Accredited official statistics

Serious further offences annual

Published 31 October 2024

Applies to England and Wales

0.1 Key guidance notes

SFO convictions

This bulletin reports SFO conviction figures by the date of SFO notification, that is, the date on which the supervising probation region notifies HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) that an offender under its supervision has appeared in court charged with an offence which qualifies for an SFO review. It reports on the number of cases notified in 2022/23 and of those the number which have subsequently resulted in SFO convictions, as notified to HMPPS as at 30 September 2024. This means that conviction figures are provisional as a proportion of cases have yet to reach a definitive outcome.

A more detailed description of SFO notifications and reviews is in the glossary section.

1. Main ponts

As at 30 September 2024, there were 287 offenders convicted of an SFO, resulting from 579 notifications received in 2022/23.	The number of convictions for 2022/23 has remained relatively constant at similar points for 2021/22. However, the total number of convictions for 2022/23 is likely to be higher when all outstanding cases conclude.
Total SFO notifications received in 2023/24 was 770. By 30 September 2024, a review had been completed in 478 of these notifications.	The number of SFO notifications received in 2023/24 increased by 33% to 770 compared to the previous year. This is the highest level in the series.
In most years, between 50% to 60% of SFO notifications have resulted in a conviction of an SFO.	For the remaining cases, charges are dropped, the offender is acquitted, or the offender is convicted of a less serious offence.

This bulletin and associated tables are part of the Proven Reoffending statistics, and they provide statistics on SFO convictions received by 30 September 2024 and relating to notifications received from 2014/15 to 2022/23, as well as statistics on notifications received from 2014/15 to 2023/24 and their resulting completed reviews. The lag between notification period and publication date for conviction figures is to allow time for most cases to complete the criminal justice process.

Users should see the background notes in this bulletin and refer to the ‘2012 Compendium of Reoffending Statistics and Analysis’ for further definitions of the terms in this bulletin.

2. Statistician’s Comment

“Between 2014/15 and 2016/17, annual SFO notifications and resulting convictions increased markedly as a result of the implementation of the Offender Rehabilitation Act (ORA) 2014^{[footnote 1]}. From 2016/17 the number of notifications decreased annually up to 2020/21. However, we have seen successive increases in notifications in the last three years, with the number of notifications in 2023/24 being the highest in the series.

From 2017/18 the number of SFO convictions broadly followed a similar decreasing pattern to notifications up to 2020/21. In 2021/22 the figures showed a first annual increase in SFO convictions since 2017/18, and 2022/23 is expected to show a higher conviction figure than in 2021/22 when all outstanding cases conclude. Recent levels of conviction have remained lower than the peak in 2017/18.

The increase in both notifications and convictions in part reflect the increased number of adult rape cases charged by the CPS and proceeding to Crown Court, following the Rape Review Action Plan aimed at increasing the number of rape cases reaching court.

We saw annual decreases in SFO convictions for murder in 2019/20 and 2020/21. However, we are likely to see successive annual increases in 2021/22 and 2022/23 when all outstanding murder cases conclude at court.

The number of offenders convicted of offences related to rape and other serious sexual offences decreased annually from 2017/2018 to 2020/21, mirroring the decreasing pattern in overall rape-related convictions in the same period. However, rape and serious sexual offences have increased in the last two years, most likely due to the Rape Review Action Plan.”

For feedback related to the content of this bulletin, please contact us at: [email protected]

3. SFO convictions

---

As at 30 September 2024, there were 287 offenders convicted of an SFO, resulting from 579 notifications received in 2022/23 (compares with 288 convictions as at 30 September 2023 out of 528 notifications received in 2021/22)

After decreasing annually from 2017/18, the number of offenders convicted of an SFO increased for the first time in 2021/22, reflecting a corresponding trend in notifications received. Whilst the number of convictions has remained constant in 2022/23, there was a slight decrease in proportion to the number of notifications received.

---

The introduction of ORA in 2015 led to a marked increase in the number of offenders who became subject to post-release supervision. Where those offenders were charged with an SFO, their cases came into scope under the SFO Review Procedures. Consequently, there was a marked increase in the number of SFO notifications and marked annual increases in the number of offenders convicted of an SFO from 2014/15 to 2017/18.

There are 7 cases for 2020/21, 10 cases for 2021/22 and 44 cases for 2022/23, as at 30 September 2024, where HMPPS is yet to be informed of an outcome following Court proceedings. In most instances, these cases have not yet concluded at Court.

Figure 1: Number of SFO convictions by year of notification as at 30 September 2024 [Source: Table 4]

3.1 Convictions as a Proportion of Notifications

In most years, about 50% to 60% of SFO notifications result in conviction for an SFO. In the remaining cases, either charges are dropped, the offender is acquitted, or the offender is convicted of a less serious offence.

Of the 579 notifications received in 2022/23, 287 had resulted in SFO convictions as at 30 September 2024. Of these convictions, 60 were for murder and 98 were for rape and other serious sexual offences. At the same time last year, there were 288 SFO convictions (59 for murder, 75 for rape and other serious sexual offences) from 528 notifications for 2021/22.

The number of offenders convicted of murder annually increased from 2015/16 to a record high of 103 in 2018/19, partly as a result of the introduction of ORA and increases in the overall murder convictions (non-SFO and SFO) in the same period. Following annual decreases in 2019/20 and 2020/21, the number of SFO murder convictions has remained relatively stable. However, we are likely to see successive annual increases in 2021/22 and 2022/23 when all outstanding murder cases conclude at court.

The number of offenders convicted of offences related to rape and other serious sexual offences decreased annually from a record high of 119 in 2016/17 to 56 in 2020/21, mirroring the decreasing pattern in overall rape-related convictions in the same period.

However, for 2021/22 and 2022/23, we have seen successive annual increases in the number of convictions for rape and other serious sexual offences. These increases are partly due to the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in 2021 and an increase in the number of adult rape cases proceeding to Crown Court following the publication of the End-to-End Rape Review and Action Plan in June 2021^{[footnote 2]}. The continuous progress made through the Rape Review Action Plan to increase the number of rape cases reaching court may have an upward impact on the number of SFO convictions for rape going forward.

3.2 Index sentence

The majority of offenders convicted of an SFO were being supervised either on a community sentence or a determinate custodial sentence (their index sentence) at the time of the offence. Prior to ORA, those sentenced to community supervision made up the majority of those convicted of an SFO; whereas since 2016/17, about 60% of those convicted of an SFO were released from prison on a licence, including those on a period of post sentence supervision introduced by ORA and a small number of offenders serving indeterminate sentences.

Consistently fewer than 10% of those convicted of an SFO had an index sentence of a life sentence (life) or an indeterminate sentence for public protection (IPP) (Source: Tables 2 and 3).

4. SFO notifications and reviews

---

Total SFO notifications received in 2023/24 was 770. As at 30 September 2024, reviews had been completed in relation to 478 of these notifications.

The number of SFO notifications received in 2023/24 increased by 33% to 770 compared to the previous year.

---

After increasing from 2014/15 to 2016/17, due to the introduction of ORA, the number of SFO notifications and resulting reviews decreased annually up to 2020/21, driving a corresponding decreasing trend in convictions. We have since seen successive annual increases in notifications from 2021/22. The latest notification figure for 2023/24 is the highest on record and represents a 33% increase from the previous year. In most years, about 50% to 60% of SFO notifications result in conviction for an SFO. In the remaining cases, either charges are dropped, the offender is acquitted, or the offender is convicted of a less serious offence. The rate of increase in notifications does not always translate into corresponding rate of increase in convictions. From 2014/15, the annual number of convictions has been more stable than the corresponding number of notifications.

Figure 2: Number of SFO notifications, reviews and convictions by year of notification as at 30 September 2024 [Source: Table 4]^{[footnote 3]}

5. Description of the Probation SFO Review Procedures

Since 1 December 2008, an SFO review will be triggered when an offender is charged and appears in court for a qualifying offence alleged to have been committed within the probation supervision period or within 28 working days of the supervision period terminating. The list of SFO qualifying offences is based on, but not identical to, Schedule 18 of the Sentencing Code and can be found as Annex A in the Probation Service Serious Further Offence procedures Policy Framework. SFO reviews are automatically triggered and must be completed in the following cases (formerly known as mandatory reviews):

• any eligible supervised individual has been charged with (including ancillary and inchoate offences such as attempt, conspiracy to commit, incitement to commit and encouraging or assisting commission): murder, manslaughter, other specified offences causing death, rape or assault by penetration, a sexual offence against a child under 13 years of age, or qualifying offences under terrorism or anti-terrorism legislation during a period of management by Probation

A review is conditionally triggered and must be completed in the following cases (formerly known as discretionary reviews):

• any eligible supervised individual who has been charged with another offence on the SFO qualifying list committed during a period of management by Probation and who is or has at some point been assessed as high/very high risk of serious harm during the current sentence; and
• any eligible supervised individual who has been charged with another offence on the SFO qualifying list committed during a period of management by Probation, prior to completion of an initial risk assessment.

The SFO Review Procedures require a notification when an offender is charged and first appears in court for a qualifying offence. The region which supervised the offender completes an internal management report, known as an SFO review. Not all notifications result in a review, e.g. where the charges are dropped/discontinued or if the offender is acquitted prior to the review being completed. Not all cases which are notified as an SFO will result in a conviction. In any year, in about 40% to 50% of cases either the charge is dropped, or the offender is acquitted, or the offender is convicted of a less serious offence.

Users should refer to the ‘2012 Compendium of Reoffending Statistics and Analysis’ for further definitions of the terms used in this bulletin, and for commentary to help interpret these.

6. Glossary

SFOs

The HMPPS SFO Review Procedures require the Probation Service to complete an internal management report, known as an SFO review when an offender is charged with a qualifying offence alleged to have been committed during a period of probation supervision or within 28 working days of the supervision period terminating.

SFO Notification

The Probation Service will complete an SFO notification when an offender, who meets the criteria for an SFO review appears in court for the first time having been charged with an eligible offence under the SFO review procedures.

SFO notification date

The date the supervising probation region submits the paperwork to HMPPS to notify that an offender under supervision has been charged and appeared in court for an offence which qualifies for an SFO review.

SFO Review

Following the submission of an SFO notification, the Probation Service completes an SFO review which considers whether the action taken by probation to supervise the offender was reasonable and defensible and to identify any further action to promote good practice or address any areas for improvement.

7. Further information on SFO data

7.1 Accompanying files

As well as this bulletin, the following products are published as part of this release:

• A set of summary tables covering each section of this bulletin.
• A pdf version of this bulletin

7.2 Data Sources, Quality and Revisions

The data presented in this brief are drawn from Public Protection Unit Database (PPUD). The data are submitted by the Probation Service Regions at the point of charge.

Although care is taken when processing and analysing the notifications, the detail collected is subject to the inaccuracies inherent in any large-scale recording system.

The data are collected for a financial year and are submitted when the person on probation first appears in Court. During the data collection process, we may identify the need to correct or amend the previous year’s data. If required, these are made in the following year’s report.

7.3 Release Schedule

This release was published on 31 October 2024 at 9:30am, and covers, as at 30 September 2024, SFO notifications received up to 2023/24. SFO conviction figures relate to notifications received up to 2022/23 - the lag is to allow time for most cases to complete the criminal justice process. The next annual release will be published on Thursday 30 October 2025 at 9:30am, as part of the Proven Reoffending Statistics.

7.4 National Statistics status

National Statistics are accredited official statistics that meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

All official statistics should comply with all aspects of the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They are awarded National Statistics status following an assessment by the UK statistics Authority’s (UKSA) regulatory arm. The UKSA considers whether the statistics meet the highest standards of Code compliance, including the value they add to public decisions and debate.

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in July 2012. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for statistics and should be labelled ‘accredited official statistics’.

It is the Ministry of Justice’s responsibility to maintain compliance with the standards expected for National Statistics. If we become concerned about whether these statistics are still meeting the appropriate standards, we will discuss any concerns with the Authority promptly. National Statistics status can be removed at any point when the highest standards are not maintained and reinstated when standards are restored.

7.5 Contact

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:
    Tel: 020 3334 3536
    URL: www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ministry-of-justice/about/media-enquiries

Other enquiries and feedback on these statistics should be directed to:
    Eric Nyame     Public Protection Group , HM Prison and Probation Service, 8th Floor, 102 Petty France, London, SW1H 9AJ
    Email: [email protected]

Next update: 31 October 2025

URL: www.gov.uk/government/collections/proven-reoffending-statistics

© Crown copyright
Produced by the Ministry of Justice This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit national archives or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: [email protected].

1. Under the Offender Rehabilitation Act (ORA) 2014, offenders serving short prison sentences are now released on licence and a period of post sentence supervision. Offences which would not have previously been counted, as offenders were not subject to probation supervision, now come into scope and are counted as SFOs. ↩

2. Rape Review. ↩

3. We publish SFO conviction figures with a one-year lag to allow time for most cases to complete the criminal justice process. ↩