracy and reliability’ section. Broadly consistent data recording practises (with exception of nationality and exploitation type referrals statistics outlined in the ‘revisions’ section) allow for meaningful comparisons over time. The DtN began in 2015 and has similarly consistent data recording practises, enabling comparisons from the start of the dataset.

NRM and DtN datasets are the most extensive datasets on potential victims of modern slavery in the UK. Both datasets contain data collected through a range of first responders. NRM referrals are sent from across the UK, while DtN reports are sent from England and Wales. However, there could be overlaps between the 2 datasets. For example, a first responder could encounter a potential victim that is notified to the Home Office through a DtN and, subsequently, another first responder could encounter the same victim who then decides they want to be referred into the NRM. As the DtN is anonymised it is not possible to understand the overlap between the 2 datasets.

Other sources of data may not necessarily reflect trends shown in NRM and DtN statistics due to differing recording practises, scope and definitions of modern slavery.

Data source

NRM and DtN statistics are taken from an administrative Home Office case management system. It receives online NRM referrals and DtN reports from first responders and stores information on each case.

Additional information is added by decision makers from the SCA and IECA, which include decision outcomes and decision dates, as well as amendments to existing information such as the responsible police force. Cases are also flagged if they meet certain criteria, such as those involving county lines.

Decision makers may also merge cases together if they are identified as being for the same individual. They may also reopen cases which were closed, such as if a decision is being reconsidered.

Statistical production

This statistical bulletin has been produced to the highest professional standards and is free from political interference. It has been produced by statisticians working in the Home Office Analysis & Insight Directorate under the Home Office’s Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, which covers Home Office policy on revisions and other matters.

Data is extracted by Home Office Analysis and Insight from the case management system and is cleaned using reproducible and tested code. The code reformats data for statistical production, such as by grouping the data into categories (for example, first responder type and age groups) and standardises spelling. Further columns are also added, such as time to decision. Following this, the statistics are collated and outputted as a bulletin with accompanying graphs.

The Chief Statistician, as Head of Profession, reports to the National Statistician regarding all professional statistical matters and oversees all Home Office National Statistics products regarding the Code, being responsible for their timing, content and methodology.

Quality assurance

Data cleaning and grouping has been agreed and checked by the SCA. This is done using reproducible code, which is split into sections to first provide a cleaned dataset, and then produce the bulletin and graphs. The latter 2 are manually cross-checked with the dataset. Reproducible code also allows analytical colleagues to test and validate the production.

Data tables are manually produced using the cleaned dataset and are cross-checked with the bulletin and dataset. Data tables are then checked by the SCA for accuracy.

8. Revisions

Overall

The National Crime Agency (NCA) previously published NRM statistics prior to transferring NRM decision-making responsibilities to the SCA in April 2019 as part of the NRM Reform Programme. Publications prior to July 2019 can be accessed via the NCA website. With this transfer of responsibility, this data is now designated as Official Statistics and produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Exploitation type statistics

Prior to October 2019, potential victims were recorded as having a single primary exploitation type, grouped into distinct categories:

• labour
• sexual
• domestic servitude
• organ harvesting
• unknown exploitation

Following changes to recording after October 2019, these categories changed to give a better picture of the exploitation experienced by potential victims. These changes split criminal exploitation from labour exploitation, and factor in cases where individuals have experienced multiple exploitation types.

Furthermore, ‘Unknown exploitation’ is no longer a category; instead, first responders can provide information for unclassified exploitation in a free-text box field. This field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’. Apply caution when comparing statistics for exploitation type from October 2019 with previous quarters.

Nationality statistics

A potential victim’s nationality is based on information provided by the first responder upon referral; however, case workers may update this as further information is gathered.

Before October 2019, potential victims were recorded as having a single nationality. Following this, dual nationalities were recorded as separate categories. Caution should therefore be applied when comparing statistics for nationality from October 2019 with previous quarters.

Police force identification

Police force data provided in data tables is based on the location of the police force that received the NRM referral. Each referral is screened against the criteria below to identify the responsible geographic police force. Once identified, the referral is transferred for action to the relevant Force Intelligence Bureau or stipulated point of receipt within the force.

Sometimes, further information is received and processed regarding a referral, which means it will be sent to a different police force. The updated statistics will reflect this. Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force are:

• the force has acted as first responder, or the referral indicates that the force is already involved in the recording/investigation of the potential modern slavery human trafficking offences
• the potential victim has been exploited within the force area
• the potential victim has been exploited abroad, or at an unknown location and the victim’s address at time of referral is within the force area
• the potential victim has been exploited abroad or at an unknown location and they have presented to another first responder within the force area

Bulletin

January to March 2022: data was first split out in the bulletin for referrals received and decisions made by the SCA and IECA, given it was the first full quarter since the IECA was set-up. Figure 1 was also changed to reflect this.

October to December 2022: the key findings were rationalised to show the most important points illustrated by the data.

Annual 2022: an annex was first added to this bulletin to highlight key drivers of referrals in the year and provide more detailed statistics.

April to June 2023: the ‘reasonable grounds decisions’ section was updated to include data on average time to issue reasonable grounds decisions, to match the ‘conclusive grounds decisions’ section. A new section on ‘disqualifications’ was also added, since it was the first full quarter where disqualifications for the NRM were considered.

July to September 2023: a new section on ‘reconsiderations’ was added with data on the number of reconsidered decisions. The ‘nationality’ section was also updated to outline the number of nationalities represented in the NRM.

October to December 2023: more context and background was added to better explain the data. A flowchart was added as figure 1, to show the NRM and DtN processes. Additionally, the ‘further information’ section was split out into 3 new sections: ‘quality information’, ‘revisions’ and ‘related publications’. These added more detailed information on quality, provided a better overview of changes to this publication and signposted to related published work.

January to March 2024: within the ‘location of exploitation’ section, data on UK county of exploitation and overseas country of exploitation has been added. This provides a more granular breakdown of exploitation reported in the UK and overseas. Additionally, breakdowns by ‘age at referral’ were added into the bulletin, replacing the breakdowns by ‘age at exploitation’ in previous publications. To note, data on both ‘age at exploitation’ and ‘age at referral’ was included in the dataset published on the UK Data Service.

Data tables

July to September 2021: tables were reformatted. Table 7 (referrals by UK country and age group) in previous updates was removed as this information is available in table 3. Tables 16 to 26 in previous updates (referrals received by police forces by nationality, exploitation type, first responder and age at exploitation) were removed. This information is now available in tables 4 to 9.

January to March 2022: tables were split out. Tables 15 and 16 (reasonable/conclusive grounds decisions by age group at exploitation) in previous releases were split into tables for SCA and IECA decisions. Reasonable grounds decision breakdowns are therefore provided as tables 20 to 22, whilst conclusive grounds breakdowns are provided as tables 34 to 36.

April to June 2022: tables were split out. Table 21 (average number of days taken to make conclusive grounds decisions) in past releases was split for SCA and IECA times. Timeliness breakdowns are therefore provided as tables 37 to 39.

October to December 2022: tables were split out and reformatted for accessibility. Table 1 (referrals by age group and location of exploitation) in past releases was split into tables 1 and 2 to more clearly show referrals split by competent authority. Several changes to formatting were made for accessibility, including adding consistent worksheet titles, adding a notes worksheet and reducing the use of merged cells.

April to June 2023: tables were added. Additional tables were added to show average time to reasonable grounds decision (table 25), as well as split by the SCA and IECA (tables 26 and 27 respectively). Moreover, tables 28 to 30 were added for disqualification requests, and tables 31 to 33 were added for confirmed disqualifications.

July to September 2023: tables were added. Additional tables were provided to show reconsideration requests (tables 40 to 42) and outcomes (tables 43 to 45).

January to March 2024: tables were added. Additional tables were provided to show age at referral (tables 3 to 4), referrals by UK county (table 12) and referrals by overseas country (table 13). Age at exploitation information has been replaced with age at referral, though is still included in tables 5 to 6. Moreover, tables 23 to 24 have been added to monitor the Sustainable Development Goals that relate to modern slavery.

9. Related publications

Latest and previous NRM and DtN statistical releases can be found in the National Referral Mechanism statistics collection.

Raw NRM data used for statistical releases is published on UK Data Service.

For statistics on the number of small boat arrivals with NRM referrals, see the Irregular migration to the UK statistics collection.

Research on modern slavery referrals for people detained for return after arriving in the UK on small boats was published in March 2023.

Ad-hoc analysis on modern slavery referrals from asylum, small boats and detention cohorts was published in May 2023.

Statistics and analysis of the devolved decision-making pilot for child victims of modern slavery was published in November 2023.

Offences and charges data for modern slavery is published in the police recorded crime statistics collection.

Prosecutions statistics for modern slavery-flagged crimes in England and Wales are published by the Crown Prosecution Service in their data summaries.

Sentencing data for modern slavery offences in England and Wales is published by the Ministry of Justice in their Criminal Justice System statistics.

The Office for National Statistics publish a summary of data sources for modern slavery in the UK, as well as those specifically for child victims.

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