Official Statistics

Quality report: Monthly property transactions completed in the UK with value of £40,000 or above

Updated 24 November 2022

Contact

• Organisation unit - Knowledge, Analysis and Intelligence (KAI)

• Name - Indirect Tax Receipts Monitoring, Indirect Taxes, Customs & Co-ordination

• Mail address – Three New Bailey, Salford M3 5FS

• Email - [email protected]

Data description

The ‘Monthly property transactions completed in the UK with value of £40,000 or above’ National Statistics (MPT) provides monthly provisional estimates of residential and non-residential property transactions in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, alongside at aggregated UK level. A seasonally adjusted time series is also provided at UK level for users.

For Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) and Land Transaction Tax (LTT) statistical quality information, go to Revenue Scotland and Welsh Revenue Authority (WRA) respectively.

Accompanying the statistics is commentary intended to explain trends to users and how these trends interact with external events, such as property tax rates and changing market dynamics. Published property transactions statistics are up to the latest full month.

The MPT publication is produced by analysts within the Knowledge, Analysis and Intelligence (KAI) directorate of HMRC. Thorough quality assurance (QA) procedures are followed for each publication before it is signed off by senior management and published on GOV.UK.

Classification system

For property transactions completed in England and Northern Ireland, published statistics records information from SDLT returns as submitted by taxpayers whenever an interest in real or leasehold property is transferred on sale, or a notifiable lease is granted.

Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) replaced SDLT in Scotland from 1 April 2015 and this data is now provided to HMRC by Revenue Scotland via data-feed for use with the MPT publication.

Land Transaction Tax (LTT) replaced SDLT in Wales from 1 April 2018 and HMRC use data published by the WRA within the MPT publication.

All transactions statistics within the MPT publication are reported based upon when the transaction was completed, as specified within taxpayer returns.

Statistical processing

Source data

Transaction data for SDLT (England and Northern Ireland) is derived from the HMRC Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) database.

LBTT data is supplied to HMRC on a monthly basis by Revenue Scotland, which is then downloaded and processed for inclusion within the publication.

Statistics for LTT are supplied to HMRC by WRA for inclusion within the publication.

Frequency of data collection

The data is downloaded for SDLT and LBTT at the start of the second week each month. WRA provide data for LTT on the second Tuesday of each month.

Data collection

Data for SDLT and LBTT are aggregated and downloaded each month using SAS or R. LTT data is supplied by email from WRA. The data is then processed using R, including seasonal adjustment.

Data validation

Data validation processes are as follows:

• source data is checked against the previous release for any revisions every release and any revisions outside of the standard window for provisional data are clearly marked

• statistics are sense checked after compilation to ensure there are no mistakes or unexplained outliers

• data may be compared to external or public sources to validate that trends are consistent

Data compilation

SDLT and LBTT data is aggregated on a monthly level using SAS. This is then combined with the monthly data for LTT provided by WRA and processed using R. Once the monthly series is collated, an additional seasonally adjusted series is calculated, along with aggregated quarterly and yearly totals.

Adjustment

SDLT returns can be submitted up to 14 days after completion, with similar windows existing for the LTT and LBTT regimes. As a result, not all transactions will have been received by HMRC for the most recent month at time of production. An upward adjustment is applied to data from the latest month to estimate the scale of these unreceived returns. This estimate is based upon an average of transactional change during the previous full financial year.

Quality Management

Quality assurance

All official statistics produced by KAI must meet the standards in the Code of Practice for Statistics produced by the UK Statistics Authority and all analysts adhere to best practice as set out in the ‘Quality’ pillar.

Analytical Quality Assurance describes the arrangements and procedures put in place to ensure analytical outputs are error free and fit-for-purpose. It is an essential part of KAI’s way of working as the complexity of our work and the speed at which we are asked to provide advice means there is a risk of error.

Every piece of analysis is unique, and as a result there is no single quality assurance (QA) checklist that contains all the QA tasks needed for every project. Nonetheless, analysts in KAI use a checklist that summarises the key QA tasks, and is used as a starting point for teams when they are considering what QA actions to undertake.

Teams amend and adapt it as they see fit, to take account of the level of risk associated with their analysis, and the different QA tasks that are relevant to the work.

At the start of a project, during the planning stage, analysts and managers make a risk-based decision on what level of QA is required.

Analysts and managers construct a plan for all the QA tasks that will need to be completed, along with documentation on how each of those tasks are to be carried out and turn this list into a QA checklist specific to the project.

Analysts carry out the QA tasks, update the checklist, and pass onto the Senior Responsible Officer for review and eventual sign off.

Quality assessment

The QA for this project adhered to the framework described in ‘4.1 Quality assurance’ and the specific procedures undertaken were as follows:

Stage 1 – Specifying the question

Up to date documentation was agreed with stakeholders setting out outputs needed and by when; how the outputs will be used; and all the parameters required for the analysis.

Stage 2 – Developing the methodology

Methodology was agreed and developed in collaboration with stakeholders and others with relevant expertise, ensuring it was fit for purpose and would deliver the required outputs.

Stage 3 – Building and populating a model/piece of code

The statistics was quality assessed as follows:

• analysis was produced using the most appropriate software and in line with good practice guidance

• data inputs were checked to ensure they were fit-for-purpose by reviewing available documentation and, where possible, through direct contact with data suppliers

• QA of the input data was carried out

• the analysis was audited by someone other than the lead analyst – checking code and methodology

Stage 4 – Running and testing the model/code

The statistics was quality assessed as follows:

• results were compared with those produced in previous years and differences understood and determined to be genuine

• results were determined to be explainable and in line with expectations

Stage 5 – Drafting the final output

The final outputs were quality assessed as follows:

• checks were completed to ensure internal consistency (e.g. totals equal the sum of the components)

• the final outputs were independently proofread and checked

Relevance

User needs

The MPT publication is primarily used by national and local media sources, housing market commentators and other government departments (OGD) to monitor the performance of the housing market and related government policies.

The commentary and content of the publication are regularly reviewed to ensure they remain relevant to user needs.

User satisfaction

The demand for the MPT Publication is measured by the number of unique page views which represents the number of visits during which the page was viewed at least once. Within the year from November 2021 to October 2022, there were 12,952 unique page views.

Informal consultations are conducted when appropriate, for example when changing the provision or coverage of the published data, or revising the methodology used. These will generally involve contacting known users of the published statistics to ask specific questions or request feedback. These questions would also be published on the website adjacent/linked to the publication in order to capture users with whom we have had no previous contact.

The results of user consultations would then be published on the website. The latest consultation took place in 2008 and the results can be found alongside the most recent publications.

Accuracy and reliability

Overall accuracy

Statistics within the MPT publication are based on administrative data used by HMRC during it’s standard operational activities (collecting tax). As such, they provide a reliable and timely indicator of the number of property transactions in the UK.

Sampling error

No sampling takes place within the MPT publication.

Non-sampling error

Coverage error

Transactions are only reported when a tax return has been received, meaning they don’t capture instances where a return is required but not completed, such as during tax avoidance or evasion activity. The statistics also only report transactions where the consideration is above £40,000, meaning transactions below this threshold also aren’t captured within the statistics.

Measurement error

There are likely to be some inaccuracies within the data due to reporting or keying errors, such as misclassification between residential and non-residential. The impact of this is limited through the dataset being cleansed and filtered through automated data feeds prior to use.

Another source of inaccuracy is caused by a proportion of records within the SDLT database not containing the required geographical information and preventing correct reporting within the publication at country level.

These incomplete records are apportioned between England and Northern Ireland on a pro rata basis to ensure consistent UK totals, but this is an ongoing source of uncertainty within the source data.

To reflect inaccuracies inherent to the dataset, the published estimates are rounded to the nearest 1,000 transactions.

Nonresponse error

Some returns may be submitted late to HMRC, outside of the normal window for submission. For this reason, we categorise statistics from the latest month as ‘provisional estimates’ and the following 2 months as ‘provisional’.

Processing error

It is possible that errors exist in the programming code used to analyse the data and produce the statistics. This risk is reduced through developing a good understanding of the code and thoroughly reviewing and testing the programs that are used.

Data revision

SDLT transactions data is downloaded for completed transactions during all months of the current financial year. As such, historic months beyond the latest 3 provisional months are also subject to minor revisions as returns continue to be received by HMRC and the SDLT database updated.

When reporting begins for a new financial year, HMRC continue to download SDLT data for completed transactions during the previous financial year for 3 months (May, June and July).

The data feed supplied to HMRC by Revenue Scotland also provides LBTT transactions data from the previous financial year for 3 months. LTT data as published by the WRA is revised back to April 2015, providing HMRC with the latest transactions statistics for Wales.

Seasonal adjustment

The statistics are split into the residential and non-residential property market. As the number of property transactions in the UK is highly seasonal, with increased activity during summer months and less in winter, seasonally adjusted time series are also provided at UK aggregate level to allow for analysis of medium and long term trends.

The seasonally adjusted data series are estimated using X-13ARIMA software, as standard for National Statistics. Adjustments are made to the seasonal adjustment model for both the time of year and calendar, including corrections for the position of Easter holidays and the number of trading days during particular months.

Seasonally adjusted time series are revised back to April 2010 within each MPT publication due to the functionality of the X-13ARIMA software used. April 2010 was selected as a start parameter as a point at which the housing market had stabilised following the global financial recession from around late 2007.

If a month of transaction data is impacted by a significant external effect, it is treated as an outlier for the purposes of seasonal adjustment. Example of this include March 2016, caused by increased amounts of taxpayers completing before the introduction of higher rates for additional residential properties from April 2016, and between April 2020 and October 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Timeliness and punctuality

Timeliness

The MPT publication release timetable is designed to provide a balance between accuracy and timeliness for users, being released around 3 weeks after the latest full month of data being reported has ended.

Release of the publication is timed to roughly coincide with other property statistics, such as those published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), allowing users to collect housing market information from various sources and contributing to public debate.

In line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, MPT publication dates are announced publicly no later than 28 days before the date of intended release. Go to Research and statistics for the latest upcoming release dates.

HMRC also publishes an annual publication plan on GOV.UK.

Punctuality

There have been no incidents of late or delayed publication since the previous MPT publication quality report was published in 2013.

This reformatting of the MPT publication formed part of HMRC’s wider accessible documents policy.

Changes made to the MPT publication included:

• replacement of Portable Document Format (PDF) files previously used for statistics

commentary with HTML documents for the same purpose

• migration of all MPT background, references and rates information from Microsoft Excel workbooks to HTML documents

• migration of data tables from Microsoft Excel to ODS format

• simplification of language used to avoid jargon and clear explanations used to describe all non-decorative features

An accessibility report was first produced to identify required format changes. The overriding aim of this reformat was to improve how ‘perceivable, operable, understandable and robust’ the MPT publication is for all users, in line with the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.1) design principles for accessibility.

The statistics are taken directly from the source data that is collected for administrative purposes with little manipulation between source and publication. Our publications directly reflect the tax system definitions (of which users are aware) and therefore the administrative data are an accurate and appropriate data source.

Coherence and comparability

Coherence

By definition, there are no other sources that allow for comparisons, as HMRC is the only organisation which publishes property transactions statistics from tax returns at England, Northern Ireland and aggregated UK level.

For related property tax statistics at Scotland and Wales level, go to Revenue Scotland and WRA respectively.

The data used to compile the MPT publication comes from several sources:

• HMRC SDLT database for property transactions completed in England and Northern Ireland

• monthly data feed supplied by Revenue Scotland to HMRC for LBTT transactions completed in Scotland

• monthly data published by WRA for LTT transactions completed in Wales

All our geographic breakdowns are done according to standard units, so regional breakdowns will be comparable with other published statistics. Furthermore, all definitions within our data, such as type of property, are governed by the tax system, which is embedded in users understanding of the market. They are therefore commonly understood by the user.

Comparability

Both the residential and non-residential historic time series begin from the 2005 to 2006 financial year, allowing for direct comparisons over the time series by users.

A change was made to SDLT in 2008, following which transactions where the consideration was less than £40,000 were no longer required to submit SDLT returns. The published time series were revised back to 2005 at that time to ensure consistency.

Data prior to 2005 was collected on a different basis to SDLT data used within the MPT publication. It was based upon survey rather than administrative data from the ‘Survey of Property Transactions’, which only covered England and Wales. This historic time series is therefore not comparable to the published MPT data.

Comparability over time of property tax rates and transactions at constant prices is reliant upon the deflator used. HMRC uses the Inflation and price indices series published by the ONS, and values are therefore subject to any biases this series might present.

Trade offs between output quality components

As the data relates to all completed property transactions for which a tax return is due to the relevant authority (whether payment is due or not), in general there have been no trade offs which have necessitated balancing different aspects of quality.

Assessment of user needs and perceptions

Demand for the MPT publication is measured by number of unique page views on GOV.UK, representing the amount of visits during which the page was viewed at least once. During May 2020 to May 2021, there were 16,724 unique page views.

Informal consultations are conducted when appropriate, for example when changing the provision or coverage of the published data in 2008, or revising the methodology used. These will generally involve contacting known users of the published statistics to ask specific questions or request feedback.

Accessibility and clarity

Publication

The MPT publication is publicly available on GOV.UK.

Publication takes place on the 21st of each month at 9:30am. If the 21st falls on a weekend or a Monday, the publication is delayed until 9:30am on the following Tuesday. Unless the Monday is a bank holiday when publication is delayed to 9:30am on the following Wednesday.

The MPT publication commentary is published in the Hypertext Markup Language (HTML) format, generated by internal UK government HTML Markdown software. The accompanying data tables are published in Open Document Spreadsheet (ODS) format. A background and references HTML is also provided.

The background and references HTML includes:

• definitions of property taxes

• details of how property taxes are levied and paid

• methodology for producing MPT statistics

• statistical quality information, including HMRC’s rounding and revisions policies

• hyperlinks to relevant pages where publication users can find more information

From October 2020, substantial formatting changes were made to the MPT publication to ensure alignment with accessibility regulations for digital content from public bodies as legislated within the Public Sector Bodies (Websites and Mobile Applications) (No. 2) Accessibility Regulations 2018.

Following major changes in October 2020, substantial formatting changes were made to the statistics to ensure alignment with accessibility regulations for digital content from public bodies as legislated within the Public Sector Bodies (Websites and Mobile Applications) (No. 2) Accessibility Regulations 2018.

This reformatting of the Monthly Property Transactions Statistics formed part of HMRC’s wider accessible documents policy. Changes made to the statistics included:

• replacement of Portable Document Format (PDF) files previously used for statistics commentary with HTML documents for the same purpose

• migration of all background and references and from Microsoft Excel tables to HTML documents

• migration of data tables from Microsoft Excel to ODS format

• simplification of language used to avoid jargon and clear explanations used to describe all non-decorative features

An accessibility report was first produced to identify required format changes. The overriding aim of this reformat was to improve how perceivable, operable, understandable and robust the Monthly Property Transactions Statistics are for all users, in line with the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.1) design principles for accessibility.

Online databases

This analysis is not used in any online databases.

Micro-data access

Access to this data is not possible in micro-data form, due to HMRC’s responsibilities around maintaining confidentiality of taxpayer information.

Other

There aren’t any other dissemination formats available for this analysis.

Documentation on methodology

Background and references to the Monthly Property Transactions Statistics is publicly available to users on the landing page of the statistics.

Quality documentation

All official statistics produced by KAI, must meet the standards in the Code of Practice for Statistics produced by the UK Statistics Authority and all analysts adhere to best practice as set out in the ‘Quality’ pillar.

Information about quality procedures for this analysis can be found in section 4 of this document.

Cost and burden

The monthly update to the publication takes up to 4 working days in total for the main analyst to complete and receive QA from other analysts, the team leader, and senior staff signing off the release. The annual cost, therefore, is approximately 48 days per year (4 days per publication completed 12 times a year).

There is no respondent burden since the data is taken from administrative sources which are used by taxpayers to make their usual returns to HMRC.

Confidentiality

Confidentiality – policy

HMRC has a legal duty to maintain the confidentiality of taxpayer information.

Section 18(1) of the Commissioners for Revenue and Customs Act 2005 (CRCA) sets out our duty of confidentiality.

This analysis complies with this requirement.

Confidentiality – data treatment

Before going live, the MPT publication is classified as pre-released National Statistics, and is therefore subject to a restricted protective marking when referred to in email correspondence, in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

A limited number of HMRC and HM Treasury (HMT) stakeholders are provided pre-release access to the statistics. The amount of individuals with pre-access is regularly reviewed and HMRC maintains records of those with current pre-release access to the departments National Statistics.