Official Statistics

Quality report: Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin

Updated 25 October 2022

1. Contact

• Organisation unit - Knowledge, Analysis, and Intelligence (KAI)

• Name - Indirect Tax Receipts Monitoring, Indirect Taxes, Customs & Co-ordination

• Mail address – Three New Bailey, Salford M3 5FS

• Email - [email protected]

2. Data description

This publication provides a breakdown of historical receipts and clearances for all hydrocarbon oils duties.

The publication includes duty receipts statistics which are up to the latest full month before the bulletins release. It also includes statistics relating to clearances and production which are one month behind that of duty receipts.

Clearance statistics relate to when hydrocarbon oils become liable for duty to be paid to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) by registered UK businesses.

This publication only includes figures for previous years. Forecasts of future hydrocarbon oils receipts are produced and published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), and can be found on their website.

2.1 Classification system

Returns processed through the Enterprise Data Hub (EDH), the Enterprise Tax Management Platform (ETMP), and the Customs and Excise Core Accounting System (CECAS) detailed in the Source data section, help classify the data within the Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin and provide the main breakdowns into the different tax heads.

These forms and returns help classify the data within the Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin and provide the main breakdowns into the different tax heads.

A unique taxpayer reference (UTR) number is assigned to each registered UK trader. These UTRs are used during the data aggregation process.

2.2 Tax coverage

Hydrocarbon oil duties are indirect taxes charged following the production, import, or use of fuel in the UK.

This analysis focuses on UK registered hydrocarbon oils producers, importers, and consumers.

2.3 Variable definitions

Total petrol excise duty

Total petrol excise duty receipts which are calculated by summing together excise duty receipts from several different motor spirits, over 95% of which is unleaded petrol.

Total diesel excise duty

Total diesel excise duty receipts are calculated by summing together excise duty receipts from several different types of diesel.

Total hydrocarbon oils duty receipts

The total amount of hydrocarbon oils duty paid to HMRC. This is revenue reported in the bulletin.

Hydrocarbon oils duty clearances

The amount of hydrocarbon oils released onto the UK market for consumption.

Values are reported in millions of litres except road fuel gases which are reported in millions of kilograms.

2.4 Statistical unit

The unit in the statistics are businesses and other entities such as consumers required to pay hydrocarbon oils duties within the UK.

2.5 Time coverage

The statistics cover the time period from financial year 1990 to 1991 until the latest financial year for which a complete set of hydrocarbon oils duty returns are available. The statistics are aggregated into financial years. A financial year stretches from 1 April until 31 March the following calendar year.

3. Statistical processing

3.1 Source data

The data used to compile the Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin release comes from:

• CECAS which provides data for ultra-low sulphur and unleaded petrol, bioethanol, some types of diesel, other selected fuels, and other rebated oils

• EDH which provides data for unleaded petrol, recovered petrol vapour, bioethanol, the rest of diesel including heavy oil, all of other selected fuels, and other rebated oils

• ETMP which provides data on overall receipts.

3.2 Frequency of data collection

The data for hydrocarbon oils receipts are downloaded every month into databases for analysis and the data for hydrocarbon oils clearances are downloaded every 3 months for analysis in the Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin.

3.3 Data collection

Data on hydrocarbon oils duty receipts are sourced from EDH, ETMP, and CECAS. From ETMP and CECAS, this data is downloaded every month from databases. For EDH, data is extracted using an R script. This data is then collated in internal files. Collection is part of the team’s normal administrative procedures. Data is sense checked and checked against previous months and years for differing trends. Any unexpected trends are thoroughly investigated and explained.

3.4 Data validation

Data validation processes are as follows:

• source data is checked against the previous release within the Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin data collation file using an R script to identify any revisions and any revisions are clearly marked

• statistics are sense checked after compilation to ensure there are no mistakes or unexplained outliers

• there are no other related output datasets the data can be compared to

3.5 Data compilation

Overall hydrocarbon oils receipts are sourced from ETMP.

Receipts for each hydrocarbon oil type included in the bulletin are sourced from data in CECAS and EDH. The data for each hydrocarbon oil sourced from these two platforms is combined.

3.6 Adjustment

As a small portion of overall receipts are not classified, receipts for each hydrocarbon oil type are grossed as a proportion of overall hydrocarbon oils receipts for inclusion in the statistics.

4. Quality Management

4.1 Quality assurance

All official statistics produced by KAI must meet the standards in the Code of Practice for Statistics produced by the UK Statistics Authority and all analysts adhere to best practice as set out in the ‘Quality’ pillar.

Analytical Quality Assurance describes the arrangements and procedures put in place to ensure analytical outputs are error free and fit-for-purpose. It is an essential part of KAI’s way of working as the complexity of our work and the speed at which we are asked to provide advice means there is a risk of error.

Every piece of analysis is unique, and as a result there is no single quality assurance (QA) checklist that contains all the QA tasks needed for every project. Nonetheless, analysts in KAI use a checklist that summarises the key QA tasks, and is used as a starting point for teams when they are considering what QA actions to undertake.

Teams amend and adapt it as they see fit, to take account of the level of risk associated with their analysis, and the different QA tasks that are relevant to the work.

At the start of a project, during the planning stage, analysts and managers make a risk-based decision on what level of QA is required.

Analysts and managers construct a plan for all the QA tasks that will need to be completed, along with documentation on how each of those tasks are to be carried out and turn this list into a QA checklist specific to the project.

Analysts carry out the QA tasks, update the checklist, and pass onto the Senior Responsible Officer for review and eventual sign off.

4.2 Quality assessment

The QA for this project adhered to the framework described in ‘4.1 Quality assurance’ and the specific procedures undertaken were as follows:

Stage 1 – Specifying the question

Up to date documentation was agreed with stakeholders setting out outputs needed and by when; how the outputs will be used; and all the parameters required for the analysis.

Stage 2 – Developing the methodology

Methodology was agreed and developed in collaboration with stakeholders and others with relevant expertise, ensuring it was fit for purpose and would deliver the required outputs.

Stage 3 – Building and populating a model/piece of code

The bulletin was quality assessed as follows:

• analysis was produced using the most appropriate software and in line with good practice guidance

• data inputs were checked to ensure they were fit-for-purpose by reviewing available documentation and, where possible, through direct contact with data suppliers

• QA of the input data was carried out

• the analysis was audited by someone other than the lead analyst – checking code and methodology

Stage 4 – Running and testing the model/code

The bulletin was quality assessed as follows:

• results were compared with those produced in previous years and differences understood and determined to be genuine

• results were determined to be explainable and in line with expectations

Stage 5 – Drafting the final output

The final outputs were quality assessed as follows:

• checks were completed to ensure internal consistency (e.g. totals equal the sum of the components)

• the final outputs were independently proof read and checked

5. Relevance

5.1 User needs

This analysis is likely to be of interest to users under the following broad headings:

• national government – policy makers and MPs

• regional and local governments

• academia and research bodies

• media

• industry stakeholders

• general public

5.2 User satisfaction

The demand for the Oils Bulletin is measured by the number of unique page views which represents the number of visits during which the page was viewed at least once. Within the financial year ending in 2021, there were 855 unique page views.

Over time the Oils Bulletin has evolved as a result of information found out through consultations and surveys:

• there was a user engagement survey in 2010 which led to some changes to the bulletin (for example consolidating into one bulletin and including historical data)

• following this and the 2012 UKSA report, further changes were made to the bulletin, which included added commentary, graphs and background information

• in 2016, the frequency of the bulletin was then altered from monthly to quarterly as a result of a consultation

The Oils Bulletin was up for consultation in the 2021 survey. It was not reduced from a quarterly stagger but was instead published in June, and September in 2021 and in January, April, July, October on a regular basis from 2022.

5.3 Completeness

It is a legal requirement that all businesses are regulated and submit the relevant returns required. Penalties exist for non-compliance. The statistics contained in this report can therefore be considered as complete.

HMRC report estimates of the tax gap across all taxes and duties annually.

6. Accuracy and reliability

6.1 Overall accuracy

This bulletin is based on administrative data, and accuracy is addressed by eliminating non-sampling errors as much as possible through adherence to the quality assurance framework. The nature of the administrative data used may mean some errors exist in the recorded figures which would impact the accuracy of production estimates.

The potential sources of error include:

• companies entering incorrect information onto return forms

• human or software error when entering the data into systems

• companies not completing their returns by the required date

• mistakes in the programming code used to analyse the data and produce the statistics

6.2 Sampling error

No sampling takes place within the Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin.

6.3 Non-sampling error

Coverage error

The data used to produce these publications is exhaustive, and covers all hydrocarbon oil sold under UK jurisdiction which is subject to excise duty. This means that data on clearances and receipts refers to all oils sold legally, with the exception of duty-free oil, which is not counted for this purpose as by definition duty is not paid on these goods. Coverage error is therefore not relevant.

Measurement error

The main sources of measurement error could be categorised as respondent errors and include the following:

• companies may make errors entering their information onto return forms, whether this is done on paper or electronically

• company tax return data is subsequently entered onto HMRC systems either manually or by electronic transmission, which is another point at which data may be altered due to human or software error

Nonresponse error

The Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin is routine administrative data based on receipts and clearances that must be submitted, therefore nonresponse error is not relevant.

Processing error

It is possible that errors exist in the programming code used to analyse the data and produce the statistics. This risk is reduced through developing a good understanding of the code and thoroughly reviewing and testing the programs that are used.

6.4 Data revision

Deferments and late returns can influence the data used for the publications. For that reason, the last 3 months of data at any given time are labelled as ‘provisional’, although revisions tend to be minor. Where there are revisions they are clearly marked as ‘revised’, and information is given as to the reasons and scale of the revisions if appropriate.

Every 3 months on release of a new publication, previous data is reviewed and any revisions required are made. If revised data was not previously marked as provisional it is clearly highlighted in the statistics with a ‘[revised]’ markup within the statistical tables.

Planned revisions occur with the release of the annual receipts publication. This alignment occurs every March and involves the previous financial year. Receipts are considered provisional until the publication is released.

The United Kingdom Statistics Authority (UKSA) Code of Practice for Official Statistics requires all producers of Official Statistics to publish transparent guidance on the policy for revisions.

6.5 Seasonal adjustment

No seasonal adjustment occurs within the Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin and is therefore not relevant to the publication.

7. Timeliness and punctuality

7.1 Timeliness

The bulletin is published one month after the end of the reporting period for receipts. That is, the bulletin relating to hydrocarbon oils duties received in June is published at the end of July. The bulletin takes around one week to produce, with the data not being available until after the middle of the month. The remaining time is spent quality assuring the information in the bulletin.

7.2 Punctuality

In accordance with the Code of Practice for official statistics, the exact date of publication will be given not less than one calendar month before publication on both the Schedule of updates for HMRC’s statistics and the Research and statistics calendar of GOV.UK.

Any delays to the publication date will be announced on the HMRC National Statistics website.

The full publication calendar can be found on both the Schedule of updates for HMRC’s statistics and the Research and statistics calendar of GOV.UK.

There have been no incidents of late publication of the bulletin since the previous Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin Quality Report was produced in 2013 which is available through the UK Government Web Archive from the National Archive.

8. Coherence and comparability

8.1 Comparability over time

As these statistics range back to 1990, some of the duties were not in place at the start of the data. Biodiesel and bioblended duties were not charged until 2001 and Road fuel gases until 1997. Resultantly this data is not comparable before those years. Many hydrocarbon oils duties were also only charged for a few years, and, resultantly, data is not available outside of these years.

Total hydrocarbon oils quantities do not include ‘road fuel gases (natural gas/liquefied petroleum gas)’ as these are reported in kilograms rather than litres.

The breakdown of receipts statistics for March 1990 are estimates based on historic quantities released for consumption and duty rates, as only the total receipts figure is available.

8.2 Coherence – cross domain

No known issues regarding coherence between domains.

Coherence – sub-annual and annual statistics

No known issues regarding coherence between sub-annual and annual statistics.

Coherence – national accounts

The statistics are coherent with the national accounts framework, but users should note that hydrocarbon oils duty revenue is reported on a cash basis by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), i.e., when cash payments are received, but within some national accounts publications, such as the Office of National Statistics Public Sector Finances publication, hydrocarbon oils duty revenue is published on an accrued basis, i.e., when tax liability was accrued by taxpayers.

8.3 Coherence – internal

No known issues regarding coherence between internal datasets.

9. Accessibility and clarity

9.1 Publication

The data is publicly available within the Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin page and is published at 9.30 am on the pre-announced date of release.

The Oils Bulletin commentary is published in accessible Hypertext Markup Language (HTML) format, as generated within internal UK government HTML Markdown software. The Oils Bulletin data tables which accompany the commentary are published in accessible Open Document Spreadsheet (ODS) format.

Accompanying the bulletin is a background and references document which includes:

• definitions for oils duties and products

• details on how oils duties are levied and paid

• methodology for producing oils duties statistics

• statistical quality information, including HMRC’s rounding policy

• hyperlinks to relevant pages where bulletin users can find more information

There is also an historical oils duty rates document.

Both historic duty rates and background and references are published in HTML format.

Following major changes in September 2020, substantial formatting changes were made to the Oils Bulletin to ensure alignment with accessibility regulations for digital content from public bodies as legislated within the Public Sector Bodies (Websites and Mobile Applications) (No. 2) Accessibility Regulations 2018.

This reformatting of the Oils Bulletin formed part of HMRC’s wider accessible documents policy. Changes made to the Oils Bulletin included:

• replacement of Portable Document Format (PDF) files previously used for statistics commentary with HTML documents for the same purpose

• migration of all oils duties background, references and rates information from Microsoft Excel tables to HTML documents

• migration of data tables from Microsoft Excel to ODS format

• simplification of language used to avoid jargon and clear explanations used to describe all non-decorative features

An accessibility report was first produced to identify required format changes. The overriding aim of this reformat was to improve how perceivable, operable, understandable and robust the Oils Bulletin is for all users, in line with the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.1) design principles for accessibility.

9.2 Online databases

This analysis is not used in any online databases.

9.3 Micro-data access

Access to this data is not possible in micro-data form, due to HMRC’s responsibilities around maintaining confidentiality of taxpayer information.

9.4 Other

There are not any other dissemination formats available for this analysis.

9.5 Documentation on methodology

Background and references to the Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin is publicly available to users within the Oils Bulletin page.

9.6 Quality documentation

All official statistics produced by KAI, must meet the standards in the Code of Practice for Statistics produced by the UK Statistics Authority and all analysts adhere to best practice as set out in the ‘Quality’ pillar.

Information about quality procedures for this analysis can be found in section 4 of this document.

10. Cost and burden

The quarterly update to the Bulletin takes up to 4 working days in total for the main analyst to complete and receive QA from other analysts, the team leader, and the person signing off the release. The annual cost, therefore, is around 16 days a year (4 days per bulletin completed 4 times a year).

There is no respondent burden since the data is taken from administrative sources which are used by taxpayers to make their usual returns to HMRC.

11. Confidentiality

11.1 Confidentiality – policy

HMRC has a legal duty to maintain the confidentiality of taxpayer information.

Section 18(1) of the Commissioners for Revenue and Customs Act 2005 (CRCA) sets out our duty of confidentiality.

This analysis complies with this requirement.

11.2 Confidentiality – data treatment

There are no special rules for confidentiality or data treatment in these statistics.

Before going live, the bulletin is classified as pre-released National Statistics, and is therefore subject to a restricted protective marking when referred to in email correspondence and is subject to the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, which is strictly enforced.