Official Statistics

Modern slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, quarter 3 2024 - July to September

Published 7 November 2024

This statistical bulletin provides a summary and breakdown of the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred into the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) or via the Duty to Notify (DtN) process from 1 July to 30 September 2024 (quarter 3). Please refer to the data tables published alongside this bulletin for additional data. Raw data related to referrals from 2014 onwards is available from the UK Data Service. Future release dates for these statistics are published in the Government statistics release calendar.

This publication includes an annex with statistics on the devolving decision-making pilot for child victims of modern slavery.

Frequency of release: Quarterly
Home Office Responsible Statistician: Stuart Prince

1. Key results

• 4,758 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office from July to September 2024, representing a 10% increase compared to the previous quarter (4,312) and a 15% increase from July to September 2023 (4,132)
• the number of referrals received this quarter was the highest since the NRM began in 2009, a slight increase from the previous record in the period from January to March 2023 (4,742)
• 87% (4,127) were sent to the Single Competent Authority (SCA) for consideration and 13% (631) to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA)
• the most common nationalities referred this quarter were UK (23%; 1,092), Albanian (11%; 523) and Vietnamese (11%; 514)
• 4,953 reasonable grounds and 5,188 conclusive grounds decisions were issued this quarter; the number of conclusive grounds decisions issued was the highest for any quarter since the NRM began, representing a 35% increase from the previous record in the period from January to March 2024 (3,838)
• 50% of reasonable grounds (2,500) and 52% of conclusive grounds decisions (2,705) were positive
• the Home Office received 1,501 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process, the highest in a quarter since the DtN began in 2015 and a 6% increase from the previous record in the period from January to March 2023 (1,420)

Figure 1: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by competent authority

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability. The IECA took on referrals from November 2021 onwards.

2. Introduction

Modern slavery is a term that includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour, as set out in the Modern Slavery Act 2015. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK who come to the attention of authorised first responder organisations are referred to the NRM.

Authorised first responder organisations include local authorities, specified non-governmental organisations (NGOs), police forces and specified government agencies. Adults (aged 18 or above) must consent to being referred to the NRM, whilst children aged 17 and under need not consent to being referred. Adults who were exploited as children can also be referred. As specified in section 52 of the Modern Slavery Act 2015, public authorities in England and Wales have a statutory duty to notify the Home Office when they come across potential victims of modern slavery. This duty is discharged by either referring a child or consenting adult potential victim into the NRM, or by notifying the Home Office via the DtN process if an adult victim does not consent to enter the NRM.

Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions from the Home Office on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds, and conclusive grounds (figure 2).

Before 30 January 2023, the reasonable grounds test was whether the decision maker suspects but cannot prove that the individual is a victim of modern slavery. From 30 January 2023, that test was amended so that the decision maker must agree there are reasonable grounds to, based on objective factors, that a person is a victim of modern slavery. From 10 July 2023, the test was further amended to whether decision makers agree there are reasonable grounds to believe, based on all available general and specific evidence but falling short of conclusive proof, that a person is a victim of modern slavery. This takes the victim’s account into consideration and any other relevant information, and considers whether, in the circumstances of the case, it is reasonable to expect supporting information to be available.

From 30 January 2023, disqualification requests could be made for individuals if they are deemed to have met criteria for disqualification from the NRM. These criteria may be based on either grounds of public order, bad faith, or if the individual has already received a support period in the NRM. Individuals may only be disqualified after they have received a positive reasonable grounds decision. Public order disqualification decisions were paused from 31 July 2023 to 8 January 2024 while this policy was updated. For more information, see the published guidance for modern slavery.

Following a positive reasonable grounds decision, a conclusive grounds decision will be made. A positive conclusive grounds decision indicates that, on the balance of probabilities, there is sufficient information to consider the individual is a victim of modern slavery.

Figure 2: Victim identification flowchart (simplified)

Source: Home Office

Notes:

1. The DtN is only open to adults in England and Wales (as opposed to the NRM which covers the UK). Consent is not needed for children to enter the NRM.
2. Decisions may be reconsidered, which may mean some cases are reopened after being closed.
3. Some cases may not follow this flowchart. For instance, some may be suspended, and others may be devolved pilot cases which can receive combined reasonable and conclusive grounds decisions.

Currently, adults with a positive reasonable grounds decision supported by the Modern Slavery Victim Care Contract (MSVCC) in England and Wales are entitled to accommodation where necessary, financial support and access to a support worker. Victims in MSVCC support with a positive conclusive grounds decision are entitled to a further 45 days of support at least, whilst those with a negative decision receive 9 days of ‘move on’ support as the individual exits the service. See further information regarding the NRM process.

Trained specialists in the Home Office decide who is recognised as a victim of modern slavery. The SCA was launched in April 2019 and the IECA was created in November 2021. Both competent authorities recognise victims of modern slavery for cases referred to the NRM across the UK. See further information regarding both competent authorities.

In June 2021, the Home Office launched a pilot programme, across 10 successful sites, to test alternative models of decision-making for child victims of modern slavery and human trafficking. To enable further testing, 10 additional pilot sites were launched in early 2023. The Home Office are working closely with local authorities and stakeholders to monitor the pilot and continue to assess next steps. Decisions made by pilot areas, which are then issued by the SCA, are included in the data used for the bulletin. Statistics on the devolved decision-making pilot for children are provided in an annex. See further information regarding the pilots.

3. National Referral Mechanism (referrals)

3.1 Overall

From July to September 2024, the NRM received 4,758 referrals of potential victims of modern slavery. This represents a 10% increase in referrals compared to the preceding quarter (4,312) and a 15% increase from July to September 2023 (4,132). This is also the highest number of referrals in a quarter since the NRM began, although it is only 16 more referrals than the previous record high from January to March 2023 (4,742).

There have been a number of changes which have collectively raised the profile of modern slavery since 2014. These are likely to have increased awareness of modern slavery and the NRM and, alongside potential increases in exploitation, may have driven the increase in overall referrals. However, it is not possible to point to a main driver due to the hidden nature of modern slavery.

3.2 Age group

The Home Office records demographic data about individuals referred into the NRM, as well as information about the exploitation they have potentially suffered. This includes the age at referral, as well as the age of reported exploitation. Statistics on age at exploitation can be found in the data tables.

Of all referrals this quarter, 68% (3,254) were adults at age of referral (compared to 66% in the previous quarter), whilst 31% (1,498) were children (compared to 34% in the previous quarter) (figure 3). The age at referral was unknown in 6 cases. The number of adults referred was the highest in a quarter since the NRM began.

Figure 3: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by age of referral

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.
2. Excludes referrals where the age at referral is unknown.

3.3 Location of exploitation

Potential victims may report that their exploitation has occurred either in the UK, overseas, or a combination of both. Overall, 42% (1,995) of potential victims claimed that they were exploited exclusively in the UK, compared to 47% in the previous quarter, and 46% (2,200) claimed that they were exploited exclusively overseas, compared to 40% in the previous quarter (data table 3; figure 4). The number of referrals for those claiming they were exploited exclusively in the UK has generally followed an upward trend since 2015. The number of potential victims who claimed exploitation exclusively overseas was the highest for a quarter since the NRM began, and it was the first quarter that these referrals have overtaken the number claiming exploitation in the UK.

Figure 4: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by location of exploitation

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.

Where exploitation has occurred in the UK, referrals may also name the towns and cities where this is reported to have occurred. These are grouped into counties for the purpose of data reporting. Here, ‘counties’ refer to lieutenancy areas, which are the boundaries used because of the scale at which the data is collected, as well as for the purpose of mapping. Further information can be found in the ‘Quality information’ section.

From July to September 2024, the UK county where exploitation was most commonly reported to have occurred in was Greater London (579). This was followed by West Midlands (177) and Greater Manchester (116). Referrals may report multiple places of exploitation, so it is not advised to combine statistics for multiple counties.

Figure 5: Number of NRM referrals reporting exploitation in UK counties

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Includes referrals which have reported exploitation in the UK, or a combination of the UK and overseas.
2. It is not advised to combine statistics for multiple counties as each referral may report multiple places of exploitation.
3. May not capture all places of exploitation if they are not recorded on referral forms.

Where exploitation has occurred overseas, referrals may also name the countries and regions where this is reported to have occurred. From July to September 2024, the overseas country where exploitation was most commonly said to have occurred in was Libya (908). This was followed by Albania (255) and Vietnam (235). Referrals may report multiple places of exploitation, so it is not advised to combine statistics for multiple countries.

Figure 6: Number of NRM referrals reporting exploitation in overseas countries

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Country borders do not necessarily reflect the UK Government’s official position.
2. Includes referrals which have reported exploitation overseas, or a combination of the UK and overseas.
3. It is not advised to combine statistics for multiple countries as referrals may report multiple places of exploitation.
4. May not capture all places of exploitation if they are not recorded on referral forms.

3.4 Gender

Overall, of the 4,758 potential victims referred in this quarter, 75% (3,589) were male and 24% (1,160) were female. This quarter saw the third highest number of referrals for males and the third highest number of referrals for females since the NRM began. Although the proportion of referrals that were female saw a fall in this quarter, it has generally been increasing since the period from July to September 2022, where 20% of potential victims referred were female.

For adults (at age of referral), 74% (2,414) were male and 26% (834) were female; whilst for children, 78% (1,169) were male and 22% (326) were female (data table 4). The number of referrals for males who were adults at the time of referral was the highest in a quarter since the NRM began.

3.5 Exploitation type

There are a variety of ways potential victims can be exploited as set out in the modern slavery statutory guidance. From October 2019, the recording categories were changed, to include more types and combinations of exploitation. Statistics prior to this should therefore not be compared. More information can be found in the ‘revisions’ section.

Overall, potential victims were most commonly referred for labour exploitation only, which accounted for 34% (1,616) of all referrals. For adults (at age of referral), labour exploitation was most commonly reported (43%; 1,398), whereas children were most often referred for criminal exploitation (45%; 671) (data table 4). See further information on types of exploitation.

Figure 7: Number of NRM referrals, by exploitation type and age at referral

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. First responders can enter data for unclassified exploitation in a free-text field; for statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.
2. Less commonly reported exploitation types are grouped as ‘Other’ and a full breakdown is provided in data table 4.

Exploitation types typically have gendered patterns. For example, from July to September 2024, males most often reported criminal (28%; 987) or labour exploitation (41%; 1,461), whereas females most often reported sexual exploitation (34%; 393).

Referrals may be flagged as county lines cases by decision makers, which is most commonly a subset of criminal exploitation. County lines is a term used to describe drug gangs in large cities expanding their reach to small towns. Often, the gangs exploit vulnerable individuals to transport substances, and mobile phone ‘lines’ are used to communicate drug orders. See further information on county lines.

From July to September 2024, 403 county lines referrals were flagged, accounting for 8% of all referrals received (data table 19). The majority (71%; 288) of these referrals were for male children (at age of referral).

Referrals flagged as county lines partly drove the increase in referrals for children within the criminal exploitation category from 2020 to 2022. In 2022, there were an average of almost 600 referrals flagged each quarter. In 2023, the number of referrals flagged fell to an average of around 450 each quarter, and also fell as a proportion of all referrals (from 14% in 2022 to 11% in 2023).

Figure 8: Number of NRM referrals flagged as county lines, by age at referral and gender

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. County lines referrals were classified as a sub-type of labour exploitation prior to October 2019. Since January 2020, a ‘flag’ within the NRM digital casework system identifies county lines referrals.

3.6 Nationality

There were 201 nationalities represented in referrals this quarter, which includes dual nationals as separate categories. The most common nationality referred was UK, which accounted for 23% (1,092) of all potential victims (compared to 26% in the previous quarter). The second most commonly referred nationality was Albanian (11%; 523) and the third was Vietnamese (11%; 514) (data table 7).

The majority (74%; 804) of UK nationals were children (at age of referral); whilst for Albanian nationals, most (91%; 478) were adults. For Vietnamese nationals, 81% (417) were adults and 19% (97) were children (figure 9). Potential victims may have no recorded age at referral, so are grouped as ‘not specified or unknown’ in the data tables.

The UK often supports efforts to tackle modern slavery upstream in key source countries. Between 2016 and 2023, the Home Office has spent over £40 million through the Modern Slavery Fund to combat modern slavery overseas and reduce the threat of human trafficking to the UK, including from Albania and Vietnam.

Please note, a change to data recording from October 2019 means that NRM data reflects the dual nationality of potential victims in separate categories. To see total counts of a particular nationality, please refer to the data tables. A potential victim’s nationality is based on information provided by the first responder upon referral; however case workers may update this as further information is gathered.

Figure 9: Number of NRM referrals for the most common nationalities of potential victims, by age at referral

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at referral.
2. There are separate categories for dual-nationals.

3.7 Location of crime investigation

Upon receiving an NRM referral, the SCA determines the responsible geographic police force for investigation based on the information provided on the referral form and transfers the referral. Transfer between police forces can take place as they receive further information, which is reflected in the statistics. Previously, British Transport Police referrals were classed under England, but are now separate in the data tables.

As in previous quarters, most (84%; 4,020) of the NRM referrals were sent to police forces in England, with 5% (236) to Police Scotland, 3% (127) to Welsh police forces and 4% (183) to the Police Service of Northern Ireland (data table 3).

3.8 First responders

From July to September 2024, 54% (2,582) of the referrals came from government agencies, compared to 49% in the previous quarter. This was the highest number of referrals that came from government agencies for any quarter since the NRM began. Of these referrals, most came from UK Visas and Immigration (59%; 1,535), whilst 25% (645) came from Home Office Immigration Enforcement, compared to 32% in the previous quarter (data table 15; figure 10).

NGO and third-sector organisations accounted for 5% (224) of referrals (data table 16). Police forces and Regional Organised Crime Units (ROCUs) accounted for 19% (909) of NRM referrals from July to September 2024, compared to 21% in the previous quarter (data table 17). Local authorities accounted for 22% (1,041) of referrals, mostly for children (at age of referral) (data table 18).

Law enforcement efforts often focus on modern slavery which may lead to an increase in NRM referrals. The National Crime Agency (NCA) co-ordinate Project Aidant, which was established in 2017 as a series of targeted law enforcement intensifications aimed at tackling modern slavery threats. Operations are run nationally, with 4 intensifications being undertaken each calendar year that involve local police forces working alongside partner agencies to focus on vulnerability, exploitation and modern slavery.

Figure 10: Number of NRM referrals by first responder types

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at referral.

4. National Referral Mechanism (decisions)

4.1 Reasonable grounds decisions

From July to September 2024, 4,953 reasonable grounds decisions were issued, with 50% being positive. This was the lowest proportion of positive reasonable grounds decisions made in a quarter since the NRM began. Of these, the SCA issued 4,294 decisions and the IECA issued 659 decisions; 55% (2,363) of reasonable grounds decisions made by the SCA were positive and 21% (137) of reasonable grounds decisions made by the IECA were positive (data tables 21 and 22).

For the 2,453 negative reasonable grounds decisions issued this quarter, the most common reason for issuing negative decisions was that the referral had insufficient information to meet the standard of proof required (48%; 1,183). The second most common reason was that the referral did not meet the definition of modern slavery (47%; 1,146) and the third was that the referral was not credible (4%; 109) (data table 25).

The proportion of positive reasonable grounds decisions had remained relatively stable in recent years, with around 9 out of every 10 referrals receiving a positive decision. However, from 30 January 2023, the threshold for a positive reasonable grounds decision was updated, which led to a reduction in the proportion of positive decisions issued. On 10 July 2023, the threshold was revised once more, and for further information see the published guidance.

Of the 4,953 reasonable grounds decisions issued this quarter, the proportion of positive reasonable grounds decisions was 38% for adults (at age of referral) and 77% for children (data table 20).

Figure 11: Number of NRM positive and negative reasonable grounds decisions

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the competent authority issued their decision.

The average (median) time taken from referral to reasonable grounds decisions made from July to September 2024 across the competent authorities was 11 days, compared to 10 days in the previous quarter (data table 26). For reasonable grounds decisions made by the SCA, the average time taken this quarter was 13 days, and the IECA took an average of 5 days (data tables 27 and 28, respectively).

Average wait times for reasonable grounds decisions had been increasing following the change in guidance for such decisions since 30 January 2023 but have broadly fallen since the period from October to December 2023. While average wait times have fallen since this period, they are still above pre-guidance change levels (data table 26).

It is important to note that decision-making times presented here are for cases that received a reasonable grounds decision in this period and do not reflect the waiting time of all cases within the system. Decision-making times are taken as the difference between the date of the referral receipt and decision date, and do not exclude any periods of time during which referrals may be suspended, withdrawn or previously closed. Hence, actual average wait times will be shorter.

In addition, cases where the decision-making is devolved to local authorities as part of a pilot for children are included as SCA cases for these statistics. Decisions made as part of this pilot operate at different timescales, with guidance outlining that reasonable grounds decisions should be made no later than 45 days from the date the pilot area receives the referral. More information can be found in the published guidance.

4.2 Disqualifications

From 30 January 2023, disqualification requests could be made by the Home Office for individuals if they are deemed to have met criteria for disqualification from the NRM (either on the basis of bad faith, public order or given the person would benefit from multiple recovery periods). From July to September 2024, 60 disqualification requests were made. Of these, 97% (58) were on grounds of public order and 3% (2) were on grounds of bad faith (data table 29).

Upon the individual receiving notice of a disqualification request, there is a period of 10 working days for evidence to be sent to competent authorities to consider while making their decision on whether to disqualify. The expectation is that a disqualification decision will be made as close as possible to a positive reasonable grounds decision.

From July to September 2024, there were 80 confirmed disqualifications, all of which were made on grounds of public order (data table 32). Public order disqualification decisions were paused from 31 July 2023 to 8 January 2024 while this policy was updated.

4.3 Conclusive grounds decisions

From July to September 2024, 5,188 conclusive grounds decisions were issued, compared to 3,093 in the previous quarter and 2,356 from July to September 2023. The number of conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter was the highest since the NRM began, following the increasing trend since the early months of 2021 due to the significant productivity and efficiency efforts of the competent authorities, and the additional decision makers recruited by the Home Office.

For those issued this quarter, the proportion of positive conclusive grounds decisions was 52%. More specifically, the proportion of positive conclusive grounds decisions was 37% for adults (at age of referral) and 74% for children (data table 35).

For the 2,483 negative conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter, the most common reason for issuing negative decisions was that the referral had insufficient information to meet the standard of proof required (78%; 1,935). The second most common reason was that the referral did not meet the definition of modern slavery (13%; 327) and the third was that the referral was not credible (8%; 201) (data table 38).

Of the 5,188 decisions issued this quarter, 3,531 were issued by the SCA and 1,657 by the IECA (data tables 36 and 37); 72% (2,526) of conclusive grounds decisions issued by the SCA were positive and 11% (179) of conclusive grounds decisions issued by the IECA were positive.

Figure 12: Number of NRM positive and negative conclusive grounds decisions

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the competent authority issued their decision.

The average (median) time taken from referral to conclusive grounds decisions made from July to September 2024 across the competent authorities was 1,039 days, compared to 543 days in the previous quarter (data table 39). For conclusive grounds decisions made by the SCA, the average time taken this quarter was 725 days, and the IECA took an average of 1,675 days (data tables 40 and 41, respectively).

The average time taken for the IECA to make decisions has been much higher since May 2024. The IECA did not take on older cases prior to its establishment in 2021, but in May 2024 took on the remainder of the cases awaiting conclusive grounds decision which would have been within IECA cohorts, totaling 1,914 cases. These cases were referred to the NRM prior to the establishment of the IECA in November 2021, but are part of cohorts that the IECA typically make decisions on. The IECA made conclusive grounds decisions on 1,487 of the cases in the period from July to September 2024, leading to higher average decision times.

It is important to note that decision-making times presented here are for cases that received a conclusive grounds decision in this period and do not reflect the waiting time of all cases within the system. Decision-making times are taken as the difference between the date of the referral receipt and decision date, and do not exclude any periods of time during which referrals may be suspended, withdrawn or previously closed. Hence, actual average wait times will be shorter.

Given the quarterly variance in the average time to decision, the average (median) age of those awaiting conclusive grounds decisions is a more accurate reflection of wait times. Overall, the average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision at the end of September 2024 was 711 days. For SCA cases, the average age was 711 days and for IECA cases the average age was 182 days (data table 42).

As of the end of September 2024, there were 20,111 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, having already received a positive reasonable grounds decision. Of these, 19,939 are SCA cases and 172 are IECA cases. The number of cases awaiting conclusive grounds decisions has decreased in every quarter since October 2022 (data table 45).

4.4 Reconsiderations

Decisions may be reconsidered after being issued by the competent authorities. This could be if additional evidence becomes available, taken with all available evidence already considered, that would be material to the outcome of a case, or there are specific concerns that a decision has not been made in line with published guidance. For more information, see the published guidance.

From July to September 2024, there were 303 reconsideration requests made to the competent authorities. Of these, 197 were for reasonable grounds decisions, 98 were for conclusive grounds decisions and 8 were for disqualification decisions (data table 46).

From July to September 2024, 72% of reasonable grounds decisions which were reconsidered received a positive outcome. For conclusive grounds decisions, 71% were positive, and there were no reconsiderations on disqualification decisions made (data table 49). These outcomes may be from reconsideration requests made in previous quarters.

Both reconsideration requests and outcomes refer to the most recent instance where the competent authority has agreed to reconsider at each decision stage for an individual. Hence, an individual will only be shown to have a maximum of one reasonable grounds request and outcome, and one conclusive grounds or disqualification request and outcome.

Reconsideration requests may also be for positive or hybrid decisions, which are included in these statistics. A hybrid decision is where the potential victim has reported multiple incidents of exploitation, where at least one incident is accepted and one or more are not accepted. In a small number of cases, reconsideration data contains inaccurately recorded fields, so apply caution when using. For more information, see the ‘Quality information’ section.

5. Duty to Notify

Since 1 November 2015, specific public authorities in England and Wales must notify the Home Office via the DtN process of suspected adult victims of modern slavery that do not consent to enter the NRM. During this process, first responders may not collect the potential victim’s personal details.

From July to September 2024, the Home Office received 1,501 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process (data table 52; figure 13), compared to 1,172 in the previous quarter. The number for this quarter is the highest ever recorded, representing a 6% increase from the previous record in the period from January to March 2023 (1,420). Of these:

• the most notified nationalities were Eritrean (18%; 274), Vietnamese (14%; 205) and Sudanese (10%; 155) (data table 53)
• the most notified exploitation types were labour (46%; 689), not recorded or unknown (20%; 297) and sexual (13%; 202) (data table 54)
• in terms of first responders, most DtN reports were submitted by Home Office - UK Visas and Immigration UKVI (59%; 890), Home Office - UK Border Force UKBF (13%; 199) and Home Office - Immigration Enforcement IE (7%; 101) (data table 55)

Figure 13: Number of quarterly DtN referrals

Source: SCA

Notes:

1. Potential victims may be reported via DtN and subsequently also referred to the NRM at a later point in time, so these figures should not be combined due to potential double counting.

6. What’s new?

Statistics on the reasons given for negative conclusive grounds and reasonable grounds decisions have been added to the bulletin. These provide information on the reason why a negative decision has been issued by the decision maker. Statistics on the average age cases have spent awaiting conclusive grounds decisions have also been added to the bulletin.

7. Quality information

These statistics are produced in accordance with quality requirements of the Code of Practice for Statistics. It uses guidance published on the Government Analysis Function, which considers 5 aspects of quality:

• relevance
• accuracy and reliability
• timeliness and punctuality
• accessibility and clarity
• coherence and comparability

This section also discusses data sources, production and quality assurance of statistics.

Relevance

NRM and DtN statistics are used to build a picture of the potential scale of potential victims of modern slavery in the UK. As the data relates to potential victims identified by first responders and referred into the NRM and DtN, it does not capture all victims of modern slavery in the UK. There is likely to be a large number of unidentified potential victims given the hidden nature of modern slavery.

The statistics contribute to an understanding of the profile of potential victims referred to the Home Office. They are used by the Government, NGOs and other organisations to monitor the impact of policy and operational decisions and challenge government on modern slavery policy.

The content of this publication is reviewed as to whether it meets the needs of users, and data is added accordingly. Further information can be found in the ‘revisions’ section.

Accuracy and reliability

Data is based on an extract from the database taken on 4 October 2024. NRM referral statistics and DtN report statistics are based on information provided on forms by first responders. First responders receive guidance on identifying and referring potential victims of modern slavery. In line with guidance provided, the competent authorities can seek additional information from stakeholders, where required, to ensure consistency of consideration and recording of outcomes.

The reported statistics might be different from previous bulletins. The data is extracted from a live case management system and the recorded data might be updated as new information comes to light.

For location of exploitation data, UK counties are grouped using the towns and cities reported by referrals. Here, ‘counties’ refer to lieutenancy areas, which are the boundaries used because of the scale at which the data is collected. The data boundaries used for overseas country of exploitation do not necessarily reflect the UK Government’s official position. Not all places of exploitation may be included if these are not provided on referral forms. If a referral has reported the same place multiple times, it is only counted once in the statistics. Because referrals may report multiple places, it is not advised to add the numbers for multiple UK counties and multiple overseas countries.

County lines cases are manually ‘flagged’ and added to cases by decision makers. The referral form does not explicitly require the first responder to highlight whether county lines is a feature of a potential victim’s exploitation. If the first responder does not provide the information to enable decision makers to identify county lines potential victims, they are not flagged on the system. Therefore, the data may not identify all county lines potential victims referred to the NRM. In addition, more information may come to light that a potential victim has been exploited through county lines which may be flagged at a later stage in the decision-making process. If these cases are subsequently identified, data will be updated to reflect this.

The data for reconsiderations has some fields which have been recorded inconsistently. The latest decision date has been found to be missing or inaccurate in a small number of cases. While cases with an inaccurate latest decision are included, those with missing dates have been excluded, in addition to reconsiderations from duplicate referrals, to ensure the data does not double count reconsiderations. As such, reconsideration data should be used with caution and may be subject to revision.

Overall referral breakdowns are reliable for data prior 2014, but more granular data was not quality assured at the time the data was collected. Most data is therefore presented from 2014 onwards.

All percentages in the bulletin are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point.

Timeliness and punctuality

NRM and DtN statistics are typically published less than 2 months after each quarter finishes. The exceptions are the October to December and annual statistics, which are both published 3 months after the year finishes due to the work required to quality assure and publish multiple publications. The statistics collection contains previous release dates and the Government statistics release calendar publishes upcoming dates.

Accessibility and clarity

From the annual publication for 2022, the bulletin has been published to reflect accessibility criteria outlined in guidance published by the Government Analysis Function. This includes editing bulletin text, formatting of data tables and converting graphs to more accessible formats. More information on accessibility changes can be found in the ‘revisions’ section.

Coherence and comparability

The NRM was set-up in 2009, though detailed breakdowns of statistics prior to 2014 are not made available for the reasons outlined in the ‘accuracy and reliability’ section. Broadly consistent data recording practises (with exception of nationality and exploitation type referrals statistics outlined in the ‘revisions’ section) allow for meaningful comparisons over time. The DtN began in 2015 and has similarly consistent data recording practises, enabling comparisons from the start of the dataset.

NRM and DtN datasets are the most extensive datasets on potential victims of modern slavery in the UK. Both datasets contain data collected through a range of first responders. NRM referrals are sent from across the UK, while DtN reports are sent from England and Wales. However, there could be overlaps between the 2 datasets. For example, a first responder could encounter a potential victim that is notified to the Home Office through a DtN and, subsequently, another first responder could encounter the same victim who then decides they want to be referred into the NRM. As the DtN is anonymised it is not possible to understand the overlap between the 2 datasets.

Other sources of data may not necessarily reflect trends shown in NRM and DtN statistics due to differing recording practises, scope and definitions of modern slavery.

Data source

NRM and DtN statistics are taken from an administrative Home Office case management system. It stores information from NRM referrals and DtN reports which are submitted from online forms sent by a variety of first responders.

Referral forms may be filled with varying amounts of information, which depends on what the first responder captures and how much the potential victim provides. If necessary, additional information can be sought by decision makers from the SCA and IECA, who make manual edits to data on the case management system.

Decision makers also add details, such as decision outcomes and decision dates, as well as make amendments to existing information such as the responsible police force, location of exploitation and biographic information. Cases are also flagged if they meet certain criteria, such as those involving county lines.

Decision makers may also merge cases together if they are identified as being for the same individual. They may also reopen cases which were closed, such as if a decision is being reconsidered.

As information can be manually updated on the live case management system, a small number of fields may be inaccurately recorded. These are corrected when identified.

Statistical production

This statistical bulletin has been produced to the highest professional standards and is free from political interference. It has been produced by statisticians working in the Home Office Analysis & Insight Directorate under the Home Office’s Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, which covers Home Office policy on revisions and other matters.

Data is extracted by Home Office Analysis and Insight from the case management system and is cleaned using reproducible and tested code. The code reformats data for statistical production, such as by grouping the data into categories (for example, first responder type and age groups) and standardises spelling. Further columns are also added, such as time to decision. Following this, the statistics are collated and outputted as a bulletin with accompanying graphs.

The Chief Statistician, as Head of Profession, reports to the National Statistician regarding all professional statistical matters and oversees all Home Office National Statistics products regarding the Code, being responsible for their timing, content and methodology.

Quality assurance

Data cleaning and grouping has been agreed and checked by the SCA. This is done using reproducible code, which is split into sections to first provide a cleaned dataset, and then produce the bulletin and graphs. The latter 2 are manually cross-checked with the dataset. Reproducible code also allows analytical colleagues to test and validate the production.

Data tables are manually produced using the cleaned dataset and are cross-checked with the bulletin and dataset. Data tables are then checked by the SCA for accuracy.

8. Revisions

Overall

The National Crime Agency (NCA) previously published NRM statistics prior to transferring NRM decision-making responsibilities to the SCA in April 2019 as part of the NRM Reform Programme. Publications prior to July 2019 can be accessed via the NCA website. With this transfer of responsibility, this data is now designated as Official Statistics and produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Exploitation type statistics

Prior to October 2019, potential victims were recorded as having a single primary exploitation type, grouped into distinct categories:

• labour
• sexual
• domestic servitude
• organ harvesting
• unknown exploitation

Following changes to recording after October 2019, these categories changed to give a better picture of the exploitation experienced by potential victims. These changes split criminal exploitation from labour exploitation, and factor in cases where individuals have experienced multiple exploitation types.

Furthermore, ‘Unknown exploitation’ is no longer a category; instead, first responders can provide information for unclassified exploitation in a free-text box field. This field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’. Apply caution when comparing statistics for exploitation type from October 2019 with previous quarters.

Nationality statistics

A potential victim’s nationality is based on information provided by the first responder upon referral; however, case workers may update this as further information is gathered.

Before October 2019, potential victims were recorded as having a single nationality. Following this, dual nationalities were recorded as separate categories, which has resulted in a greater number of categories which provide a more accurate representation. This quarter, there were 201 nationalities represented by referrals. Caution should therefore be applied when comparing statistics for nationality from October 2019 with previous quarters.

Police force identification

Police force data provided in data tables is based on the location of the police force that received the NRM referral. Each referral is screened against the criteria below to identify the responsible geographic police force. Once identified, the referral is transferred for action to the relevant Force Intelligence Bureau or stipulated point of receipt within the force.

Sometimes, further information is received and processed regarding a referral, which means it will be sent to a different police force. The updated statistics will reflect this. Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force are:

• the force has acted as first responder, or the referral indicates that the force is already involved in the recording/investigation of the potential modern slavery human trafficking offences
• the potential victim has been exploited within the force area
• the potential victim has been exploited abroad, or at an unknown location and the victim’s address at time of referral is within the force area
• the potential victim has been exploited abroad or at an unknown location and they have presented to another first responder within the force area

Bulletin

January to March 2022: data was first split out in the bulletin for referrals received and decisions made by the SCA and IECA, given it was the first full quarter since the IECA was set-up. Figure 1 was also changed to reflect this.

October to December 2022: the key findings were rationalised to show the most important points illustrated by the data.

Annual 2022: an annex was first added to this bulletin to highlight key drivers of referrals in the year and provide more detailed statistics.

April to June 2023: the ‘reasonable grounds decisions’ section was updated to include data on average time to issue reasonable grounds decisions, to match the ‘conclusive grounds decisions’ section. A new section on ‘disqualifications’ was also added, since it was the first full quarter where disqualifications for the NRM were considered.

July to September 2023: a new section on ‘reconsiderations’ was added with data on the number of reconsidered decisions. The ‘nationality’ section was also updated to outline the number of nationalities represented in the NRM.

October to December 2023: more context and background was added to better explain the data. A flowchart was added as figure 1, to show the NRM and DtN processes. Additionally, the ‘further information’ section was split out into 3 new sections: ‘quality information’, ‘revisions’ and ‘related publications’. These added more detailed information on quality, provided a better overview of changes to this publication and signposted to related published work.

January to March 2024: within the ‘location of exploitation’ section, data on UK county of exploitation and overseas country of exploitation has been added. These provide a more granular breakdown of exploitation reported in the UK and overseas.

April to June 2024: within the ‘conclusive grounds decisions’ section, data on the conclusive grounds decision backlog has been added. This provides information on cases that have been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision and are awaiting a conclusive grounds decision.

July to September 2024: within the ‘Reasonable grounds decisions’ section, data on the reasons behind a negative reasonable grounds decision has been added. Additionally, within the ‘Conclusive grounds decisions’, data on the reasons behind a negative conclusive grounds decisions has been added. These provide information on the reason why a negative decision has been issued by the decision maker. Within the ‘Conclusive grounds decisions’ section, data on the average time cases have spent awaiting conclusive grounds decisions has been added.

Data tables

July to September 2021: tables were reformatted. Table 7 (referrals by UK country and age group) in previous updates was removed as this information is available in table 3. Tables 16 to 26 in previous updates (referrals received by police forces by nationality, exploitation type, first responder and age at exploitation) were removed. This information is now available in tables 4 to 9.

January to March 2022: tables were split out. Tables 15 and 16 (reasonable/conclusive grounds decisions by age group at exploitation) in previous releases was split into tables for SCA and IECA decisions. Reasonable grounds decision breakdowns are therefore provided as tables 20 to 22, whilst conclusive grounds breakdowns are provided as tables 35 to 37.

April to June 2022: tables were split out. Table 21 (average number of days taken to make conclusive grounds decisions) in past releases was split for SCA and IECA times. Timeliness breakdowns are therefore provided as tables 39 to 41.

October to December 2022: tables were split out and reformatted for accessibility. Table 1 (referrals by age group and location of exploitation) in past releases was split into tables 1 and 2 to more clearly show referrals split by competent authority. Several changes to formatting were made for accessibility, including adding consistent worksheet titles, adding a notes worksheet and reducing the use of merged cells.

April to June 2023: tables were added. Additional tables were added to show average time to reasonable grounds decision (table 26), as well as split by the SCA and IECA (tables 27 and 28 respectively). Moreover, tables 29 to 31 were added for disqualification requests, and tables 32 to 34 were added for confirmed disqualifications.

July to September 2023: tables were added. Additional tables were provided to show reconsideration requests (tables 46 to 48) and outcomes (tables 49 to 51).

January to March 2024: tables were added. Additional tables were provided to show age at referral (tables 3 to 4), referrals by UK county (table 12) and referrals by overseas country (table 13). Age at exploitation information has been replaced with age at referral, though is still included in tables 5 to 6. Moreover, tables 23 to 24 have been added to monitor the Sustainable Development Goals that relate to modern slavery.

April to June 2024: table was added. An additional table was provided to show the backlog for cases awaiting conclusive grounds decisions having been issued positive reasonable grounds decisions (table 45).

July to September 2024: tables were added. Additional tables were provided to show the average number of days cases are awaiting conclusive grounds decisions (table 42), as well as split by the SCA and IECA (tables 43 and 44 respectively). Moreover, the reasons behind a negative reasonable grounds decision (table 25) and the reasons behind a negative conclusive grounds decision (table 38).

9. Related publications

Latest and previous NRM and DtN statistical releases can be found in the National Referral Mechanism statistics collection.

Raw NRM data used for statistical releases is published on UK Data Service.

For statistics on the number of small boat arrivals with NRM referrals, see the Irregular migration to the UK statistics collection.

Research on modern slavery referrals for people detained for return after arriving in the UK on small boats was published in March 2023.

Ad-hoc analysis on modern slavery referrals from asylum, small boats and detention cohorts was published in May 2023.

Statistics and analysis of the devolved decision-making pilot for child victims of modern slavery was published in November 2023.

Statistics on children referred to the Independent child trafficking guardianship service were published in August 2024.

Offences and charges data for modern slavery is published in the police recorded crime statistics collection.

Prosecutions statistics for modern slavery-flagged crimes in England and Wales are published by the Crown Prosecution Service in their data summaries.

Sentencing data for modern slavery offences in England and Wales is published by the Ministry of Justice in their Criminal Justice System statistics.

The Office for National Statistics publish a summary of data sources for modern slavery in the UK, as well as those specifically for child victims.

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